By BILLY DIXON
Good luck figuring out the Southeastern Conference in baseball this year.
It’s not just Tennessee, it’s across the board. Either 14 of the 16 teams in this league are fully capable of winning the College World Series, or for the first time in nearly a decade, the conference is having a down year.
My best guess at this point is that it’s a little bit of both. I just don’t see a dominant lineup in the conference. I don’t see a shutdown staff. I don’t see a runaway national player of the year.
What I do see are a bunch of teams that have all it takes to get on a run at the right time and extend the SEC’s national championship streak to six.
Let’s take Tennessee, for example. I’ve been telling you since starting this weekly column that the talent was there for this team to be a force before the year was over. I warned you not to fall for the 4-8 league record, that the Vols could just as easily be 10-2 in SEC play. Last week, in fact.
And still.
Even I didn’t see the Vols going into Starkville and sweeping a team that was currently ranked No. 9 and had been in the top five all season. I think winning one of three would have been acceptable. Taking a second and getting the series win? A best-case scenario.
Instead, the Vols got an absolutely amazing pitching performance from seven guys and the pitching staff provided coach Josh Elander the blueprint for success going forward.
There are talented arms up and down this roster. That doesn’t mean all of them are ready for SEC play. What we got last weekend was extended outings from the starters. This allowed Cam Appenzeller and Brandon Arvidson the opportunity to close out the game. In the rare instances where Tennessee got in a bit of a jam, Elander allowed his pitchers to work their way out of it.
There’s danger with that, too. These guys have proven they don’t have their best stuff every time taking the mound – with Appenzeller being the exception – but it’s clear that Landon Mack, Tegan Kuhns, Evan Blanco, Arvidson, Appenzeller, and Bo Rhudy are the Vols’ best. In a three-game series, that’s who Tennessee is going to live and die with on the mound.
Equally as important in the sweep was the emergence of some offense. The Vols didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard, posting six, six, and seven runs in the three games, but the Vols did get timely hitting. Not only that, they jumped into early leads, scoring eight of their 19 runs in the first three innings. Maybe most impressive was their ability to answer. Seven times in the three games, the Vols answered Mississippi State scores with runs of their own within two innings. Four times, they responded in their very next turn at bat.
There were no holes in the lineup either, with almost everyone contributing in a big way. Garrett Wright has settled into the leadoff role, hitting .500 over the weekend. Sophomore Blake Grimmer and freshman Trent Grindlinger are proving to be anchors in the middle of the lineup.
SEC Chaos
With the sweep, Tennessee moves its league record to 7-8 – which happens to be part of a five-way logjam for ninth. What’s amazing, however, is that the Vols now find themselves only two games back in the win column from second. Twelve teams are crammed into a window separated by only one weekend series.
We’ll talk about the opportunity facing the Vols this weekend a bit later, but let’s take a look a little farther down the road.
A couple weeks ago, I tried to paint the picture of what it will take to get into the postseason. The Vols need 16-18 SEC wins to host a regional. Managing 13 conference wins should get them into a regional somewhere.
At the halfway point, getting the projected 13 wins needed to be a top 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament and super regional host just isn’t likely. No one is going 13 or more wins the rest of the way in the SEC.
The Vols are, however, in a position where 16 wins in the conference is good enough to host a regional. Maybe 15, but let’s keep recent history in mind and look at what 16-14 means.
To get to that mark, Tennessee will need to go at least 12-6 in the last six series. They’re already 3-0 and have three of the final five weekend slates at home against Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas.The Rebels and Tide are both sitting at 8-7. Like Mississippi State, the Longhorns have been a top five team all year, but have started showing cracks in the armor.
Making that kind of run at the end of the season would likely put the Vols in the top five in league standings. With a potential overall record of 38-18, that should be good enough for a 10-12 seed.
If we’re just looking at making a regional anywhere, the Vols would need to close conference play with at least a 6-9 record. That might be cutting it close based on what happens across the country. The SEC tournament has historically provided additional opportunities to get those needed wins when on the bubble.To be assuredly safe, they would need to match their current track of being seventh or eighth and add a conference tourney win.
Midweek review
How did I get to a final record of 38-18? I made the dangerous assumption the Vols will go ahead and win their last four midweek games.
NEVER NEVER NEVER make this assumption. Florida and Oklahoma took Ls On Tuesday this week. As I’ve said over and over, there are no givens.
Meanwhile, with an 11-1 run-rule victory over UNC Asheville Tuesday night, Tennessee improved to 10-0 midweek this year, remaining the only undefeated SEC team in such contests.
The Bulldogs put up a good fight Tuesday, getting an outstanding starting performance from Garrett Crum – who held Tennessee’s offense to just two runs and four hits through five innings. As his pitch count exceeded 100 in the sixth inning, however, Tennessee bats finally got to Crum, then finished things off with nine total runs in their final three innings at bat.
It was also great to see Blaine Brown make his return to the mound. The sophomore two-way player made just his fourth pitching appearance – cruising through his lone inning. Taylor Tracey was also solid in his two innings.
For the Vols to make a postseason run, those two guys seem to be the most likely to step up and add to the arm depth.
Next Up
The Vols (25-12, 7-8) welcome Ole Miss (27-11, 8-7) to Lindsey Nelson Stadium this weekend. Game times are set for 6:30 p.m. ET Friday, 6 p.m., on Saturday, and 1 on Sunday. All games can be watched online on SEC+.
In a great example of the craziness that is the SEC, the Rebels were swept just a couple of weeks ago by Mississippi State. But they followed those losses by taking two of three from Florida and sweeping LSU this last weekend.
The Rebels starting pitching has been very good. They’ve alternated who starts on which night, but going by last week, the Vols are likely to see Hunter Elliott on Friday. Elliott is 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA. He has 68 strikeouts in 46 innings pitched. He is prone to the longball, giving up 7 already.
Saturday’s Ole Miss starter should be Cade Townsend, who also posts a 3-1 mark to go with a 2.02 ERA. He also averages far more than one strikeout per inning.
Sunday’s starter should be Taylor Rabe (3-1, 3.16 ERA).
Ole Miss has a couple of reliable arms out of the pen but overall pitching depth has been a problem. The Rebs have a team ERA of 3.72, comparable to Tennessee’s 3.93.
Ole Miss’s similarities to the Vols extends to the plate as well, where the Rebels are hitting .263 with 57 home runs, and 250 runs scored. For comparison, the Vols are hitting at a .268 clip with 57 HRS and 252 runs scored.
Unlike Tennessee, the Rebels’ damage is coming primarily from two guys. Tristan Bissetta is hitting .324 with 15 HRs and 40 RBIs. Judd Uttermark has added 13 long balls and 33 RBIs. Will Furniss is the only other Ole Miss batter hitting over .300.