By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
It was a really fun sweat this weekend at the Cognizant Classic as Austin Smotherman played really solid all week and just falls 2 shots short. Thankfully Smotherman gave us some great opportunities to hedge, one of which was eventual winner Nico Echavarria. Nico was absolutely rock solid all week and was the much deserved winner. Six of the nine picks this week (Will Zalatoris withdrew) made the cut this week, so we had lots of options heading into the weekend, but none were really able to gain much steam on the lead pack. Although we came out ahead with the hedge on Echavarria, we will still track just the tips last week, bringing our total to +6.26 for the season after a minus-1 unit week last week. The signature events are back and we head west to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of my favorite tournaments of the year. It is also, many more times than not, the most difficult setup players will see all year outside of the major tournaments. The event is contested at Bay Hill Lodge in Orlando, FL, and comes in as the third most predictive course based on course history. Only Riviera and Augusta National rank higher. The closest comparable courses that players see each year on the PGA Tour are Black Desert in Utah and TPC Scottsdale, which just contested a tournament last month. The most common denominator among the last 10 winners here has been the ability to move it long off the tee, more accurate than normal for that week. Russell Henley broke that streak last season from a distance standpoint, but was incredibly accurate with his driver. I think the chance that a second short hitter winning in a row at this course would be unlikely. The other noticeable trend here has been the odds of the winner, which again Henley disrupted last year. Outside of Henley, we have seen mostly favorites (Scheffler, McIlroy, Day, DeChambeau) win here with a few massive longshots sprinkled in (Kitayama, Every, Leishman).
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025, Russell Henley (45/1) – Made six straight cuts with three top-10 finishes in the six events prior.
- 2024, Scottie Scheffler (6/1) – Made the cut in the prior five events, with three top-10 finishes.
- 2023, Kurt Kitayama (250/1) – Made of three of five cuts in his five prior events.
- 2022, Scottie Scheffler (18/1) – In the five prior events he played, he made the cut at all five with two top-10 finishes and a win.
- 2021, Bryson DeChambeau (12/1) – In his four prior events, he made three cuts with top-20 finish and two top-10s.
COURSE SETUP AND STATS
The name of the game at Bay Hill is driving the golf ball. The two closest comp courses we mentioned earlier (TPC Scottsdale and Black Desert) saw their respective champions gain a combined 11.92 shots off the tee in those events. That is a staggering number, as the leader in strokes gained off the tee over the last six months averages around 3.75 per tournament. This means the first stat we will be looking at is total driving. This takes into account distance plus accuracy. Secondly, like Augusta and Riviera (courses high in course history predictability like Bay Hill), we need players who have some creativity around the greens and a great short game. For this we will be looking at a combined strokes gained approach on and around the greens. And finally, the other way to win here is to just not miss many greens. Greens in regulation (GIR) percentage from outside 175 yards will be pivotal this week, so we will be looking at high GIR players with longer bladed clubs in their hands. As is always the case in signature events, the real question comes down to what Scottie Scheffler will do this week. Scottie has won here two times and has set the bar so high that three straight tournaments without a win seems like failure to most. What slips under the radar is the improvement Scottie has made to his game on and around the greens. In four events this season, he is gaining on average six shots to the field in putting and chipping, something much needed on this course. Keeping in mind he won here twice without that level of short game, he has had a week off to freshen his mind and I think he will come back ready to take down his first signature event of the season.
THE BETTING CARD
Thanks to DraftKings switching up its golf betting format, round robins are no longer possible to play. Couple that with most books’ placement pricing being very uninspiring, we will go for a little bit different of a play than normal this week. This week’s play is going to be two four-leg parlays, one played for .85 units and the other played for .15 units. DraftKings is offering a 20% placement parlay boost you can use on this as well.
4 LEG PARLAY (+600, or boost to +720) .85 units to win 5.1 units
- Scottie Scheffler, Top 5 – I like the week of freshening for Scottie heading into his second best event. He won this event in 2022 and 2024 and in the years he didn’t he was tied for fourth and tied for 11th. Scottie has really struggled in the opening rounds in his last three events, but has stormed back to finish in the top 12 in all of them. A decent opening round and he will be a heavy favorite entering Friday.
- Rory McIlroy, Top 20 – Rory only missed by a shot in the last signature event at Riviera, and earlier this week beat a stacked field in the Seminole Club Pro Member event. McIlroy has a great track record here including a win. The full game looks to be in good shape and his course knowledge will be a big edge over some of the newbies.
- Harris English, Top 30 – In tournaments where the winning score is single digit under par, we need bogey avoiders and there might not be any better than English, who has three top-30 finishes here in the last five years and hasn’t finished outside the top 30 yet this season.
- Min Woo Lee, Top 30 – Min Woo should grade out fantastic on this course. He is No. 1 on the PGA Tour this season in total driving and he possesses a mean short game to go with it. If he can keep his approach shots out of hazards this week, a top 20 finish is definitely in play as well as a win.
4 LEG PARLAY .15 units to win 10.5 units
- Scottie Scheffler WIN
- Min Woo Lee TOP 10
- Rory McIlroy TOP 10
- Harris English TOP 20