By BILLY DIXON
I give up.
Seriously.
When it comes to Tennessee baseball specifically and the Southeastern Conference in general, absolutely nothing goes as expected.
Case in point: In this space last week I told you that the key to beating Alabama was keeping its speedsters off base … but not to worry, the Vols pitching staff was among the best in the country – top five in most categories – in limiting runners. That included walks per 9 innings, WHIP, fielding, and hits allowed.
No problem, right? Well …
In Thursday night’s series opener, Tennessee pitchers gave up 10 walks and hit six batters en route to a 12-8 loss. Normally reliable hurlers Landon Mack and Cam Appenzeller were anything but, surrendering nine runs in 5 2/3 innings with seven walks and two hit batters.
Luckily, that was only one game. I couldn’t possibly miss on something else, could I?
Pulling an exact quote from last week’s column, I said “While this team does not have the shutdown pitching that is always a threat for a shutout …”
Enter Tegan Kuhns, who, with his Friday performance in game one of a double header, earned SEC and National Pitcher of the Week honors by firing a three-hit shutout. Kuhns was masterful, striking out nine in his eight innings pitched and walking only one.
Finally, for good measure, I took this team’s hitting approach to task, specifically singling out Blaine Brown. For the week, Brown snapped a serious slump by going 8-for-16 with three home runs and six RBIs, using all parts of the field. It was the Brown we’ve been expecting to see all year.
Now for what I got right: I’ve been telling you for weeks this team had the talent to snap out of their doldrums and make some noise.
The Vols are 10-3 in their last 13 games, including 6-3 in SEC contests. In that stretch, they are scoring 8.9 runs per game. In their last six, they are 5-1 with 11.5 runs per game. They’ve bashed 17 home runs to give them 82 for the season – nearing the top 10 in the country.
These results are certainly moving the Vols in the right direction, but there is still work to do. Currently in a tie for 10th in the SEC, Tennessee needs at least three more wins in its final nine league games to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. That seems very possible with series to come at Kentucky and Oklahoma, sandwiching a home stand with No. 4 Texas, but as we’ve seen throughout the season, nothing is a given.
Suddenly, however, there’s more at stake than just making a regional. Take two of three in each of these final three weekends and the Vols are likely to get a hosting bid.
While trending in the right direction, that might be a tall task in the topsy-turvy SEC. We’re starting to see a little separation at the top, but there are eight teams within two games of each other in the middle of the pack. At this point, Vols fans need to root for those top four or five teams to keep winning (excluding Texas next weekend). A top four seed and double bye in the SEC tournament is unlikely … so let those teams keep winning while the middle of the pack drops games. This will greatly improve Tennessee’s standing.
Scouting the field in the SEC
I was going to break down what the Vols needed to happen across the league the rest of the way, but with nine games remaining, there are just too many scenarios. Maybe next week. For now, we’ll take an overview of where SEC teams stand in their quest for the postseason. There is still plenty of wiggle room in these categories for movement.
Locks for a top 8 seed (hosting a regional and potential super regional): Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, and Auburn
Locks for a 9-16 seed (hosting a regional): Mississippi State
The SEC is currently projected to have 12 teams in the NCAA field overall, including seven host teams. With the standings so tightly bunched and so many crucial head-to-heads to come, there’s just too many scenarios to lock in other hosts. Right now, based on RPI, Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss are leaders in the clubhouse to be regional hosts.
Additional Region Locks: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Not Eliminated, But Need To Get Hot: Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Not Making a Regional: South Carolina, LSU, Missouri.
Midweek Musings
Tennessee took care of business early against an overpowered West Georgia team with an easy 13-0 run-rule victory on Tuesday night. The Vols scored nine runs in the first two innings thanks to four home runs. They hit five long balls in all. Seven pitchers combined for a 4-hit shutout.
Up Next
The Vols (30-15, 10-11) return to a traditional Friday-Saturday-Sunday schedule when they travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (27-15, 9-12). Game times are set for 6:30 Friday, 2:00 Saturday, 1:00 Sunday. All games can be streamed on SEC Network+.
Based on his big game against Alabama, Kuhns (3-3, 2.90 ERA) gets the starting call Friday night. He’ll take on southpaw Ben Cleaver (1-3, 4.60 ERA). On Saturday, Evan Blanco (5-2, 3.84 ERA), who’s usually been the Sunday anchor for Tennessee, goes against Jaxon Jelkin (6-2, 3.96 ERA), arguably Kentucky’s most effective starting pitcher. On Sunday, Mack (3-4, 5.01 ERA) goes against Connor Mattison (2-1, 5.81 ERA, who only has four starts on the year and 31 innings pitched in 11 total appearances.
Don’t expect anyone to go very long for Kentucky. In the last two SEC weekends, they used 18 total pitchers against Vanderbilt and 14 last week against South Carolina.
After a really hot start, the Wildcats have fallen on some hard times. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 and allowed 88 runs in that stretch – including eight or more runs seven times. What the Cats DO do well is run the bases. From that standpoint, it will be even more important for Tennessee to limit base runners than it was last week against Alabama. Kentucky has stolen an amazing 105 bases in 127 attempts. The Wildcats are hitting .251 in conference games with a second worst 19 home runs. On the mound, their SEC ERA is 14th at 6.44.
Conversely, Tennessee has raised its batting average to .252 with an ERA of 5.34.
Overall for Kentucky, Jayce Tharnish leads the way with a .366 average and 24-of-25 stolen bases. Hudson Brown is hitting at a .358 clip. Ethan Hindle leads the team with eight home runs while hitting .283.