By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Not really much to recap from last week. The top players all flexed their muscle early and often at TPC Craig Ranch. Second favorite Si Woo Kim topped the leaderboard from the start to almost the finish, but it was Wyndham Clark putting it all together once again, firing a sizzling 11 under par 60 on Sunday to win the CJ Cup by three shots. Clark’s putter had been terribly cold over the greater part of the season, but found something in the renovated greens down in McKinney. Last time Clark pulled out a win like this he went on a run that included a U.S. Open victory, so he might be one to keep an eye on for that event, which starts June 15 in New York. Before we make it to Shinnecock, we have more business to take care of here at the Tip Sheet, starting in Fort Worth Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
PAST CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE WINNERS, ODDS, AND TRENDS
- 2025, Ben Griffin (60/1) – Made three top 10s and scored a win, with three missed cuts, in his prior 11 events.
- 2024, Davis Riley (300/1) – Made six cuts with one top 15 finish in the10 events prior.
- 2023, Emiliano Grillo (75/1) – Made seven of nine cuts with a pair of top-10 finishes in nine prior events.
- 2022, Sam Burns (30/1) – In the 10 previous events, he made five cuts with a win and a second-place finish.
- 2021, Jason Kokrak (45/1) – Made the cut in all 10 prior events, with four top-15 finishes and three top 10s.
CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE
We stay in the greater Dallas area this weekend with a short trip to Fort Worth, Texas and Colonial Country Club. Colonial has been a stop on the PGA Tour for some time now, and as we see in the past winners, there is a certain type of player that tends to win here. The field this week isn’t the strongest, and perennial bridesmaid Ludvig Aberg grabs the top spot on the odds board at around 10/1. Given his mighty struggles on or near the lead in weekends, we will be staying away from this price at all costs. Rounding out the top four favorites are Russell Henley (coming off a missed cut at the PGA), Robert MacIntyre (also coming off a missed cut at the PGA), and Rickie Fowler, whose course history here has been less than stellar. Colonial Country Club is one of the more extreme course fit golf courses on the PGA Tour, and requires great skill around the green, along with precise iron play. The greens are small and tough to hit, which requires more ability to get the ball up and down more often. The number one comp course rating for Colonial belongs to Sea Island, where the RSM Classic is played in November.
THE BETTING CARD
- JUSTIN THOMAS (25/1), .2 UNITS TO WIN 5 UNITS – Going for the in form play and the price here. This isn’t the best match of a golf course for Thomas, but he has six top 25 finishes in his last eight starts, and one of those was a tie for 26th. His approach play has been elite and if it continues will hit a lot more greens than everyone else. The price seems a tad high for someone who has been playing at a very high level, especially against this field.
- ALEX SMALLEY (35/1), .15 UNITS TO WIN 5.25 UNITS – Once more, we look to an in form player. This guy is begging for his first PGA Tour win, and given the profile of the last five winners at this golf course Smalley fits that profile to a T. The course history at Colonial and Sea Island give us no confidence, but Smalley has finished five straight tournaments in the top 20, and the worst performance in any of those tournaments in the four main strokes gained categories, he lost less than a total stroke to the field on approach in the Truist.
- HARRY HALL (35/1), .15 UNITS TO WIN 5.25 UNITS – Hall is much more of a course fit than the previous two, and the results to back it up. Hall almost lit up the tote board back in 2023 at 300/1 after an incredible 62 in the opening round. He backed it up last year with a tie for sixth here. Hall’s elite short game thrives here and he can make a lot of birdies.
- PIERCESON COODY (39/1), .125 UNITS TO WIN 5 UNITS – Coody will be a local favorite this week. The Texas Longhorn product has a fifth and a 16th over this track even though it’s not the best course fit for him. The putter has gone red hot while the irons have cooled. If they both can find their way to Fort Worth he will be in the mix.
- SUNGJAE IM (44/1), .125 UNITS TO WIN 5.5 UNITS – Give me another in form player just begging for his next win. Im has been disappointing on Sundays, but he has really been putting himself at the top of the leaderboard on Thursday through Saturday. It is really just starting to feel like a matter of time for Im who boasts an elite short game and has three top 15 finishes over this track.
- STEPHAN JAEGAR (61/1), .1 UNITS TO WIN 6.1 UNITS – Jaeger boasts a very nice short game, and as an added bonus we get a hot putter and a player coming off back to back top 20’s. Jaeger was a stud on the Korn Ferry Tour, but hasn’t really yielded the same results on the PGA Tour. Hopefully some of the recently found form will boost him to the top of the leaderboard this week.
- BRIAN HARMAN (64/1) .1 UNITS TO WIN 6.4 UNITS – Harman probably has the best past results at Colonial and comp course Sea Island of anyone in this event. Harman has played this event 13 times and has made the cut 11 of them. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Waste Management in February this season. Harman is an extremely accurate driver of the golf ball and has a nice short game to go with it. Distance isn’t needed here so the course is perfect for him.
- EMILIANO GRILLO (110/1), .5 UNITS TO WIN 5.5 UNITS – Grillo will probably be on every tip sheet in America this week, so he is more than likely missing the cut. Grillo is coming to a course where he has won and finished in the top 10 twice. He is also coming off a flashy week where even though he finished T38 he made a lot of birdies and was near the top for a good bit of the week.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOT PICKS
- ZECHENG DOU 140/1
- KEITA NAKAJIMA 200/1
- BRIAN CAMPBELL 750/1
BONUS 1 UNIT PLAY – MADE CUT PARLAY (+309)
- Hideki Matsuyama to make the cut
- Sungjae Im to make the cut
- Brian Harman to make the cut
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout to make the cut