By JT CHADWELL
RECAP
We went 2-2 last week, which makes us 4-5 in the past two weeks combined. Maryland’s run defense was absolutely gashed by a Rutgers team that came into the contest ranked outside the top 85 in yards per game. TCU gained 432 yards of offense, but was only able to score 17 thanks to turning the ball over three times on Iowa State’s side of the field, turning the ball over on downs in Iowa State territory, and missing a 25-yard field goal.
The No Free Lunch Award
This week’s award goes to the Virginia Cavaliers. Stakes were high for Virginia coming into this game as they found themselves at the top of the Atlantic Coast Conference seeking a bid to the conference championship game, and potentially the College Football Playoff. The public saw fit, as 76% of the public support landed on UVA. And why not? Wake Forest was coming off a 42-7 beatdown at the hands of Florida State. As it typically goes when favored teams don’t get the job done, Virginia lost the turnover battle to the Demon Deacons by a margin of 3-0. Despite outgaining Wake Forest by 124 yards, and holding the Deacons to only 64 passing yards, the three turnovers proved too costly to overcome and the 6.5-point favorite Cavaliers lost outright, once again reminding us to gamble responsibly and there is no such thing as free lunch.
This week’s picks
With the featured NFL props all falling short, this weekend we will stick with the college slate.
Arizona @ Cincinnati (-5.5) (12 p.m., FS1)
One of my favorite angles to attack is playing against a West Coast team, traveling east, for a 12:00 kickoff. Last week it was Colorado, this week it is Arizona. This is Arizona’s third road game in four weeks, and by far the most miles that the Wildcats have traveled this season. With Cincinnati coming off a bye week, and Arizona coming off a hard=fought win at home against Kansas last week, we have even more reason to like the Bearcats in this spot. Cincinnati has held serve pretty well at home in conference this year at 3-0 with wins over Iowa State, Baylor, and UCF.
Air Force @ UCONN OVER 62.5 (12 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
UCONN makes a second straight appearance in this article for good reason. The gaps that Duke had to run through last week vs UCONN were very wide and Duke had no problems rushing the ball. Those gaps are even harder to close against Air Force’s option attack. Air Force is second in the nation in rush yards per game, while UCONN is 103rd in rush yards allowed. On the flip side, UCONN is 13th in the nation in pass yards per game while Air Force is 134th in pass yards allowed. Translation, it doesn’t look promising that either defense can stop either offense.
South Carolina (+19.5) @ Texas A&M (12 p.m., ESPN_
Let’s start by saying, I think Texas A&M is unquestionably one of the top teams in college football, if not the best. But, this is way too many points to give up here. LaNorris Sellers is nowhere near the QB he was last season, but he is still very capable. South Carolina gets an extra week of preparation, while Texas A&M has its sights set on much bigger fish at the end of the season. South Carolina is 3-6 but hasn’t lost a game yet by more than 19 points.
North Carolina (+6.5) @ Wake Forest (4:30 p.m., CW)
After blowout losses to UCF and Clemson, North Carolina fell off the radar early in the season for most. However, the last four games have been promising for the Heels, only giving up an average of only 15 points per game, with two of those contests on the road. Over the last three games, North Carolina is giving up 1.4 yards less per play than they have on the season, while gaining 0.5 yards more per play. Now they travel to Wake Forest to take on a Demon Deacons team that could be due for a letdown coming off a win at Virginia. All of Wake Forest’s ACC wins this year have been by seven points or less.
Colorado State @ New Mexico (-13.5) (3 p.m.)
So many times in college football, a head coaching change is made and an interim head coach brings new energy and fresh ideas to energize a team. That has not been the case for Colorado State. In two games since head coach Jay Norvell was let go, Colorado State has been outscored 70-10. Now the Rams get a trip to New Mexico, which is 6-3 and on a three-game winning streak. Over the last three, New Mexico heavily dominates every offense and defensive metric while playing a very similar schedule. New Mexico is off a bye week, so it’s a rare matchup in the fact both teams are coming into this contest having played the same team. New Mexico beat UNLV 40-35 in Las Vegas and Colorado State was pummeled at home by UNLV 42-10. A 14-point spread is far too small here. New Mexico should roll.
