By JOHN MOOREHOUSE
The end of the college basketball season — the national championship game currently is scheduled for April 6 in Indianapolis, if you didn’t already know — still is a long way off.
However, with the holidays approaching, that means that conference play kicks into high gear once the calendar turns to January. The grind of league play can change things in a hurry.
While it’s still admittedly early, five teams have separated themselves from the rest of the field as possible national championship winners. What do all five of these teams have in common? They’re efficient at both ends of the floor. Each of the five currently ranks in the top 12 in KenPom’s rankings for both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. I’m somewhat of an advanced metrics nerd when it comes to basketball, so I’ve included some of the key stats with each team.
Let’s take a look at each in this week’s installment of The Friday 5.
#1: Michigan (9-0, NET: 1st, AP Poll: 2nd)
Dusty May is crushing it in Ann Arbor. It took him just one year to reload the roster and produce one of the nation’s top teams — if not the best. The Wolverines are one of eight unbeaten teams left in Division I. They lead the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (85.6) according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. They rank second in effective field goal percentage defense (40.6) and sixth in effective field goal percentage (60.2). A big part of those high metrics is Michigan’s success inside the arc. The Wolverines lead the country in 2-point shooting percentage (65.1) and 2-point percentage allowed (37.9). And they’ve done it while playing the ninth-toughest schedule in the nation. At the first of the month, a report by CJ Moore for The Athletic found that Michigan’s overall adjusted efficiency, if it holds up, would be the highest in the past 15 years. Since then, Michigan’s metrics have gotten even better, with the adjusted efficiency margin climbing to 37.18. These Wolverines look like they’ll be in it to win it for the duration.
#2: Arizona (8-0, NET: 6th, AP POll: 2st)
The Wildcats started the season by beating the defending national champ Florida and they haven’t looked back. Arizona went on to beat UCLA and UCONN in close games, and just thumped an Auburn team that started the season ranked but is looking increasingly befuddled under new coach Steven Pearl. The ‘Cats assumed the top spot in The Associated Press poll after Purdue got clobbered by Iowa State (more on that in a bit …) Freshman Koa Peat might end up giving Duke rookie Cameron Boozer a run for his money in the battle for national player of the year honors. Vol fans will recognize another key frontcourt player: Tobe Awaka, now in his second season in Tuscon. The Wildcats rank ninth nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but near the bottom of the country in 3-point rate; so far, 3s represent only 26.2% of their total field goal attempts. Another curious fact: No West Coast team has won it all since the Wildcats in 1997.
#3: Iowa State (10-0, NET: 4th, AP Poll: 4th)
The Cyclones have a strong case as the top team currently in the nation. Iowa State reecntly drilled Purdue by 23 points on the Boilers’ home court. ISU ranks second nationwide in defensive efficiency (90.2) behind Michigan and sixth in offensive efficiency (124.6). The Cyclones are second in effective field goal percentage (62.8) and third nationally shooting the 3, with a 43.8% make rate. They also force turnovers on 26.5% of opponents’ possessions, a rate that ranks second in D-I behind McNeese of the Southland Conference. Iowa State has been to one Final Four all time — more than 80 years ago — but this could be the year that drought changes.
#4: Duke (10-0, NET: 2nd, AP Poll: 3rd)
The Blue Devils entered the last NCAA Tournament as the top overall seed and figure to be in the mix for a No. 1 line yet again. Whereas so many teams have used NIL and the portal to assemble older, experienced players, Duke has taken the opposite approach. The current Blue Devil rotation includes seven underclassmen: four freshmen and three sophomores. It sure helps when one of those freshmen is Boozer, who is the front runner to be the national player of the year and looks to be a lock as a high pick in June’s NBA Draft. Duke, like these other teams, is highly efficient. The Devils currently lead the country in effective field goal percentage allowed (40.0%), rank third in defensive efficiency (90.9), and 10th in offensive efficiency (123.4). Their 39.9% shooting allowed on 2s ranks second nationally behind Michigan.
#5: Gonzaga (9-1, NET: 3rd, AP Poll: 8th)
Remember what I just said about teams using the portal to get older? Gonzaga is a prime example. The Zags average 2.72 years of Division I experience across their entire roster. Gonzaga has eight players who were at least 21 when the season began and six guys in the current rotation who are 22 or older. It’s a deep and versatile group, with nine players who currently average 15 or more minutes per game. One of those old guys, Graham Ike, is one of the most efficient frontcourt scorers you’ll find, but when he struggles, Gonzaga struggles. Ike had a horrendous shooting night in the Players Era tournament against Michigan and the Wolverines won by 40. The Zags currently rank fourth nationally in defensive efficiency (91.3) and seventh in offensive efficiency (124.2). Mark Few has led Gonzaga to the national title game twice to fall short. Maybe this is the year that that changes.