By SCOTT FELTS
We are starting down the stretch run towards fantasy playoffs and every move you make will determine if you win or lose your league. So let’s get started with this week’s Sit Start or Snipe. There are two teams on bye this week, the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints.
There are considerable injuries this week including QB Jaxson Dart, Giants (concussion), QB Geno Smith, Raiders (quad), QB C.J. Stroud, Texans (concussion), RB J.K. Dobbins, Broncos (foot), RB Omarion Hampton, Chargers (ankle), RB Bucky Irving, Bucs (foot), WR Davante Adams, Rams (oblique), WR Keyshawn Boutte, Patriots (hamstring), WR Garrett Wilson, Jets (knee-OUT), WR Brian Thomas, Jr., Jaguars (ankle), WR Romeo Doubs, Packers (chest), TE Dalton Kincaid, Bills (hamstring), and TE Aaron Gadsden II, Chargers (knee).
SIT
QB: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos. This week‘s opponent Kansas City is coming off of a bye and is one of just six NFL teams to allow fewer than 10 passing touchdowns to opposing QBs this season. Nix can rush the ball and the Chiefs have allowed the league’s most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks at five, but if you saw the way Bo struggled against a terrible Raiders defense in Week 10, this matchup should scare you.
RB: Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks. This week‘s opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, have allowed only one rushing touchdown to RBs this season, which is best in the NFL. Walker has not scored a touchdown since Week 3 against the Saints. Walker is getting the bulk of his team’s carries, but with most leagues being PPR and touchdown dependent, he is best left on your bench.
WR: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs. After a huge rookie season, Worthy has been lost in the Chiefs offense this year. He has failed to record 12 fantasy points in five straight games and there are definitely more “worthy” options. In reality, though, the matchup between Kansas City and Denver doesn’t warrant starting any wide receivers for either team, if you have other choices. The Chiefs have only allowed 955 receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
TE: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I almost put Cade in the snipe category this week. He has scored double digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. With teammates Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injured, Otton has stepped into the role of number two target but is still only seeing 23% of his team’s targets over the last four games. The matchup is awful as Buffalo has allowed the fewest receptions (23) and receiving yards (242) to TEs this season. Roster him if you can, but start someone else this week.
START
QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins. This week‘s matchup against the Washington Commanders is a juicy one. Washington has allowed at least 250 passing yards and three passing touchdowns in each of its last four games. That probably has happened because they lost starting cornerbacks Marshawn Lattimore and Trey Amos in back-to-back weeks. Tua has accounted for multiple touchdowns in six of his last nine starts. Ride him if your starter’s matchup is a bad one.
RB: Woody Marks, Houston Texans. Marks hasn’t always been the go-to guy in Houston during his rookie season. However, he has averaged 73 yards per game over his last two and should have a big game against a Titans defense that has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, which is tied for the most in the NFL, and the second most fantasy points per game to running backs in the league. If you are still worried about a split backfield, don’t b. Marks received 60 snaps to Nick Chubb’s 10 this past week.
WR: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions. Williams may not have started out strong this season, averaging less than eight PPR points per game over the first five contests, however he’s averaging almost 15 points per game in his last four, one of which he scored zero. The Lions finally remembered he is one of the best big-play threats in the NFL. In Week 10, Williams had six catches for a season-high 119 yards. This week’s matchup against the Eagles should be a good one considering the Philadelphia secondary isn’t what it once was and Lions head coach Dan Campbell has taken over offensive play calling.
TE: Any Pittsburgh Steelers’ TE. The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati, QB Aaron Rodgers threw for four touchdowns against the Bengals, with three of those four being to three different tight ends. The Bengals have allowed 12 receiving touchdowns to tight ends with no other team allowing more than seven. I won’t leave you hanging though and not choose one here, my suggestion is Pat Freiermuth who has scored 50 fantasy points over the last four weeks to 22 by Jonnu Smith.
SNIPE
QB: Marcus Mariota, Washington, Commanders. (Owned in less than 30% of leagues.) With Jayden Daniels still out, Mariota will be the Commanders’ starting QB, most of the rest of the season. Marietta has scored 17 or more fantasy points in the four games he has started and plays against a usually suspect Miami defense this week. The Dolphins allow the eighth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Mariota also still has games against Dallas, the Giants, and two possibly against Philly.
RB: Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans. (Owned in around 20% of leagues) Tony Pollard has been leading the team in carries, but Spears has been out-producing the veteran in every other stat category lately. In Week 8, Spears rushed nine times for 59 yards and a touchdown and had three catches for 23 yards. He has also scored at least nine fantasy points in three of the last four. With the Titans’ season in disarray ,the team may decide to use the 24-year-old Spears more than the aging veteran Pollard.
WR: Tyler Lockett, Las Vegas Raiders. (Owned in less than 2% of leagues.) This is a true perfect timing situation as Lockett has only been with the Raiders for a couple of weeks, but the Jacoby Myers trade has allowed him to be more of a target for former teammate Geno Smith. Lockett was targeted six times, the most on the team and turned it into five catches for 44 yards against a tough Broncos defense last week. Now he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed a league-high 16 touchdowns to receivers this season.
TE: Theo Johnson, New York Giants. (Owned in about 35% of leagues) In the last seven weeks, Johnson has scored double digit fantasy points five times. The loss of Malik Nabers has opened the door for Johnson to contribute offensively for the Giants. Since Nabers has gone out, Johnson has averaged over 12 PPR points per game. Those are numbers worthy of a starting TE. If Johnson isn’t on a roster, he needs to be on yours.
This week’s freebies of the week are:
Rams quarterback and MVP candidate Matthew Stafford has 13 passing touchdowns in his last three games. That is more touchdowns than Geno Smith, Bryce Young, and Trevor Lawrence have combined to throw thus far this season.
According to Next Gen Stats, eight NFL players have hit 20 mph on three or more rushes this year. Six of those have at least 125 rush attempts on the season. The other two are Keaton Mitchell with 15 rush attempts and Caleb Williams with 48.
Last week, Alvin Kamara scored 14.5 PPR points. In weeks seven and nine combined, he only scored 13.1.