By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
We finally got a winning week, going 4-3 and if not for two inexcusable field goal, misses Houston probably cashes the long shot parlay. NFL games at Thanksgiving were not so kind. We went 0-2 picking against the spread and missed our parlay thanks to the Ravens laying an egg against Cincinnati. We did hit on four of our Thanksgiving player props (good work Brandon Aubrey (over 1.5 field goals), George Pickens (26+ longest catch), Mark Andrews (over 3.5 catches), and Jordan Love (under 31.5 passes). We still have some momentum heading into the weekend, so let’s get some more winners.
The No Free Lunch Award: RUTGERS
Early in the week, Rutgers was catching 31.5 points against Ohio State. The public quickly decided that was too many points as the line was bet down to 28.5 by game time. For 56 minutes the public looked like they were on the right side, as Rutgers offense did just enough. All that was left was for Ohio State to run out the final four minutes of game clock and head to Ann Arbor with a 35-9 win. However, in sports betting you are never safe until the final whistle is blown. Ohio State busted open a 50 yard touchdown run with just under four minutes left, thus crushing the soul of Rutgers bettors.
This week’s plays
BYU (-16.5) vs. UCF: BYU comes into this game with a point to prove. Cougars have only lost once this year, to the fifth-ranked team in the country on the road and is getting absolutely no attention for the playoff. Pair that with many reasons to fade UCF in this spot and I think the Cougars can get lots of points on the board. UCF in its last 3 road games has scored a total of 23 points. Lets look for Bear Bachmeier to make plenty of plays and keep this BYU offense humming along.
2 leg parlay: UAB team total UNDER 28.5 / LSU team total UNDER 17.5: If there has ever been a team that has given up on a season UAB is it. The Blazers are 3-8, have lost four in a row, dropped their past two games by a combined score of 101-42, and one of its players just tried to kill two of his teammates. The absolute last thing this team wants to do right now is get on a plane (or bus) and play its final game of the season under an interim head coach in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Tulsa hasn’t been very good in its own right, but the defense has been the better side in wins. LSU travels to Oklahoma to face a team looking to potentially secure a spot in the playoff. The Oklahoma defense has been solid all season, so let’s hope it’s business as usual for the Sooners.
Washington (+7.5) vs. Oregon: Simply put, I do not believe in this Oregon team. Oregon has had one of the softest schedules of the entire season of teams in the top 15. Washington is a tough place to play on the road and I love the fact we get over a touchdown here. This feels like a game where Oregon is just doing everything its can to grind out a win and get to the end of the season with one loss. The Washington offense operates at a much higher rate at home (0.9 more yards per play, plus-0.6 turnover margin). Win the turnover battle on Saturday and Washington can keep this inside one possession.
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Yes the Titans might be 1-10, but they’ve quietly put together a string of three games that have been pretty competitive, all against potential or sure-fire playoff teams. Cam Ward seems to be learning more as a rookie and looks much more comfortable in the offense than he did at the start of the season. Jacksonville, on the other hand, seem to always find itself in the middle of one-possession games. The Jaguars are 7-4, but have seen eight of their 11 games end inside of a one score, including all five of their road games.
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: What started as such a promising season for the Buccaneers has turned to an injury ravaged fight for survival by Week 13. All of the top offensive options are currently injured for the Buccaneers leaving them with a previously retired and past high school football coach Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Arizona is also on a backup quarterback, but Jacoby Brissett has been quite serviceable in this Cardinals offense, even setting an NFL record for most completed passes in a game a few weeks back. The Cardinals just have more rhythm on offense right now, so the 1:00 Eastern time kickoff for a West Coast team does seem too alarming for this one. The Cardinals are also going to get some class relief after playing five of their last six against current playoff teams.
Longshot parlay of the week (+596):
- Wisconsin ML @ Minnesota: Wisconsin was dreadful early in the year, but has been playing much better as of late.
- Clemson ML @ South Carolina: South Carolina’s season is over. Klubnik would love to end his career with a win on the road against a rival.
- New York Jets ML vs. Falcons: The Falcons season is going south and the Jets are much more efficient with Tyrod Taylor in at QB.
Futures Market Outlook
For this week’s futures market outlook we take a dive into the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year market. The current favorite is Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers Wide Receiver, at +120. McMillan has put up some nice numbers as a rookie, averaging 65 yds/gm and scoring five TDs. Emeka Egbuka is currently the second choice at +250, but his numbers have dwindled a little with the injury to Mike Evans and now will be missing his QB Baker Mayfield. Let’s take a look at a couple of other options, as we always like to take chances on some bigger prices.
TreVeyon Henderson (+1000) – It took the Ohio State product about half a season to break his way into the Patriots running back stable, but now that he is there he seems to be the main choice. There is a very good chance the Patriots end up with the number 1 overall seed in the AFC this season. Henderson has averaged 81 yards/gm over the last five, scoring four touchdowns in that span. Patriots still have games against the Bills, Dolphins, and Giants, who all struggle mightily to stop the run. If Henderson can mimic his last five games in his final five, I think he has a real shot.
Cam Ward (+20000) – Look, Cam Ward probably and most likely is not winning this award. But why not skip a morning coffee from Starbucks for the chance to make a thousand dollars? No other rookies really have outstanding numbers nor are they doing things on a weekly basis that puts this market to bed. Ward has thrown for 250+ in three of his last six and the Titans are playing more and more competitive games. If Ward can lead the Titans to a couple wins with some 300-yard games sprinkled in there somewhere, I don’t think it’s completely unfathomable that he could potentially find himself in the mix late in the season for this award. It’s not like he wasn’t the number one overall pick, plus the other QB in the mix is Jaxson Dart and he is dealing with a concussion. Couple that with the success of Jameis Winston, and the Giants could play it very safe with Dart at the end of the season and he could miss multiple games.