By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Recapping from two weeks ago, there weren’t many positive takeaways. No one really got going well enough to get into serious contention, and it was Matt Fitzpatrick outdueling Marco Penge, David Lipsky, and Sung-jae Im to give him a second place finish (loss in a playoff), and a win heading into The Masters. Our total profit for the year now stands at 3.46 units after losing a unit at the Valspar. We are back after a week of respite and headed to San Antonio where you better bring a short game to the table, or else you will be headed to the house on cut day.
TEXAS OPEN PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025, Brian Harman (80/1) – Made six cuts with three top 25 finishes in the eight prior events.
- 2024, Akshay Bhatia (60/1) – Made five of nine cuts with five top 20 finishes in his nine prior events.
- 2023, Corey Conners (20/1) – Made six of seven cuts with four top 25 finishes.
- 2022, JJ Spaun (140/1) – Made the cut in six of eight events with two top 25 finishes.
- 2021, Jordan Spieth (12/1) – Made six of seven cuts with four top-10 finishes.
The Valero Texas Open
It is the last before heading to golf’s crown jewel, Augusta National Golf Club next week for The Masters. The field is fairly strong, as many solid players have opted to use TPC San Antonio as a warm up before heading to Augusta for The Masters next week. And why not, based on the skill set needed to win here. Augusta comes in as the third-ranked comp course, mostly due to the skill set around the greens that players need this week. TPC San Antonio has small greens, many of which require medium to long approaches into them. This results in one of the lowest GIR percentage tournaments played all year, meaning a lot of players miss more greens than usual. Akshay Bhatia gained just over six strokes around the greens in his win here in 2024, and none of the five past champions gained less than two strokes to the field. 2021 champion Jordan Spieth is widely known for his incredible short game, and in his last seven trips here he has an average finishing position of 14th.
Key indicators this week will be strokes gained around the greens over the last 3-6 months, along with prior history at TPC San Antonio as it ranks above average in predictive value.
This Week’s Betting Card
- ROBERT MACINTYRE (16.5/1) .175 UNITS TO WIN 3.06 UNITS – We start the week with the Scottish lefty who is on an insane run of form since August of last year. His strength is his short game and is coming off a fourth-place finish at Sawgrass that saw him gain strokes to the field in all four categories.
- HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (23/1) .2 UNITS TO WIN 4.8 UNITS – Back to the well on Hideki at a course that doesn’t require elite driving (his driving has been far from elite this season). Oddly enough in five trips here, Matsuyama hasn’t got his short game going in the right direction, so we will lean on current form here. Even without the short game he has still posted two top-15 finishes on this course.
- KEITH MITCHELL (38/1) .1 UNITS TO WIN 3.9 UNITS – I’ve been waiting on the right spot and the right number to add Mitchell to an outright card for a while, and maybe this week is the one. Mitchell has been striking it beautifully as of late and hasn’t missed a cut since October. In four trips here, he hasn’t finished outside the top 30. Mitchell’s short game is a little inconsistent, but if he can find it this week, expect him to be near the top.
- ALEX NOREN (39/1) .125 UNITS TO WIN 5 UNITS – Noren had a crazy run of form in the fall (2 wins, a 2nd, and a 3rd), but didn’t back that up to start the PGA season. The last 4fourevents have been better for Noren, and gained round the greens in all those starts. Furthermore, he finished top 15 in both previous trips here (2024 and 2025). The course should and seems to fit Noren’s game very well.
- NICK TAYLOR (52/1) .1 UNITS TO WIN 5.3 UNITS – Taylor had a run of seven straight top 40s before losing 4.5 shots to the field off the tee in only two days at the Valspar and missing the cut. Lucky for him the driver doesn’t need to be working to win here, and he is on a four event streak of gaining 4 or more shots to the field around the greens. He also has three top-25 finishes in seven trips here and contended near the top before fading to 15th last year.
- SUDARSHAN YELLAMARAJU (74/1) .1 UNITS TO WIN 7.4 UNITS – Of all the Korn Ferry Tour graduates this season, Sudarshan has easily been the most impressive. He doesn’t make a lot of bogeys and has been playing some fantastic golf on the weekends. His short game hasn’t been great, so the course may not fit him and we have no previous course history to go off, but I’ll take my chances at 74/1 on someone who is essentially gaining strokes in every event they play.
- CHRIS KIRK (92/1) .05 UNITS TO WIN 4.65 UNITS – Maybe a bit out of the box on this one, but Kirk has a lot of success at TPC San Antonio, racking up five career top 15 finishes. This is a pretty high number on someone who fits the bill here, and has only lost strokes on approach once since July.
- ANDREW NOVAK (115/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 8.7 UNITS – Number is way too high for someone who hits it as well as he does, and he also has had success here. Novak has two top 10s here in four trips and lots of cuts made this year. That’s two things we are looking for this week at a triple digit price. Sign me up.
- ANDREW PUTNAM (210/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 15.82 UNITS – Bombs away here. Putnam is quietly having a decent season making four of six cuts, but he hasn’t lost strokes on approach or around the greens. A hot putter puts Putnam in the mix at a massive number.