West Virginia @ Arizona State (-10.5) (1 p.m., TNT)
Coming into the season, Arizona State had big expectations to fill after a magical season last year. While those expectations have fallen short, the Arizona State roster is still deep with talent and they get some class relief in this spot of their schedule. The Sun Devils have rolled off five straight games against arguably the top five teams in the conference. Now they come off an extra week’s rest against a four-win team. Outside of a puzzling win at Houston, West Virginia has been pretty bad on the road. Arizona State holds an advantage in the rushing attack, but what I like best about this matchup is Arizona State’s matchup on the defensive side of the ball. West Virginia is 109th in the nation in sacks given up percentage while Arizona State is 24th in defensive sack percentage. If Arizona State can build the lead early, the pass rushers can pin their ears back against a passing offense outside the top 100 in every relevant category.
Boise State @ San Diego State (Team Total OVER 20.5) (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
I think we get a discount here based on a terrible showing on the road last week for San Diego State. The Aztecs only scored six points last week, but this was heavily aided by four turnovers, a turnover on downs, and a missed field goal. Now the Aztecs return home where, in three games, they have a +1.7 turnover margin. The Aztecs are 6-3 this year when scoring 20 or more and the last time they scored six points in a game, the ensuing matchup saw them score 45. SDSU also averages 1.5 more yards per play at home. On the defensive side of things, Boise has given up 20-plus points in six of nine games. Add to that, the Broncos are 83rd against the run and hopefully SDSU can light up the scoreboard this week.
Longshot parlay of the week (+786)
- Arkansas ML at LSU (12:45 p.m., SEC Network) – Rivalry game that Arkansas could steal.
- Coastal Carolina ML at Georgia Southern (6 p.m.) – Unbeaten since Samari Collier took over at QB.
- East Carolina ML vs. Memphis (4 p.m., ESPNU) – Memphis is likely to be without its starting QB.
College Football Playoff Betting Market Outlook
Instead of diving into NFL props this week, we take a look into the College Football Playoff betting market. Six teams currently have odds of -2000 or worse (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss). Texas Tech has all but secured the Big 12 spot. With one spot guaranteed to a Group of 5 team, and another guaranteed to the ACC champion, that leaves three spots open for seemingly eight teams — nine if you have a lot faith and hope for Tennessee (I do not).
Let’s dive into two teams that stand out:
Pittsburgh (+800) – It might be best to wait a week on this one with Pitt playing Notre Dame this week. The ACC is wide open right now. Pitt is 5-0 since making a QB switch, granted the competition hasn’t been stellar. But of the teams tied for first, Pittsburgh has the best margin of victory in conference. The reason the Panthers are +800 is the final two conference games are played at Georgia Tech and home against Miami. On paper it looks daunting, but Georgia Tech will be a nice matchup for Pitt as NC State showed the blueprint on how to beat Georgia Tech. You must outscore the Yellow Jackets whose defense has dropped off significantly. Pitt has scored 30 in 5 straight games, with 2 of those games ending with 48 and 50. Should they get past Georgia Tech, the final game of the season would bring a team from south Florida up to Pennsylvania in the middle of November. I’ll take my chances on the weather favoring the Panthers.
Vanderbilt (+350) – If you think Vanderbilt can beat Kentucky and Tennessee to finish the season, this price seems generous. Texas, Oklahoma, and USC are all favored pretty strongly to lose a third game. We can argue playoff resumes all day long, but they look stronger than Utah on paper. That would leave the Commodores up against a one-loss BYU team that was trounced in its only loss, and without a real signature win (unless you consider a win against Utah signature.) Notre Dame and Oregon also have very loseable games left on their schedule which gives the Commodores another avenue. Throw in the fact that Diego Pavia will more than likely at this point in the season be at the Heisman Trophy presentation come December, and Vandy might just generate enough buzz to capture an at-large spot into the playoff.