By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
I guess we can’t win every tournament. Jacob Bridgeman went scorched earth on Friday and Saturday to build just enough of an insurmountable lead at the Genesis Invitational. We had the right idea going against the heavy favorite(s), but it’s Bridgeman who eventually got the win. This tournament reminded me very much of last year’s Waste Management Open when Thomas Detry, a player of very similar caliber, had a career week with both his irons and his putter at the same time. Bridgeman did the same last week at Riviera, doing things that the golf course hasn’t seen in the history of its existence. Bridgeman gained over six shots alone on approach in his Saturday round. That is what we call a statistical anomaly and they happen from time to time. We were due for something crazy and it happened. Nonetheless we end the west coast swing with a +7.25 unit gain and it’s time to get back to our winning ways this week at the Cognizant (formerly Honda) Classic.
Cognizant Classic
The Cognizant Classic was long known as the Honda classic until the sponsorship change 2 seasons ago. This tournament is held at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. PGA National is best known for its challenging stretch of finishing holes nicknamed the Bear Trap. No lead is safe at the end here, as water comes into play in three of the final four holes. Not only will players see new grass and new greens surfaces as they head back East, they also see a completely different challenge than the past few courses they have played. Historically, PGA National doesn’t have very penalizing rough, so accurate driving isn’t at a premium. The other component that really won’t have a ton of effect this week is short game. With a lot of non-penal rough around the greens, and mostly flat greens, getting up and down will be fairly easy for most players. Sepp Straka and Chris Kirk gained less than a half a shot to the field around the greens in their wins. Angles into greens and approach shots are the premium token when playing PGA National. The past five winners of this tournament have gained over 22 (!) shots on approach.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025: Joe Highsmith (110/1) – In the five events prior, made two of five cuts including a top 20 finish the week before this tournament.
- 2024: Austin Eckroat (125/1) – Made four of five cuts in the five events prior.
- 2023: Chris Kirk (30/1) – Made two of three cuts and finished in the top five twice in the three events prior.
- 2022: Sepp Straka (125/1) – Made five of five cuts with two top-20s in the five events prior.
- 2021: Matt Jones (75/1) – Made eight of nine cuts with three top-20s in the nine events prior.
COURSE SETUP AND STATS
When looking at the past winners of this event, it is quite obvious that iron play will be at a high priority this week. Many of the par 4s and par 5s require good angles hitting into the greens because of doglegs. Precision off the tee to set up good angles into the greens will be important as well. The course overall gives a good test of different yardages into greens, so no need to focus on a specific yardage for approach stats. The first thing we will want to look for are hot iron players, but also consistently good iron players that this course will fit well even though their form may not be the best in other areas of their game. Good form coming into this event isn’t a deal breaker this week. Of the prior five champions here, only Kirk had posted a top 10 finish to this point in the season prior to winning. Bogey avoidance will also be key here this week, especially on the par 3s. Since getting up and down isn’t difficult at this golf course, a lot of pars will be made, while at the same time birdies aren’t always plentiful. Three of the last five tournaments have yielded a winning score of 14 under par or worse (The last 2 the average winning score was 18 under par).
Now let’s find some great players with bladed clubs in their hand that I look to have success this weekend.
THE BETTING CARD
What a change up we get this week from the past few weeks. None of the world’s best 25 players are in Palm Beach this weekend and there are a lot of names at the top of the odds board that are not used to hoisting trophies on Sunday. It will be bombs away this week!
- Haotong Li (47/1), .11 units to win 5.28 units – Li comes to Palm Beach on a run of four worldwide top 15s and gained heavily on approach in all of them. I’m willing to throw out the Waste Management where he lost five shots on approach at this number.
- Mac Meissner (49/1), .11 units to win 5.5 units – Meissner hasn’t missed a cut since July and has gained on approach in all those starts. I had him pegged as someone who could get win No. 1 this season. Maybe its this week.
- Will Zalatoris (50/1), .1 units to win 5.1 units – A little bit of a number grab on one of the game’s best iron players when he’s fully healthy. In three starts since coming back we have seen flashes of some high quality iron play. Too big of a number for a player like Zalatoris in a field like this, fully healthy or not.
- Johnny Keefer (52/1) – Rookies have a great track record at Palm Beach and no other rookie is as highly touted as Keefer. This track fits his profile to a T and if the putter can get hot he will be right there on Sunday.
- Jordan Smith (53/1), .1 units to win 5.4 units – Maybe the best iron player of the DP World Tour graduates coming to the PGA this year. Smith has only missed two cuts since September and is fresh off a tie for 16th at Scottsdale.
- Michael Brennan (57/1), .1 units to win 5.8 units – Brennan has the potential to be a breakout star this season on the PGA Tour. He won his first career start by four shots back in the fall. The first couple starts of the season have been sub-par, but he has the quality to turn it around with the flip of a switch.
- Sami Valimaki (62/1), .1 units to win 6.3 units – Valimaki had a bit of a hangover after his first PGA Tour win at the end of the fall. He is getting back on track with three straight made cuts. Fantastic iron player with a good putter to back it up.
- John Parry (63/1), .08 units to win 5.12 units – Parry is another quality iron player that was on fire to end the season on the DP Tour. The transition to the PGA Tour has been good for Parry as well; he has only missed one cut since October and none on the PGA Tour yet.
- David Ford (110/1), .065 units to win 7.21 units – I love this play this week. Ford has been red hot on approach lately. He achieved his tour card by being the top college player in the PGA Tour U standings last season. Hes a good putter who has just not been making putts his first few starts on tour. Maybe the new greens surfaces this week will be what he needs.
- Austin Smotherman (130/1), .045 units to win 6.48 units – Smotherman quietly has been the No. 1 approach player on tour over the last six months. If any part of his game is average, he could have a big week.
- Adam Hadwin (175/1), .05 units to win 8.8 units – Hadwin lost his tour card for the first time in many many years last season. He is coming off a top 5 on the Korn Ferry Tour and the best way to get that Tour Card back is to win this week.
- Zach Bauchou (200/1), .025 units to win 5.02 units – Final dart to throw this week. Bauchou has had a very impressive start to the PGA season and could get into contention here as well.