By J.T. CHADWELL
RECORD
Last week: 3-3, won Sicko Special
Overall: 3-24 (6-2 Sicko Specials)
RECAP
Another 3-3 week, and while that record felt like what it should’ve been, how we got there was far from that. Starting with the early game, BYU and Utah had nothing but fireworks in the first half, and when BYU had the ball inside the Utah red zone and 34 points had already been scored, the under looked completely dead. However, BYU was unable to get points before the first half ended, did not score the entire second half, and the final total came in at 48, a point and a half clear to the under. Meanwhile, Missouri and Texas were playing a very close game that Missouri really held the edge on most of the way. Missouri and 3.5 points was the correct side of that bet all afternoon, unfortunately some very questionable review calls really swung the momentum in Texas’ favor and the Longhorns got the cover late. Speaking of momentum swings, the momentum in Columbus, Ohio has flipped 180 degrees and it’s looking more and more likely that Ohio State will miss the playoff. Speaking of, I think four teams all but clinched their spot in the College Football Playoff this weekend, barring a colossal collapse: Alabama, Georgia, UCLA, and Notre Dame. Speaking of a colossal collapse, we are still up 14 units on the season, so let’s avoid our own meltdown and get back to our winning ways this week.
Here are the picks for week 11, with all times Eastern:
Houston @ Colorado OVER 50.5 (Friday, 10:15 PM, ESPN)
We start this week in a familiar spot, with a Houston total. This line opened at 47.5 and has been on the move immediately. The Cougars have really had a wheelhouse this season when it comes to their totals, and only two of their games this season have gone below this number. One of those games was against Utah, a game that saw multiple drives end in the red zone with no points scored. Colorado’s offense has picked up later in the season, and prior to last week they scored 24 points in three games in a row, one of which was against that good Utah defense. The Buffaloes only scored 10 last week against Arizona State, but still threw for nearly 250 yards. Houston’s pass defense is it’s main weakness, so if the Cougars are up in the second half, I think Colorado can move the ball and still score some points. Finally, Houston is 11-1 to the over as an away favorite over the last five years.
Nebraska @ Rutgers (Team Total OVER 20.5) (12:30, Big Ten Network)
Rutgers is at home again! As automatic as Rutgers game overs have been at home, I still cannot trust this Nebraska team to do anything right now. The Cornhuskers are in a free fall and haven’t scored 20 since the first week of October. Therefore, we pivot to Rutgers team total points. Rutgers is 6-for 9-to this number for the season, and the only three teams that they were unable to reach 21 against were Indiana, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Those are three of the top defenses in the Big Ten, and two of those were away games. Nebraska is favored by 13.5 in this game, so I expect the Huskers to have a lead with Rutgers throwing the ball a lot against a mediocre Nebraska pass defense.
Kansas @ West Virginia (-2.5) (5:30, ESPNU)
On to the Big 12 where seemingly no defense is played in most of the games throughout the conference each week, and this one is probably no different. Kansas really has nothing impressive to its resume this season, and this will be the Jayhawks’ fourth away game in six weeks. Over the last five seasons, KU is 12-19 against the spread on the road. Couple that with this season’s run defense (barely top 100 nationally) going on the road to try and stop a highly ranked run offense of the Mountaineers and this is a really tough matchup for Kansas. I really like how West Virginia has fought as the season has gone on, and the Mountaineers have rattled off three impressive games in a row. If they show that kind of effort for a fourth straight they will take down the Jayhawks on Saturday.
USC (Team Total UNDER 21.5) @ Indiana (3:30, CBS/Paramount+)
Leaning on some common sense here. Indiana’s defense is really good, and one of the best in the nation. So far this season, the Hoosiers have given up more than 21 points one time, in a road game against Northwestern where the Wildcats score 16 points in the fourth quarter. That’s really one bad quarter of defense all year for this team. USC has played the majority of its games at home this season, and the last time they went on the road? The Trojans got bullied by Wisconsin and only scored seven points. I think Indiana’s defense might be better, so 4 scores seems too tall a task to accomplish on the road in 40 degree temperatures for a team from Southern California.
Michigan (+11.5) @ Oregon (3:30, FS1)
Big time inflated line here. Who in their right mind would take Michigan after getting beat at home against Michigan State?! And, especially after Oregon just dismantled Ohio State. In college football, outliers happen, and Michigan is by no means anything special this season, but Kyle Whittingham has traditionally been a very good coach, even when his teams are not playing the best. Michigan has lost four games this season, but in those four losses the Wolverines never gave up more than 20 points. They do that for a fifth time, all they need is a touchdown and a field goal. I’ll take my chances.
Sicko Special of the Week
Nevada (-6.5) @ Northern Illinois (3:30, MW+)
There was a time when Northern Illinois was a highly respected mid-major opponent in the landscape of college football. 2026 is not one of those years, and the last five years have been very unkind to the Huskies when playing in front of their home crowd. Northern Illinois is 7-24-2 against the spread in that timeframe. Now we get to lay less than a full touchdown (and extra point) and fade a Husky team that has lost every FBS game it have played by that margin. It’s a full blown fade of arguably the worst team this season in FBS, but if we need to make a case for Nevada, how about this? A 21-13 record against the spread on the road over the last five years.
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