By BILLY DIXON
The Tennessee baseball team will open its road to Omaha in Chapel Hill.
The Vols (38-20) head down Interstate 40 as the No. 2 seed in the regional hosted by top seed and No. 5 overall seed North Carolina (45-11-1). Tennessee begins play on noon Friday against East Carolina (36-22-1). The Heels have the nightcap on day one against Virginia Commonwealth (37-23).
This has already been tabbed as one of the toughest brackets of the 16 regions in the NCAA Tournament. It’s a really difficult draw for the fifth-seeded Tar Heels – with a Tennessee team no one wanted to see coming to their place and two other quality teams that North Carolina has already played this season. Both ECU and VCU won their conference tournaments.
The winner of this regional will be paired in the Super Regionals against the winner of the College Station regional consisting of No. 12 seed Texas A&M, Southern Cal, Texas State, and Lamar.
Scouting the Opposition
The Vols’ opening opponent, East Carolina, has respectable stats across the board.
The Pirates’ typical Friday night pitcher – and the one most likely to take the bump Friday – is left-hander Ryan Towers (7-3, 3.04 ERA). Towers is not really a power pitcher, having only struck out 42 in 53 innings of work. The Pirates have won four of his last five starts.
ECU might also choose another lefty in Ethan Norby (7-3, 4.04 ERA), a first-team All-American Conference selection who also has a 7-3 record, a 4.04 ERA and has struck out a hefty 120 batters – tops in the conference – in 83 innings. If the game is close in the late innings, the Pirates have a reliable closer in Sean Jenkins, who leads the team with six saves to go with a 2.61 ERA and 54 strikeouts in just 41 innings.
The Vols will almost certainly counter with Friday night ace Tegan Kuhns (5-4, 3.39 ERA). The second-team, All-Southeastern Conference sophomore has won three out of his last four starts, striking out 36 in 26 innings in that span. In the unlikely scenario that coach Josh Elander opts to hold Kuhns for a potential second round matchup against North Carolina, he’d likely throw senior southpaw Evan Blanco (7-4, 4.94 ERA).
A lingering question for the Vols is the status of their third weekend starter, Landon Mack (4-4, 4.67 ERA), who missed his turn in the final two Southeastern Conference series and did not throw in either game in the conference tournament. If Mack can’t go, Elander will be left with a decision on how to handle SEC all-freshman southpaw Cam Appenzeller (6-1, 4.89 ERA, 1 Save), who was typically the first in relief out of the bullpen – especially on Fridays in relief of Kuhns – but was called on to start last Tuesday against South Carolina in the SEC tournament opener. With no Mack, Appenzeller would almost certainly need to be held until Sunday when the Vols would either be playing for the regional title, or playing in the losers bracket trying to stay alive.
Offensively, the Pirates post a strong .297 team average. Jack Herring leads the way with a sparkling .358 average to go with nine home runs and 17 doubles. Braden Burress hits .346 and Davin Whitaker .339. Burress was named first-team All-AAC and Herring made the second team.
The Vols have seen their offense pick up dramatically in the back half of the season – pushing their team average to .278.
Garrett Wright (.346) and Trent Grindlinger (.341), another SEC all-freshman choice, sport the top marks individually. Henry Ford has been the most consistent all year, entering the NCAAs hitting .300 exactly with a team-high 19 home runs and 56 RBIs.
In addition to Mack, the Vols will also have a question mark in lone everyday senior Reese Chapman (.316, 10 2B, 10 HR, 44 RBI), who was struck in the face by a line drive in pre-SEC tournament practice and missed both games in Hoover. His status is unknown, and the Vols will miss him if he can’t go.
The Vols will bring one of the top power-hitting teams in the country to Chapel Hill. They have hit 111 long balls, compared to just 56 for the Pirates.
Looking Ahead
Regardless of the outcome of Friday’s game, the Vols will play either North Carolina or VCU on Saturday.
The Tar Heels boast one of the best pitching staffs in the country, ranking 10th with a 3.92 ERA.
Jason DeCaro (10-2, 2.30 ERA) has been the staff ace. Caden Glauber (8-0), recently named Atlantic Coast Conference Freshman of the Year, has been spectacular out of the pen with a microscopic 1.93 ERA in 70 innings. Walker McDuffie is also a shutdown arm, with a 2.82 ERA and five saves. DeCaro and Glauber were first-team All-ACC picks, with McDuffie making the second unit.
The Heels will have a decision to make on whether to start DeCaro Friday or hold him for a potential matchup with the potent Vols. While outstanding throughout the roster, North Carolina has been a little less effective with their No. 2 and 3 starters, Ryan Lynch (4-4, 4.44 ERA) and Folger Boaz (3-3, 7.30 ERA).
Not only are the Heels great on the mound, they’re solid at the plate as well with a .293 batting average. Owen Hull leads the way at a .374 clip. Jake Schaffner is close behind at .362.
Although Carolina only has 76 home runs as a team, they have four individuals with double digit long balls – Cooper Nicholson (15), Gavin Gallaher (12), Erik Paulsen (10), and Macon Winslow (10).
Virginia Commonwealth earned its spot in the field by winning the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. The Rams hit .281 as a team. Like UNC and East Carolina, VCU is not a power-hitting team with only 67 homers, but the Rams do feature speed. They’ve hit 123 doubles, 10 triples, and stolen 99 bases.
Jacob Lee appears to be a one-man wrecking crew, hitting .342 with 17 homers, 14 doubles, and 56 RBIs. The VCU pitching staff features two quality starters. Friday night stalwart Patrick Steitz is 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA. Elias Holbert is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA.
Other Vol Notes of Interest
There will be plenty of time to debate the merits of Tennessee’s seeding in this tournament. The Vols’ numbers certainly seem to warrant a better result than being the 28th national seed.
This is a tough regional loaded with outstanding pitching. The Vols results this year suggest that might not be such a bad thing. They’ve been better against good teams than they have bad ones. Not only did the Vols take weekend series from three teams who are hosting next week, they also have a 16-11 record against all teams in the NCAA field, including 12 quad one wins.
Maybe more importantly, Tennessee has thrived against elite arms,
In SEC play, the Vols faced nine starting pitchers who ranked in the top 20 in the league in ERA. They went 7-2 in those games – including victories over No. 1 (Volantis, Texas), No. 5 (Valincius, Mississippi State), and No. 7 (Upchurch, Alabama).