By JOHN MOOREHOUSE
You know things are going well when members of Vol Nation start posting “Smells Like 98!”
The aroma emanating from Rocky Top right now is more familiar. And much more recent.
After making a slew of costly mistakes on Saturday night at Neyland Stadium to lose 33-27 to Oklahoma, the 2025 Vols seem like a carbon copy of the 2023 team.
Maybe I’m being unkind… to the 2023 team. Two years ago, by the time the College Football Playoff committee issued its first rankings of the season, Tennessee was buried in the pack at 16th. When the first rankings of 2025 come out this week, the Vols may not be ranked at all.
Tennessee’s players and coaches have no one to blame but themselves for their current predicament. The Vols arguably let the Georgia game slip through their fingers but, hey, that was Georgia. And yes UT did get somewhat humbled at Alabama, but the Vols haven’t won in Tuscaloosa since back in 2004 (so long ago that Josh Heupel was a graduate assistant for this same Sooners team and yours truly was in his first year covering the Vols for the Kingsport Times-News).
This loss to Oklahoma felt different. The Sooners have a strong team this year but playing at Neyland and at night? With the black jerseys and everything? This was a very winnable game, and the Vols just couldn’t execute nearly well enough to get the job done. Moreover, it’s the type of game that a playoff-caliber program should win.
Oklahoma led 16-10 at the half, despite getting outgained in total yardage 255-99, and the Vols might as well have gift-wrapped each and every one of those points. Joey Aguilar was especially generous, committing three turnovers, all before hafltime. Aguilar has exceeded my own modest expectations coming into the season but he’s also established a nasty trend of making huge gaffes in pivotal moments: the pick-6 interception at Alabama, and then getting sacked and coughing up the ball for a scoop and score by the Sooners’ R Mason Thomas. Aguilar might have a gaudy passing total but, when it matters, he increasingly looks like a Sun Belt quarterback playing in the Southeastern Conference – over his head.
Aguilar isn’t the only culprit. Tennessee had no answer in terms of scheme and blocking for the Oklahoma defensive front, which yielded 63 net yards on 35 rushes. Kicker Max Gilbert made field goals from 45 and 48 yards, but somehow missed from 37.
Coming out hot to start the third quarter, the Vols regained a short-lived 17-16 lead, then got the ball back by recovering a Sooners fumble, but the offense went three and out. Oklahoma answered with a touchdown, UT went three-and-out again, and the Sooners put more points on the board with a field goal.
Tennessee had a chance in theory down to the final moment, but a turnover on downs at the 4:18 mark preceded by a weird series of decisions – letting the clock run down, taking timeout, then making the inexplicable play call to throw it to a freshman tight end on fourth-and-1 – a pass that Aguilar doinked off Jack Van Dorselaer’s facemask – seemed to deflate the team and the crowd. That sequence also isn’t going to diminish the recent criticisms of Heupel’s clock management in crucial scenarios, but I’ll leave others to dissect all of that.
So, as the Vols enter their last open week of the season, they find themselves out of the playoff running with November having just started. Meanwhile, the most anticipated game left on the docket is the season finale against Vanderbilt, and the two-loss Commodores have more to play for than the Vols – and who would have predicted that back in August?
It’s evidence of how the College Football Playoff, and NIL, and the transfer portal have combined to change expectations in the modern game. Getting into the playoffs at least provides an opportunity, and a chance to induce more financial commitment. Indiana is an excellent example of this. In terms of talent, the Hoosiers weren’t one of the top 12 teams in the country last season. But they used that playoff berth as a springboard to raise more financial resources, upgrade their roster, and now Indiana is a legitimate contender for the title.
Just get in the door, like Indiana and SMU last year, and you’re still at the party. The Vols? Not on the list. Sorry!
Here’s the real issue. As a basketball coach at the mid-major level told me a few years ago, and this is before spending on players truly skyrocketed, buyer fatigue is a real threat. You can only ask your fanbase to pay and pay and pay for so long, without tangible success, before they’re either going to stop paying or demand a regime change. That’s why we’ve seen unprecedented turnover in the coaching circuit. Seven (EDIT: make that eight after Auburn axed Hugh Freeze on Sunday afternoon) programs in power conferences already canned their coaches, and November just started.
Given what all he has accomplished at Tennessee, Heupel is still playing with house money. But his stack is dwindling. Saturday’s result at Oklahoma immediately intensifies the pressure to get back to the playoffs next year.