By J.T. CHADWELL
We’re about two weeks away from the start of the 2026 World Cup, which emanates from our home here in North America. This has long been one of my top five favorite sporting events. This year the World Cup expands from 32 to 48 teams, and I think that really helps the favorites of this competition even more because the groups are weaker than ever for the top teams. In my lifetime, there really hasn’t ever been a longshot winner of the World Cup, and I see nothing really different about that this season. In this edition of the Cheat Sheet, we will pick winners of each group along with some higher-odds plays on teams to advance to the knockout stage since the favorites are so heavy.
Let’s get into the matchups:
GROUP A
The opening group sees co-host Mexico opening as the (-110) favorite. This isn’t the best team Mexico has ever had, but still a pretty solid overall group, and El Tri enters the contest as the 15th ranked team in the world rankings. This group includes two traditionally pesky teams in Czechia (+280) and South Korea (+300). Czechia arrives through playoff qualification wins over Ireland and Denmark. South Korea has had some volatility since dismissing Jurgen Klinnsmann as head coach and comes to North America on the heels of two very unimpressive friendly matches against Austria and Ivory Coast, scoring in neither. South Africa (+1200) also draws into this group, but should not be a factor at all. With home-field advantage, and enough attacking firepower for this group, Mexico should be well positioned to advance.
THE PICK: Mexico (-110)
GROUP B
This might be the trickiest group of them all. Switzerland (-125) is the favorite, but it is impossible to figure out what to expect. The Swiss looked mighty in the qualifying stage, not losing a single match. However, they didn’t win a single match in the most recent UEFA Nations League. The two biggest challenges in this group will come from co-host Canada (+200) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+425). The Canadians will be without star winger/left back Alphonso Davies for at least their opening match. Bosnia, meanwhile, gets here surprisingly off of two consecutive wins over perennial World Cup contenders Wales and Italy. Bosnia has experience and talent at the front of their attack with Edin Dzeko and Ermedin Demirovic. The fourth nation in this group is Qatar (+2800), which does not look to factor into this equation.
THE PICK: DUAL FORECAST Switzerland/Bosnia (+300). (A dual forecast wager means both teams must finish first or second in their group).
GROUP C
Brazil (-370) heads north with one of its more underwhelming rosters of the 21st century. Neymar is aging quickly, and battling a calf injury that could sideline him for at least the opening match, if not longer. The Brazilians also lack the target striker quality, but they have lots of creators that could offset that. They are understandably a heavy favorite to take this group over Morocco (+370), which had a fantastic run to the semifinals in the last World Cup, looks positioned to be solid again here, and have jumped all the way up to eighth in the FIFA World Rankings. Morroco’s biggest qualifying challenge will come from Scotland (+1000), which is in the field for the first time in 28 years. While the Scots have some quality players, they just don’t seem to have the depth needed to compete with Morocco and Brazil. Haiti (+10000) can expect a quick trip to North America.
THE PICK: EXACT DUAL FORECAST Brazil 1st Morocco 2nd (+100) (Both teams must finish in that exact order in the group)
GROUP D
There are no lines available for this group, more than likely since the USA is involved. However, Team USA is coming into this competition with very low expectations surrounding has been playing far from its best as of late. The other teams in this group – Australia, Paraguay, and Turkey – all could draw or even beat the Americans, who still are favored to win this group. Team USA will have to be at its best to advance to the round of 32. The team to watch in this group is Turkey, which has some nice upstart players added to the roster this time around and a legit star in Arda Guler, an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid, leading the way.
GROUP E
Germany (-310) might have been given the best opening draw of any team in the group stage. The Germans are not lacking in attacking options, but their success in this tournament will depend on how well they defend. They should have no problems winning this group over Ecuador (+350), which will have a slight advantage playing in the Americas. Ecuador comes in on the back of four consecutive scoreless draws and a 1-0 win in qualifying. Still, its attacking is very limited, so this should be a good matchup for Germany. Ivory Coast (+600) comes to America having played two very impressive friendly matches with wins over Scotland and South Korea, whom they trounced 4-0. Its lineup is filled with European footballers and Ivory Coast has high hopes of advancing to the knockout round for the first time. At worst, Ivory Coast should grab three points against Curacao (+13000) which, much like Haiti, will have a quick trip back to the Caribbean.
THE PICK: GROUP EXACT FORECAST Germany/Ecuador/Ivory Coast/Curacao (+180).
GROUP F
Every four years there is a Group of Death, and while the recent expansion has really tamed that term, Group F is probably the trickiest to maneuver for the favored team, The Netherlands (-130). The Orange come in ranked seventh in the world in the latest FIFA Rankings. The Dutch did not lose a single match in their qualifying group, but had no real competition to deal with. Attacking is the name of the game for the Dutch and, like Germany, how they defend will determine their success. The problem in this group: Japan (+260) and Sweden (+450) can also attack. Sweden, however, did not win a single match in qualifying and only made the field thanks to playoff wins over lesser competition. I think there will be goals to be scored in this group, and whoever defends above its baseline could be the team advancing. Cue the music for Tunisia (+1100), which didn’t concede in either friendly matchup in the warm up to the World Cup, beating Haiti 1-0 and drawing Canada 0-0.
