By JT CHADWELL
Editor’s Note: JT has been making bets, and winning, since he turned 21 years old and could make trips to Las Vegas. Now that online betting is available. he places his bets and wins money right from his own home. He’s sharing his expertise with our readers. Welcome to the Cheat Sheet.
RECAP
We went 2-3 last week, and there’s not really much to unpack. The Rutgers offensive line was massacred by the Illinois pass rush and was only able to muster up a 6-point effort. Notre Dame played like a team just trying to scoot by to the end of the year as opposed to a team needing to prove to the playoff committee that it belongs. It isn’t often we write up a play that goes to plan, but props to Mississippi State’s effort in the fourth quarter outlasting Arkansas to get the outright win.
The No Free Lunch Award: Tulane
As the saying goes “there’s no such thing as free lunch” and each week in this column we will be giving out a No Free Lunch award as a reminder to gamble responsibly. The award will go to a team that the betting public supported, but did not cover the spread. The first team to grab the honors is Tulane.
Coming into the contest at 6-1, Tulane had all the reasons to be motivated for a big performance. If the Green Wave wasn’t already in the driver’s seat for the Group of 5 College Football Playoff spot, it was very close. On top of that, with head coach John Sumrall being tossed around as a potential candidate for the head coaching vacancy at LSU, it was seemingly a great opportunity to prove to the LSU faithful that he was the man for the job. Add to that a subpar start to the season for UTSA and coming off a 55-17 beat down by North Texas, and the betting public loved the Green Wave. The betting line moved from (-3.5) on Sunday, to (-6) by game time. Despite punching UTSA in the mouth early and taking the opening drive 75 yards in seven plays, it was UTSA doing the punching for the next three and a half quarters. A mixed bag of costly turnovers, busted defensive assignments, and a career night from UTSA quarterback Owen McCown (31 of 33 passing for 370 yards and 4 TD) gave the Green Wave a quick exit from the CFP conversation, and the betting public a stark reminder that there is no such thing as free lunch.
This Week’s Best Bets
Colorado @ West Virginia (-6.5)
The fact this spread comes in under a touchdown makes West Virginia an intriguing play this week. Colorado comes off a home game where the Buffs got torched by an Arizona team that hadn’t really shown any promise as of late. Now, they must travel more than 1,300 miles across the country for a 12:00 Eastern kickoff against a West Virginia team that traditionally has a very good home field advantage (Editor’s Note: A night game in Morgantown is the only time I’ve been on the job and legitimately feared for my life!). West Virginia is coming off arguably its best performance of the year. Taking a deeper dive into the numbers makes this matchup even more enticing. Colorado is 0-3 against the spread on the road this year, missing the number by an average of 14 points per game. West Virginia is 3-1 against the spread at home. Even more encouraging, when we look at the last three games played for each team, West Virginia holds a significant advantage in every scoring and yardage gained/given up metric. The final straw here: over the last three, West Virginia is an average of +1.7 in the turnover margin, while Colorado is -1.0. If West Virginia wins the turnover battle by two or three, 6.5 points will seem like a tall task for Colorado to cover.
Duke @ UCONN (+10.5)
It isn’t often we get drawn to a number for non-statistical reasons, but Duke’s schedule is impossible to ignore here. With losses by Georgia Tech and Miami last week, Duke now stays alive in its chase for an ACC Championship birth, and potentially a playoff spot. The Blue Devils’ ambitions will be at stake in a massive game looming on deck next week at home against Virginia. Couple that with Duke coming off a high-emotion shootout win at Clemson, and this is a prime spot for a letdown. UCONN comes into this contest ranked in the top 25 in the four major offensive efficiency categories, while Duke comes in ranked outside the top 90 in all four defensive categories. UCONN is 3-1 against the spread in their last four and has won five of its last six games. Lastly, UCONN actually holds the edge in the majority of all efficiency stats, albeit against weaker competition.
2 leg parlay
TCU team total OVER 27.5
Stanford team total UNDER 21.5
TCU is 4-0 against its team total over at home this year. Iowa State started the season off ablaze rolling off five straight wins, however, the Cyclones have stumbled as of late losing four in a row. The defense has been the road block as of late for the Cyclones, specifically against the pass: Iowa State is giving up 7.3 yards per pass for the season, but when we break down the last three games that number jumps to 8.7. Meanwhile, TCU ranks 12th in the nation in pass yards per game. Another factor in favor of the Horned Frogs to get some points on the board is Iowa State’s inability to sustain long drives on offense. Over the last six games Iowa State, has only had seven possessions that lasted more than five minutes. Tired defenses often give up big plays. Let’s hope TCU can cash in on some of these opportunities this weekend.
Stanford travels to North Carolina and one thing the Heels can do under Bill Belichick is defend. Over the last three, UNC is giving up only 16 points per game. Stanford comes into this game ranking outside the top 120 in points and yards metrics, and, even further reason for concern, is 133rd in rushing yards per game. Furthermore, Stanford has traveled east of California four times this year with an average scoring total of 10 points in those four contests.
Maryland (Pk) @ Rutgers
There’s nothing quite like trying to pick a winner between teams that are a combined 2-8 over their last five each. The interesting part of this matchup is both teams have played very similar schedules and have virtually no difference in their strength of schedule rating (Rutgers 51st, Maryland 53rd). When we look at overall metrics, Maryland’s defense holds a significant advantage over the Rutgers offense. Maryland ranks 22nd defensively in points per play, while the Rutgers offense is 87th. Maryland ranks 39th in yards given up per play, while Rutgers ranks 80th in yards gained per play. For the season, the Rutgers defense holds a slight advantage over Maryland’s offense, but when we break it down over the last three games that edge swings to Maryland with both teams playing similar competition. Lets look for Maryland’s defense to travel and their offense to do enough to get them the W.
Longshot parlay of the week (+940):
If you like a riskier play with potential for a bigger payoff this one is for you.
- Bowling Green (ML) @ Eastern Michigan – Bowling Green has a better run game and defense, two things that travel well.
- Florida State (ML) @ Clemson – I would not bet on Clemson to beat anyone anywhere right now.
- Kentucky (ML) vs. Florida – Much bigger game for Kentucky than Florida.
SUNDAY NFL PROPS
Isaiah Likely OVER 23.5 receiving yards – Likely made three catches for 60 yards last week in Lamar Jackson’s first game back from injury. Likely is a big-game pass catcher for the Ravens and went over this number in both playoff games last season. The Ravens have a lot of ground to make up and need every win they can get right now. Minnesota is 21st in the league at defending the TE position.
Kyle Pitts OVER 4.5 receptions – Indianapolis is 29th in the league at defending the TE position. They have given up seven or more receptions to tight ends in each of the last four games. Pitts has hit this number in five of nine games and two of the last three while seeing 26 targets in his last three games as well.
Rico Dowdle OVER 88.5 rushing yards – Carolina has somehow found itself competing for a playoff spot. The Panthers have a QB they don’t fully trust to make plays, and a bad Saints team coming to town that struggles to stop the run. Dowdle looks like a different player since leaving Dallas. He should get plenty of opportunities to surpass this number. He has hit this line in three of the last four and sailed past it last week on the road against a much better Green Bay run defense. Dowdle is 3-for-3 to top this total this season when he gets 20 or more carries.
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