By J.T. CHADWELL
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS AND PLAYS
The time has come for one of, if not my favorite, events of the year, the Kentucky Derby. In this edition of the Chadwell Cheat Sheet we will take a look at the 20 horses set to run this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby and get into some suggested exotic plays and a pick 4 ticket if you are more of a vertical player.
1) Renegade (4/1)- Had Renegade drawn two or three spots outside of this, he would be the clear favorite of this race. He is coming off two very impressive multi-length victories and gets piloted by the best jockey in the world right now. But the concern with the No. 1 post is too much to play this horse to win at 4/1. No horse has won the derby from the rail since 1986. We will be using this horse underneath in exotics, but passing on the win.
2) Albus (30/1) – Longish shot winner of the Wood Memorial draws the 2 post. This horse got smoked late in the fall in the maiden special weight division before finally getting a win at Tampa Bay Downs and then a surprising rally to win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. A son of Yaupon, the pedigree doesn’t scream distance. Toss in the poor speed figures and I will be tossing this horse from all plays.
3) Intrepido (50/1) – West Coast shipper coming in off three straight losses, two of which came by double digit lengths. With an underwhelming pedigree and poor speed figures, this horse will be a toss for all plays.
4) Litmus Test (50/1) – The only thing going for this horse is that he is trained by Bob Baffert. That alone gives him a chance. Unfortunately it appears like it’s a very small chance, Litmus Test is 2-for-7 and finished seventh last time out. Not a good formula to beat the best. However, combine the seven races under his belt with a hall of fame trainer like Bob Baffert, and this horse can be tossed in the bottom of exotics.
5) Right to Party (30/1) – A second-place finisher from the Wood Memorial that is strictly here on points and nothing else. Was 39/1 in that runner-up finish and hasn’t raced outside the state of New York. Workouts haven’t been great at Churchill. Another toss here.
6) Commandment (6/1) – We’re finally back to a horse with a chance to win. Commandment is 4/5 lifetime and gets the formidable team of trainer Brad Cox and jockey Luis Saez. Commandment rattled off three straight wins at Gulfstream Park in the prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. The pedigree looks good, the workouts have been good as well, and the horse has a nice late kick. It should be noted jockey Flavien Prat (who is 75% in the money in the Kentucky Derby) chose to ride the 15 horse here instead of this one. Definitely worth a look for a win and underneath in exotics.
7) Danon Bourbon (20/1) – The biggest wild card in this race. The horse is 3/3 and earns his way in through the Japanese circuit automatic qualifier. This is a big, athletic horse that reminds me a lot of Animal Kingdom when he won the Kentucky Derby in 2011. The problem is, the horses that have shipped from Japan to run the Derby have all fell way short of high expectations except Forever Young who missed by a nose. Danon Bourbon ran three seconds faster in his final race in Japan than Forever Young did. If this horse has no traffic issues when hitting his stride, it’s not inconceivable he could win. Will be using this horse.
8) So Happy (15/1) – Seemingly the West Coast’s best chance at the rose garland. The Santa Anita Derby winner is 3-for-4 lifetime and has speed figures competitive enough to win. A son of Runhappy, a champion sprinter, I expect So Happy to be near or at the front early. If the pace is soft and the distance isn’t a problem, he might be the one to chase down.
9) The Puma (10/1) – This seems to be the buzz horse around Churchill Downs this week. Lots of money rolling in on this horse early. Finished second in the Florida Derby, and looked like he was gassed coming home. I’m not sold this horse can get the 1 ¼ miles needed to win here, but will be using underneath. If you like to follow the money, this might be your horse.
10) Wonder Dean (30/1) – The other Japanese horse in the field. He’s not as good as the 7 horse, and the past history of Japanese runners is enough for this one to be a toss.
11) Incredibolt (20/1) – Winner of the prep race at Colonial Downs this year. Son of 2018 Kentucky Derby winner Bolt D’Oro, the horse looks bred to love the extra distance this race brings. He’s 3 for 5 lifetime and has two prior wins, one being a stakes race, over the Churchill Downs surface. He may not be good enough to beat the best, but he is one that could definitely run up to grab a piece of the exotics.
12) Chief Wallabe (8/1) – Another horse generating some buzz on the property this week. Chief Wallabe lacks some experience having only raced three times, but he seems to get better with each race. Another step forward and this horse could absolutely be the winner on Saturday. He is adding blinkers with hopes of getting a little more forwardly placed to avoid traffic running late. Definitely a horse to use underneath.
13) Silent Tactic – SCRATCHED
14) Potente (20/1) – I think this horse could be being overlooked. He has 4 things I love to see in a horse. His speed figures look competitive to the field, he has an early pace advantage, so a clean trip is much more likely, he has drawn an outside post to give his jockey Juan Hernandez options, and he is trained by Baffert. The early pool has this horse floated up to 28/1 and that would be worth a win play for me. I will be using this horse underneath in exotics as well.
15) Emerging Market (15/1) – This is another horse with a lot going for him. He’s the winner of the Louisiana Derby, and that success translates to Churchill better than any other surface. He also gets champion jockey Flavien Prat aboard who has finished 14 out of 16 Triple Crown races in fourth or better. The lone thorn in the side for the 15 is experience. He only has two races under his belt and didn’t race at all in 2025. The talent is there, the pedigree is there, but it will take a step forward to get the win.
16) Pavlovian (50/1) – He’s 2 for 10 lifetime and one of those wins was at Sunland Park. Easy toss.
17) Six Speed (50/1) – A Dubai shipper that is in on qualifying win at Meydan in March. Dubai horses never compete at the Derby. Toss.
18) Further Ado (6/1) – Hard to put a pulse on where this horse stands on the hierarchy of this field. His Blue Grass Stakes win was ultra impressive, but how good was that field? His previous race to that, he got outdueled in the stretch by The Puma. Irad Ortiz turned this ride down to jump on Renegade, but if he could’ve seen the post position draw first, would he have taken this horse instead? He has tactical speed and should have no problems getting a clean trip. John Velazquez jumps aboard and is notorious for piloting rejected horses to wins in big races (see Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Authentic in 2020). The horse can win the race, no question. I just wonder if someone will run bigger than he is capable of. Nonetheless, this horse is a must use in all exotic plays.
19) Golden Tempo (30/1) – This price seems a bit high and the horse isn’t getting much play early. Definitely a horse I would be willing to throw in exotics to catch lightning in a bottle. The horse has only ran at the Fair Grounds, has never been higher than 7/2, and is 4 for 4 in the money. In both Derby preps at the Fair Grounds the horse was bumped and had to swing almost to the grandstands to find room to run. He gets the other Ortiz brother who can pilot very good as well.
20) Fulleffort (20/1) – Will be playing this one purely to root for as my favorite jockey Tyler Gafflione gets the call. The horse runs in the Northern Kentucky/Cincinnati area that I frequent. I’m not sure this horse can get to the finish line first, and as of early betting he is down to 19/1 which is a terrible price for this horse. But, he can run late and will be using him in exotics.
21) Great White (50/1) – This horse doesn’t belong here. He should be running much earlier in the card, but every owner has a dream and it wasn’t long ago that Rich Strike drew in and didn’t belong and picked off the entire field at 81/1. Lighting isn’t striking twice. Toss.
KENTUCKY DERBY PLAYS
$0.50 TRIFECTA KEY $116
7,15,18 OVER 1,6,7,9,12,15,18,19 OVER 1,4,6-9,11,12,14,15,18-20
$2 EXACTA $36
12,14/1, 6-9, 12,14,15,18,19