By J.T. CHADWELL
What a week it could have been. Going into the final round we had live outrights to Jacob Bridgeman, Michael Kim, and Wyndham Clark along with placements alive to Eric Cole, and Tom Hoge. But as it is with sports betting, some days just aren’t your day. The five aforementioned players shot the five highest scores of any players in the top 27 and the only thing we walked away with was the Hoge placement. Nonetheless, it’s still a (very slightly) positive week as we gain 0.3 units. Two weeks in and the tip sheet is (-0.7) units.
The third tournament of the season sees the PGA visit one of the most storied venues on the tour, Torrey Pines, which has long been the host of the Farmers Insurance Open. If there is one thing that Torrey Pines has taught us in the many years this event has been played, if your ball striking isn’t at 100 percent, the chances of winning decrease by about 98.5%. There is nowhere to hide on the North or the South course if you are not striking the golf ball at an elite level, something our Past Winners and Form Trends section will highlight.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025, Harris English (80/1) – Three top 15 finishes in the fall, with a Top 40 finish prior to winning at Torrey Pines last year.
- 2024, Matthieu Pavon (125/1) – A trophy and three top 10s on the DP World Tour in the fall, a Top 7 finish at the Sony two weeks prior, and a 39th-place finish the week prior to winning the Farmers Insurance Open.
- 2023 Max Homa (20/1) – A trophy, four consecutive top 20’ and a top-three finish in the event prior to winning.
- 2021 Luke List (75/1) – Two top 20s in the fall, then three straight top 25s, two of which were in the top 15 in the 3 weeks leading up to his victory.
- 2021 Patrick Reed (25/1) – Four top-20 finishes in the fall.
COURSE HISTORY AND SETUP
As we head south to La Jolla, we get almost a complete 180 from the past week at The American Express. Torrey Pines is a long course that really puts an emphasis on tee to green stats. In February it is difficult to grow the rough as lush and thick as they do for the majors that are contested in the summers so not as much of an emphasis this week on driving accuracy, but short hitters will have a very hard time getting the job done with the length of a lot of these par 4s and 5s. Looking at the past champions, prior form to this tournament appears to be a massive plus. The last five winners of this event have shown excellent form over the prior 3-4 months, so we will be looking for guys who have shown some good finishes as of late. Approach numbers are also absolutely critical if you want to win at Torrey Pines. The last three winners on average have gained a little over eight strokes to the field on approach. Irons MUST be dialed in this week, which means the first click and top pick is fairly obvious…
THE BETTING CARD **Due to DraftKings pricing, this week’s outright card will be without the Schauffele, Kim, Cantlay, Young, Aberg market
- TOP PICK** Ryan Gerard (44/1), .15 units to win 6.75 units – Gerard gained just over six shots to the field at the Sony Open and in the final round last week we saw his putter wake up. He has finished second three times in a row now. This guy is getting his first trophy way sooner than later.
- Hideki Matsuyama (25/1) .2 units to win 5.2 units – Matsuyama has only finished outside the top 20 twice in his last 12 events. His last five trips to Torrey, he hasn’t finished outside the top 30 with three top 15s. He gained 4.8 shots on the field on approach at the Sony.
- Jason Day (26/1) .175 units to win 4.72 units – Day was the best player on the course for half of the week last week. He had back to back top 10s at Torrey Pines back in 2022 and 2023. He has gained 1.23 shots total per round here in 42 rounds.
- Justin Rose (41/1) .125 units to win 5.25 units – Rose has three worldwide top 10s, including a win, in his last nine starts with a win. In half of those starts he gained more than four shots to the field on approach. He shot 63 in the second round last week and boasts back to back top 20s at this event in 2022 and 2023.
- Nicolai Hojgaard (51/1) .08 units to win 4.1 units – Travel might be a concern here, but ball striking definitely isn’t. He finished second here in his only trip to Torrey Pines back in 2024. Hoigaard has four top 15s in his last five worldwide starts, but will be coming over from Dubai after finishing fourth there last week in a stacked field.
- Brooks Koepka (67/1) .1 units to win 6.8 units – Do I think he will win his first start back to the PGA Tour in over four years? No. But if there is one thing we have learned about Koepka, when he is motivated, he can turn his game on with the flip of a switch. And at 67/1 I am willing to take a chance that he is a little more motivated to get the job done this week.
- Kristoffer Reitan (76/1) .06 units to win 4.6 units – Throw out his performance at the Sony Open. He was added to the tournament at the last second. This is a dramatic price adjustment for a guy who is easily one of the top 20 or 25 players in this field right now. His irons are streaky, but again at this price I am willing to take a chance for a guy who has posted nine top 5s worldwide since April of last year and has two wins.
- Johnny Keefer (110/1) .05 units to win 5.5 units – Another dramatic price adjustment for a guy who lit up the Korn Ferry Tour last season and seems to have quite a bright future ahead of him. Finished tied for seventh at the RSM in November, and a respectable tied for 27th last week.
- Tom Hoge (140/1) .035 units to win 4.9 units – Riding the hot hand here. Hoge cashed us last week with a fantastic week of ball striking. The putter is showing life and last year in five of the seven events he gained strokes putting he finished in the top 20 with three of those being top-7 finishes.
- Davis Riley (210/1) .025 units to win 5.27 units – Riding another hot hand for a big price. Riley has played five really good rounds the last two weeks. Many of his rounds have been good enough to win a tournament. Unfortunately, he has played three really poor rounds. Clean up the mistakes and maybe he can be in contention on Sunday.