By JT CHADWELL
JT has been making bets, and winning, since he turned 21 years old and could make trips to Las Vegas. Now that online betting is available. he places his bets and wins money right from his own home. He’s sharing his expertise with our readers. Welcome to the Cheat Sheet.
Notre Dame (-28.5) @ Boston College (Saturday, 3:30 ET, ESPN)
While I am not a big fan of laying a bunch of points, we have lots of reasons to back Notre Dame in this spot. The Fighting Irish have a very soft schedule leading into the College Ffootball Playoff. They need big-margin victories to continue to build their candidacy for the selection committee. I can’t think of a better way to do that than on the road against a Boston College defense that ranks outside the top 120 in just about every team defense statistical category. Give me Notre Dame minus the points – all of the points.
Army @ Air Force, UNDER 49.5 (Saturday, Noon, CBS)
We will keep this one as plain and simple as it gets. Service academy game unders since 2006 have been hitting at over a 75% rate. Air Force run defense has been putrid throughout the season, so that can be a reason for concern, but these two teams rank first and third in the nation in run play percentage, so the clock will be in our favor here. A turnover or two here… and a missed field goal or two there… and I feel good about getting this one home.
Arizona Team Total UNDER 29.5 @ Colorado (7 p.m., FS1)
Another under this week backed by a lot of trends and stats. In seven games Arizona has only gone over this number three times. Those three games were played at home against Hawaii, Weber State, and Oklahoma State, all of which have very porous defenses. In eight games for Colorado, they have also given up 30 points only three times (Houston, Utah, and TCU). Arizona’s yards per play metric jumps from 13.6 overall to 17.6 on the road. Let’s back the Buffaloes defense at home this week to get the job done.
Mississippi State (+4.5) @ Arkansas (4 p.m., SEC Network)
After taking the big L on this site last week, let’s look for Mississippi State to get some redemption this week. A couple reasons to back the Bulldogs here. The Bulldogs have been through a very difficult part of their schedule and covered three out of four spreads along the way, helping them to a 6-1 record ATS so far this season. Mississippi State was very competitive for four quarters against Florida, Tennessee, and Texas, and for a large portion of the game on the road at Texas A&M. Arkansas is currently without a full-time head coach, and Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby seems to be making improvements a year and a half in to his tenure. This feels like a one-possession game either way that Mississippi State could win outright, so I will be happy taking 4.5 points here.
Rutgers @ Illinois OVER 60.5 (Noon, NBC and Peacock)
For the last pick of the week we go to the Big Ten. I love this spot for the Illinois offense to score some points. After scoring 34 and 43 in back-to-back weeks against USC and Purdue, the Illini drew Washington and Ohio State — much tougher defenses — and were still able to muster up 16 against the top defense in the nation and 25 against a stingy Washington defense. Rutgers is no stranger to offense either as they have scored 20 in all but one game this season, and that was against another top team in Oregon. With both defenses in this game ranking outside the top 100 in almost every statistical category when it comes to yards and points given up, I am comfortable taking the over here.
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