By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Overall, not a great week last week at The Open, but one of our longshot picks, Lucas Herbert, at least gave us something to watch for the majority of the weekend. Herbert tied for the lowest score ever shot in a major by shooting 62 on Friday and taking a lead into the weekend at 275/1 odds. Herbert lost the lead, but hung around and a birdie on 10 on Sunday put him within a shot of the lead. Unfortunately, like most everyone else, Herbert got stuck in neutral and could not fire up a rally on the final eight holes. Ryan Fox was the one capturing the claret jug in the end after making birdies on 16 and 18 to beat Cameron Young by a shot. It was Young’s second close call in a major this season after losing a lead on Sunday at The Masters to Rory McIlroy. Young will head into 2027 ready to stamp his name onto at least one of these major trophies (or jacket). Fox, meanwhile, joins Aaron Rai and Wyndham Clark as fairly unlikely major winners this year as all three were over 50/1 odds heading into the week of their respective win.
The major season might be over for the bigger names that we all know, but the next month of tournaments is the major season for some of the lesser known names on the PGA Tour. It is win or go back to the Korn Ferry for a lot of players, while some will be looking to solidify their spot in the FedEx Cup Playoffs with good finishing placements. The first tournament of this stretch is the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities this week.
Past 3M Championship winners, odds, and trends
- 2025, Kurt Kitayama (35/1) – Made five cuts with two top-five finishes in the 10 events prior.
- 2024, Jhonattan Vegas (75/1) – Made six cuts in his 10 prior events, with three top-25 finishes.
- 2023, Lee Hodges (80/1) – Made the cut six times and finished in the top 25 three times in the 10 events prior.
- 2022, Tony Finau (13/1) – Made nine cuts in the 10 events prior, with three top-five finishes.
- 2021, Cameron Champ (125/1) – Made five cuts with two top-20 finishes in 10 events prior.
3M Championshup
All majors for 2026 might be in the books, but there is no such thing as a down season in the world of golf betting. The next three or four tournaments are a wonderful chance to cash some tickets. For the first time in this event’s history, Scottie Scheffler is in the field. It’s hard to believe Scottie will be at his highest level coming off two weeks in Europe and with his putter being cold once again. Scheffler opens as the +270 favorite, as the rest of the field is fairly weak. I think this will give lots of opportunities going down the odds board. When we look at past winners of this event, recent form is not necessary to play well here, but the trend we do see is a type of player that does well here. Four of the five most recent winners are guys who have lots of power, and are streaky putters, and while Hodges isn’t necessarily a power type player, he was still above average in driving distance the year that he won. This week, our card will be littered with guys who can hit the ball a long way, and have been showing flashes with the putter.
THE BETTING CARD (the Without Scheffler market)
- PIERCESON COODY (32/1) .21 UNITS TO WIN 6.75 UNITS – When you combine driving and putting, Coody is one of the most fitting players on tour. He constantly ranks 10 yards or more in adjusted driving distance and gains strokes putting more than he doesn’t. Coody is currently on a streak with the putter gaining strokes in six of his last eight events and comes back to the states off a tie for 28th at The Open Championship. He also finished tied for third at this same event last year.
- COREY CONNERS (38/1) .15 UNITS TO WIN 5.7 UNITS – Don’t look now, but one of the worst putters on tour is starting to make a few. Take out the last three starts where he has gained strokes putting and Conners had only gained in five out of his last 22 starts. During this streak of a decently hot putter, the irons have stayed true and Corey now has posted a top 25 in three of his last four starts. Conners has never been out of the top 25 at the comp course Innisbrook.
- BEN JAMES (40/1) .15 UNITS TO WIN 6 UNITS – Looking to catch lightning in a bottle for a guy catching some lightning in a bottle right now. James is red hot at the moment hovering near the top of the leaderboard on any tournament he plays. James ran off a streak of 11 top-5 finishes in 12 events during his senior year at Virginia before finishing tied for 16th at the NCAA finals. James then came to the PGA Tour where he has posted three top-25 finishes in five events to go along with back-to-back placements in the top 15. He finished tied for fourth in Puerto Rico last week. No reason he can’t take down this field.
- JORDAN SMITH (41/1) .15 UNITS TO WIN 6.15 UNITS – Maybe an outside the box pick here, and could easily have jet lag this week following The Open, but Smith has really been hitting it nicely as of late. The kryptonite for Smith has always been the putter, but when it’s working he ‘s a near lock to finish in the top 20. Smith is coming off back-to-back weeks of gaining strokes with the putter. Let’s hope it can stay hot.
- JOHNNY KEEFER (51/1) .125 UNITS TO WIN 6.37 UNITS – This kid had the most potential of any rookies when the season started, but he had a very slow start to the year. But Keefer returns to the states after a very good showing (T3) at the Scottish Open and a made cut at The Open. Similar to Smith and Conners, it’s the putter that seems to not cooperate often, but the putter was hot across the pond. Keefer has only gained strokes putting in 6 events this year, and four of those were top 10s.
- WILLIAM MOUW (66/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.02 UNITS – A lot of things to like about Mouw this week. Finished tied for seventh here last year, and like Coody ranks very highly in adjusted driving distance. Mouw’s irons have been red hot, but the putter hasn’t. Another guy we just need a hot putting week from to have a chance.
- TAYLOR PENDRITH (72/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.47 UNITS – Going to draw a line through last week for Pendrith and say that the coastal course wasn’t the fit for him. This one, however, is much better. Pendrith lost to Steven Fisk in a playoff two weeks ago at the ISCO, so let’s hope Pendrith finds that form again. He has a solo fifth to his name at this course two years ago as well.
- MATTI SCHMID (100/1) .065 UNITS TO WIN 6.56 UNITS – Just a number grab here on someone who should fit the profile of what we are looking for this week. Schmid has back-to-back top 25s and like Coody, when you think of guys who drive it a long way and are streaky with the putter, Schmid comes to mind. It’s a weak field and while Schmid hasn’t posted eye-opening results at the 3M or at Innisbrook, he has only missed one cut in a combined seven tries at the two courses.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOTS
- ZACH BAUCHOU 110/1
- AARON WISE 135/1
- MATTHIEU PAVON 175/1
- DAVID LIPSKY 185/1
- JOE HIGHSMITH 260/1
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