By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
A 9-9 record over the course of the Holiday and the weekend. We were an otherworldly play from Patrick Mahomes away from probably being 10-8, but still not a losing week. Now we get to attack some really fun college football championship games this week.
The No Free Lunch Award: Oklahoma
Boomer Sooner was not booming last Saturday in Norman. Oklahoma came into its game against LSU garnering the 6th most public support on the college football slate. The Sooners opened as 9.5 point favorites and were bet up to 11.5 by game time. With LSU focused on landing a new coach, an inexperienced sophomore quarterback on the road against one of the nation’s top defenses, and Oklahoma’s need for a win to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, the public agreed the Sooners should roll on Saturday. If you watched the game or looked at the box score without looking at the final score, you would assume the 11.5 points was covered with ease, but as is the recurring theme in this part of the cheat sheet, Oklahoma’s sloppiness on offense and three turnovers prevented the Sooners from covering the 11.5 and needing a busted coverage from LSU to eke out an ugly 17013 win. The Sooners outgained LSU 393-198, but give us a staunch reminder that there’s no such thing as free lunch in sports betting.
This week’s plays
FRIDAY
Sun Belt Conference Championship: Troy at James Madison (-22.5) O/U 47.5 (7 p.m., ESPN)
It’s rare these days a conference championship game sees a spread of more than a couple possessions, but James Madison has every reason to pour on the points this weekend. A spot in the College Football Playoff hangs in the balance for a team that wasn’t even in the FBS until 2022. Yes, James Madison coach Bob Chesney is heading to UCLA, but I do not think that matters here. The reality is Troy has a bad offense and James Madison has a really good defense. To add insult to injury James Madison has a top 10 rushing attack while Troy has a run defense ranking outside the top 100. We aren’t overthinking this one.
The pick: James Madison -22.5
C-USA Championship: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (-1.5) O/U 58.5 (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
In only its second year in the FBS division of college football, Kennesaw has burst onto the scene and is quietly having a fantastic season. There is a lot to like about this team heading into this battle for the Conference USA title. The Owls played four of their last six games on the road, winning three of them outright. Their only loss came against this Jacksonville State squad by nine points. There isn’t a ton that separates these two teams, and it is very difficult to beat the same team twice in a season. Kennesaw matches up very well offensively, boasting a top 40 passing attack, while Jacksonville State’s pass defense ranks outside the top 100. The key for the Owls will be stopping Jacksonville State’s 4th ranked rushing offense.
The pick: Kennesaw State +1.5 and the OVER 58.5
AAC Championship: North Texas (-2.5) at Tulane O/U 67.5 (8 p.m., ABC)
North Texas has exploded onto the scene this year under Eric Morris, who will be leaving for Oklahoma State at the end of this season. North Texas has been the second-best team against the spread all season with a record of 10-2. In seven of the 10 covers, they have beat the spread by more than one possession. Tulane, on the other hand, is 2-5 against the spread over its last seven. Even worse for Tulane, the pass defense over those seven games has been atrocious. North Texas has the No. 2 passing attack in the country, while on the other side of the ball the Mean Green have the 12th=ranked defense against the pass. If Tulane wants to win this game, it will have to happen with the run game and controlling the clock, and I don’t see that happening.
The pick: North Texas -2.5
MWC Championship: UNLV at Boise State (-3.5) O/U 57.5
Can the Runnin Rebels overcome the ghost of Mountain West past this weekend? Boise State comes into this championship matchup having covered five spreads in a row against UNLV, with four of those meetings coming in the last two years. More recently, the two teams met on October 18th on this same field and Boise State overpowered UNLV by 25 points in a game that saw 87 points scored. Boise State’s strength at home is its defense. Add in the fact the total of this game opens 30 points lower than the actual result of the last game they played, and I think we can expect a more low-scoring affair.
The pick: UNLV Team Total UNDER 27.5
SATURDAY
Big 12 Championship: BYU vs Texas Tech (-13.5) O/U 50.5 (Noon, ABC)
Yet another rematch here, and I think the spread on this game is probably pretty spot on. Just four weeks ago, Texas Tech came out victorious by 22 points by a score of 29-7. Although the Cougars gave up 29 points, the BYU defense was not all that disappointing, holding the Red Raiders to 368 yards of offense. The 29 points was aided by an inept BYU offense turning the ball over three times and missing a field goal. There really wasn’t much to highlight from an offensive standpoint in the first matchup, so let’s look for both defenses to play well again.
The pick: UNDER 50.5
MAC Championship: Miami OH vs Western Michigan (-2.5) O/U 43.5 (Noon, ESPN)
It really feels like this game should be on Tuesday night instead of the weekend, but regardless of what day it is, I like this matchup for Western Michigan. This is the second championship game of the weekend that features a rematch of teams that played a nine-point game in their first matchup. Miami took the regular season matchup 26-17. Since then, Western Michigan holds advantages in a majority of the offensive and defensive efficiency categories. The Broncos also come into this contest on a four-game win streak.
The pick: Western Michigan -2.5
SEC Championship: Georgia vs Alabama (+2.5) O/U 47.5 (4 p.m., ABC)
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me this much (even the sportsbooks), I guess it’s shame on everyone. Alabama and Georgia have met 14 times since 2000. The underdog has covered in 11 of these 14 games. Alabama specifically has been underdogs in five straight head to heads, and has won four of them outright. We can talk X’s and O’s and analyze data points until we are blue in the face, but the reality is Kirby Smart is 1-7 against Alabama and the underdog dominates this matchup. Add in the fact that 13 of the 14 head to heads since 2002 are over to the total set here and the pick is simple.
The pick: Alabama +2.5 and OVER 47.5
**Added Data point: Six of the 14 matchups have seen the total end up between 48 and 52 points. You can currently get that at +475. Add in Alabama to win and it turns to +1100.
Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs Indiana (+5.5) O/U 48.5 (8 p.m., FOX)
The conventional thing to do looking at this spread is take Ohio State and not think twice because Indiana is a basketball school that isn’t a serious football school. This Ohio State defense is no joke, but I think this ends up a much closer game than many will expect. Both teams have been so good on both sides of the ball all season, albeit against mostly weak competition. In a game like this, the small things matter more and Indiana does the small things very well. They have the fourth best turnover margin in the nation while Ohio State ranks 50th. Indiana is seventh in the nation in converted field goal percentage and fourth in penalties per game. Keep it clean and Indiana can keep this one close.
The pick: Indiana +5.5
ACC Championship: Duke vs Virginia (-3) O/U 57.5 (8 p.m., ABC)
Based on preseason rankings, this is probably the most unlikely conference championship matchup on the docket. How did these two teams wind up here? Efficient offense. Both teams rank in the top 20 in the nation in turnover margin. We get a Duke pass defense that ranks 133rd in pass yards per game, but a Duke pass offense that ranks in the top 20. I think both teams come out firing and we see the scoreboard light up.
The pick: OVER 57.5