THE PICK: DUAL FORECAST Netherlands/Japan (+150) (Both teams must finish first or second in their group).
GROUP G
The Golden Age of Belgium (-230) came and went with no trophies, but whatever Belgians are calling the next generation of stars isn’t far behind. Belgium still comes in ranked ninth in the world and had no issues through a relatively easy qualifying group. Belgium came to North America early for tune-ups and crushed the USA 5-2 in a friendly. Its group stage draw sees maybe even more fortune. Egypt (+400) is the next closest challenger and lacks the horses to run with Belgium. Iran (+450) has some nice attackers that play competitive European club football, but Belgium should still be too strong. New Zealand (+2500) will be coming in off a win against a very poor Chile side, but prior to that went eight straight friendlies without a win. Iran and Egypt can absolutely give Belgium fits, and one of those matches could end in a draw. But if Belgium puts their best foot forward, this team can roll through the group.
THE PICK: Belgium to win ALL group games (+220)
GROUP H
Group H favorite Spain (-450) is also the pre-tournament favorite to hoist the trophy when it’s all said and done. Spain is incredibly deep at all levels on the pitch and have a world class keeper as well in Unai Simon. Spain is the deserved favorite, but a lingering hamstring injury to superstar Lamine Yamal could hurt. If Yamal is 100% this tournament, Spain is going to be very difficult to defeat. Spain has an outstanding midfield that should dictate the movement of most of its games. The Spanish can hold possession and defend at a top-flight level as well. As far as this group is concerned, no one is touching them. Not Uruguay (+370), not Saudi Arabia (+1800), and most certainly not Cape Verde (+4000).
THE PICK: GROUP EXACT FORECAST Spain/Urugay/Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia (+250)
GROUP I
Arguably the second-best side of the competition, France (-230) looks healthy and ready to make another championship run like it did in the 2018 World Cup. This team doesn’t really have any weaknesses and is adept both defending and attacking. The Blues have some youth in Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola, paired with strong veterans Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe, and feature maybe the most improved player in the world in Michael Olise attacking from the wing. They draw an upstart Norway (+275) that can absolutely make some noise in this tournament. Two sides in this group that definitely are not preferred are Senegal (+750) and Iraq (+5000).
THE PICK: DUAL FORECAST France/Norway (-165) (Both teams must finish first or second in their group).
GROUP J
The defending champ Argentina (-340) should be formidable once again and will look to make it two trophies in a row with its tough defending and soccer legend Lionel Messi running the attack. The Argentines shouldn’t have any worry advancing from this group, but did draw two teams looking to make a little noise in this tournament. Austria (+450) has had two good tune-ups coming in and features some nice attacking football. Algeria (+700) has been one of Africa’s tougher sides for the better part of this century and this edition should be no different, and quite stingy defensively. Jordan (+4000) is making its first ever appearance, and the odds resemble that. The play here focuses on Austria, which has scored in 19 of its last 22 matches, including five against Norway, three against The Netherlands, and five in a recent March friendly with Ghana.
THE PICK: Austria to score in each group game (+120)
GROUP K
A team I am really high on coming into the World Cup this year is Portugal (-230). This might be the only team other than France that has a midfield that can compete with Spain. It all starts with Vitinha calling the shots from the central to defensive midfielder role. From there Portugal has so many combinations of attacking players able to play in different formations, it really makes it strong from a tactical standpoint. Last year the stars aligned for Messi. Could this be the year the stars align for the other legend of the game, Cristiano Ronaldo, playing in what’s more than likely his final World Cup? Portugal gets a quick early test against Colombia (+240), which also features some nice players and a stern defense. The other two teams in this group are up against it but I like Uzbekistan (+3500) to outperform the Democratic Republic of the Congo (+1100).
THE PICK: GROUP EXACT FORECAST Portugal/Colombia/Uzbekistan/DRC (+330)
GROUP L
The final Group is led by England (-320) which is led by Thomas Tuechel. If there’s one thing we know about Tuechel, it’s that he is going to defend like his hair is on fire and try and win every game 1-0. England’s roster is reflective of that, and this side is deservedly the third favorite to win the tournament. However, the English drew a fairly tough group that includes World Cup darlings Croatia (+350) and Ghana (+1000), both of which have put together memorable runs over the last five World Cups. If Croatia can draw with England in the opener, I like Croatia’s chances to have a better goal differential in its other two matchups given England’s tendency to keep games low scoring. Panama (+3000) is no laughing matter either, and will not let any of these teams off the hook easily.
THE PICK: EXACT DUAL FORECAST Croatia 1ST/ England 2ND (+450).
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