By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Scottie Scheffler just never gave us a chance last week, as he put together his worst approach stats for a tournament since February of 2021. Outside of Scottie, it was a very nice week for both Min Woo Lee and Harris English, even though English faded to barely cash his top 30. In the end, it was Akshay Bhatia chasing down Daniel Berger, in what was one of the more impressive back nines we have seen in a while. Bhatia made four birdies and an eagle to force Berger, who led the tournament from the start, to a sudden death playoff. It is the third straight Signature event that has seen a player outside of 50-1 odds win, a trend that has not been popular in the Signature events since their inception. We have another massive event on deck, as players head north to Ponte Vedra Beach for one of the PGA Tour’s flagship events.
The Players Championship
TPC Sawgrass presents a unique layout of three longer par 3s and one of the most famous golf holes in the world, the island 17th hole. The par 5s here can be very awkward for players who aren’t used to playing here, as the second in come from some uncomfortable angles, some of which have water in play. When we take a look at past winners, it’s quite obvious we will be looking for in form players as opposed to players who would be more of a course fit. TPC Sawgrass demands tee to green play with its tight fairways and tough pin locations. Should the rough be grown up this week, a high priority will be put on players who can drive the ball accurately. The highest comp course score for TPC Sawgrass is Sedgefield Country Club with a comp score of 89.3. This reiterates the fact that course history doesn’t mean a whole lot here. The formula for hosting a trophy is elite accuracy off the tee, great approach play, and above average touch around the greens.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
2025, Rory McIlroy (10/1) – In the four events prior, had four straight top 20 finishes, including one top five and a win.
2024, Scottie Scheffler (5/1) – Posted five straight top-20 finishes in his five prior events, with four top-10s, three top-5s, and a win.
2023, Scottie Scheffler (10/1) – Finished in the top 15 in each of his six events prior, including two top-5s and a victory.
2022, Cameron Smith (30/1) – In the seven prior events, he finished in the top 15 five times, the top five twice, and scored a win.
2021 Justin Thomas (20/1) – Tallied six top-15 finishes in his prior eight events, wth three top-5 finishes.
THE BETTING CARD
It is pretty clear from past winners of this event that you must be playing well recently to get the job done here. There actually hasn’t been a winner of this tournament outside the top 10 in yearly scoring average in over seven years. I think this tournament could be a tad different as McIlroy is dealing with a potential back injury and Scheffler is in his worst run of form since 2021. We will look to lean heavily on players in great form, and maybe a couple who could get there this week.
- Collin Morikawa (27/1), .2 units to win 5.4 units – This time last year, I would’ve never dreamed I would have Morikawa on a betting card, but in golf things change quickly. Morikawa has added ball speed to his driver without losing accuracy, and is finally putting a lot better. Put the two together with his elite skill with his irons and Collin is off to a hot start, and the sky is the limit the rest of the season. If he keeps putting like he is, Collin could win three or four times this season.
- Ludvig Aberg (40/1), .15 units to win 6 units – If you lined up every golfer on the range and told the average person to pick the best one, Aberg would be the top choice. He has the game to be the next No. 1 player in the world. His form is really coming in, as he has gained in all four categories in three straight tournaments. If ball striking continues, all Ludvig will have to do is make a few putts and he will hoist this trophy.
- Min Woo Lee (40/1), .1 units to win 4 units – Course history doesn’t matter much here, but it always helps, and Lee almost (and probably should’ve) won this tournament back in 2023. He led after the third round but shot a final round 76. Lee has now finished in the top 12 in three straight signature events, and would rank first on the PGA Tour in total driving and short game combined. A halfway decent week with the irons and wedges and Lee will be right there with a chance to win again.
- Chris Gotterup (42/1), .125 units to win 5.37 units – The course fit isn’t really there for Gotterup, but it wasn’t at the Sony either and he won that tournament. Gotterup had a bad round in the final round at Bay Hill, but he is still a top 10 player in this field who has won twice already this season. That’s enough reason to jump on a number this high.
- Jordan Spieth (59/1), .1 units to win 5.9 units – His game is finally coming around. He probably won’t win this week, and he won’t be a popular pick because he never plays well here. But last week he had eight straight one-putts, and he’s had six top-25 finishes since June. One week of accurate tee balls, and it could happen for Jordan.
- Adam Scott (60/1), .1 units to win 6 units – A tie for 11th gave Adam Scott four worldwide top 15s since November, to go along with a fourth-place finish at the Genesis. Scott is an elite tee to green player and just needs one hot round with the putter to vault into contention here.
HISTORY TELLS US THESE PLAYERS PROBABLY ARENT WINNING, BUT WHAT’S A GOLF TOURNAMENT WITHOUT LONGSHOTS?!
- Sahith Theegala (90/1), .075 units to win 6.82 units – He has five top-25 finishes this season already and is coming off a sixth-place tie at Bay Hill. Can he hit his driver straight enough this week?
- Wyndham Clark (115/1), .05 units to win 5.8 units – He is showing flashes and for his talent level, that is enough to justify a 115/1 longshot bet. He would have back-to-back top 20s if not for anemic putting. He is a good putter, so hopefully those are outliers. The last time he played a full tournament at Sawgrass, he finished second.
- Max Homa (160/1), .075 units to win 12.07 units – Like Clark, Homa is showing flashes and that is plenty of enough for a 160/1 number. Last time out he gained strokes in all four categories en route to a tie for 13th in Palm Beach. Three years ago, he tied for sixth here.
- Garrick Higgo (250/1), .05 units to win 12.55 units – One of my favorite golfers on tour and I haven’t got to write about him yet. He’s got a very big game that is wildly inconsistent. He isn’t in form, but he can catch lightning in a bottle, and normally if he can make the weekend he can get into contention.
- Gary Woodland (440/1) .05 units to win 22.05 units – Gary has been quite good off the tee and has won big tournaments before. The putter has also been hot, he just has to figure the irons out.