By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
The Sony Open concludes with Chris Gotterup closing the deal at 45/1. Thankfully we added Gotterup after the second round to get a little bit of profit for the week. As for the pre-tournament card, Ryan Gerard had another nice tournament and comes up just short in solo second place, finishing two shots off Gotterup’s total of -16. Corey Conners and Si Woo Kim also had very good ball striking weeks, but neither could make a putt all week. The longshots Takumi Kanaya and Nick Dunlap spent the better part of the week inside the top 15, but ultimately couldn’t made headway over the weekend.
We now move on to the second event of the season: The American Express, in Palm Springs, CA.
AMERICAN EXPRESS PREVIEW
Shop small. At least that’s what this week’s title sponsor American Express suggests in regards to small and local businesses. I encourage everyone to visit their favorite small business this week. However, this week in regards to the PGA’s second tournament of the year we will not be shopping small. Instead we will be looking for some large prices to blow up the leaderboard. And with Scottie Scheffler in the field, the card will look a little different than last week’s. It will be a very deep betting card due to the volatility of this event. To start off let’s look at the past winners and their form coming in to this tournament.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025: Sepp Straka (65/1) – Three straight top 30s prior and gained over four shots per tournament on approach.
- 2024: Nick Dunlap (350/1) – No data available. Dunlap won as an amateur.
- 2023: Jon Rahm (6/1) – Won his previous start and had three straight top 10s.
- 2022: Hudson Swafford (200/1) – Made five of his past six cuts and gained strokes on approach in all six of those starts.
- 2021: Si Woo Kim (65/1) – Made six of his last eight cuts with three top 25 finishs and a top 10.
COURSE HISTORY AND SETUP
The American Express is the first of a few stops on the PGA Tour where players will play multiple courses throughout the week. This is one of many reasons this event is one of the most difficult, if not the most, to judge based on prior results. Another important caveat to this setup: Thursday through Saturday is played as a pro-am where professionals are paired in the same group with amateurs. For this reason, the course setup is extremely easy to speed along pace of play. This makes virtually every statistic irrelevant as it relates to certain players having edges over other players. In other words, this is a birdie-fest tournament where each player has one objective. Hit it as close as possible, and make as many putts as possible. Here are the key factors we will be looking for in our card this week before we get to the picks:
- Birdie Percentage
- Strokes gained putting over the last three months
- Strokes gained approach over the last three months
THE BETTING CARD
Winners Without Scottie Scheffler Market
- Si Woo Kim (28/1) .125 units to win 3.25 units: I was pleased with how he hit it last week and all four wins have came on the greens surface he will see this week. He can’t miss everything two weeks in a row, can he?
- Russell Henley (18/1) .175 units to win 3.15 units: Just gaudy approach numbers the last six months. If he keeps hitting it this close he will win again soon.
- Alex Noren (45/1) .1 units to win 4.5 units: One of the hottest players coming into the season and can make a lot of birdies.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (80/1) .075 units to win 6 units: Great form to end the season and great results at this tournament in the past. Way too high of a price to not grab.
- Wyndham Clark (75/1) .075 units to win 5.62 units: Who knows what we will get from him this week, but remember when he shot 61 at Pebble Beach? I sure do, and it can come again at anytime.
- Max Greyserman (80/1) .075 units to win 6 units: Another very inconsistent player than can go super low at anytime. In the last two events he has finished dead last and then second, only losing by a shot.
- Rasmus Hojgaard (55/1) .1 units to win 5.5 units: Number grab for one of, if not the best, birdie maker on the DP Tour last season.
- Michael Kim (100/1) .075 units to win 7.5 units: Way too high of a price for someone who can make a lot of birdies, is from the west coast, and has prior success at this event.
- Lee Hodges (130/1) .06 units to win 7.8 units: Coming off a top 5 finish and his only win on tour he went 24 deep. He can take it low again.
- Jacob Bridgeman (150/1) .06 units to win 9 units: Way too high of a price for another volume birdie maker coming off a great tournament in Hawaii.
- Andrew Novak (150/1) .055 units to win 8.25 units: This guy contended a lot last season. He’s been off for a while and the fall form wasn’t great, but he was half this number with Scottie Scheffler in the mix not that long ago.
TOP 10 FINISH MARKET
- Tom Hoge (17/1): .1 units to win 1.7 units
- Eric Cole (16/1): .1 units to win 1.6 units
- Patton Kizzire (22/1): .1 units to win 2.2 units
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju (30/1): .1 unit to win 3 units
- Alejandro Tosti (22.5/1): .1 unit to win 2.25 units