By J.T. CHADWELL
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The CAROLINA HURRICANES (+240) enter the playoffs as the number 1 seed and the small favorite over the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (+250). There really wasn’t much to differentiate between the two in the regular season. Carolina had a goal differential of +59 and Tampa +56. The Lightning is very top heavy on the attacking side, but lacks the defensive prowess of Carolina. Should the two teams match up, Carolina should probably have the edge. The Hurricanes, however, get the short end of on the draw, as they will play host to the OTTAWA SENATORS (+650). Ottawa, through a season of ups and downs both on the ice and off the ice, come into the playoffs quite hot. Its top line is full of fire power, and other lines filled with veteran players which could pose a tough matchup for Carolina. I could see the Ottawa-Carolina series going six or seven games, with Ottawa having a chance to pull off the upset. Should Ottawa move past Carolina, I think the Senators stand a fair chance at making it to the Stanley Cup.
Tampa will play host to the MONTREAL CANADIENS (+1400). The Canadiens have built a nice core around young phenom Cole Caufield, and I think they could really give Tampa some problems in this series. Montreal enters the playoffs winning seven out of its last 10, and post a stout record of 24-9-8 on the road this year. Montreal split the season series with Tampa 2-2, with both wins coming in the last month for the Canadiens.
BONUS PICK: Montreal (+205) to win the series over Tampa: I like this price for Montreal in what seems to be a fairly even matchup. Most of the pricing is coming from the notion that Tampa plays above their means in the playoffs. I think if Montreal can steal one of the first two games in Tampa, the Habs can win the series, and if there is still uncertainty in the play, it will present a nice potential for a hedge to at least guarantee some profit.
The third series in the Eastern Conference sees the BUFFALO SABRES (+600) get the fortunate part of the draw against the BOSTON BRUINS (+1900). Boston appears to be overmatched in this series, and its 16-16 record on the road this season gives no confidence that the Bruins can advance to the Stanley Cup, much less out of the first round. Buffalo was quite the upstart team this season, massively outperforming year beginning projections. The youth on the attacking side has stepped up and the defense is also stout with Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin footing most of the time on ice.
Finally we come to the last team to enter the playoffs, the PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (+2200). The Flyers have a nice young core lacking playoff experience, and they also have the lowest goal differential of any team in the Eastern Conference. They draw our pick to win the Eastern Conference and make it to the Stanley Cup…
THE PICK: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (+1000) TO WIN THE EASTERN CONFERENCE
Three reasons to like Pittsburgh here. One, the Eastern Conference is wide open. There is not an overwhelming favorite, so this side of the bracket is going to be decided by who gets hot and who is playing well at the right time. Cue the second reason we like Pittsburgh here, their experience. Pittsburgh has lots of experience at every level on the ice. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are the veteran attackers, with Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson on defense, and Stuart Skinner in goal. Between the five players, they have accumulated 84 years of service in the NHL. That’s a lot of reps. Finally, Pittsburgh only had 25 regular time losses this season, which was seventh best in the league. The Penguins lost a lot of overtime points in the 3 on 3 overtime rule. Playoff hockey is always five vs. five and that’s where the Penguins excel.
WESTERN CONFERENCE BETTING PREVIEW
The COLORADO AVALANCHE (+165) come in as the heavy favorite, and why not? The Avs boast the league’s leading goal scorer in Nathan MacKinnon who pairs with Martin Necas and Cale Makar to make a formidable power play unit. But, Makar’s health as been spotty lately and the +165 price is too low to risk him being fully healthy, even though they should have no problems advancing past the LOS ANGELES KINGS (+2200). Los Angeles has really struggled putting points on the scoreboard most of the season, and a blockbuster trade midseason to add Artemi Panarin hasn’t really paid dividends. The Kings limp into the playoffs on the heel of a miserable 3-1 defeat in Calgary, a game the Kings needed to win to potentially avoid playing Colorado in the first round. No chance they reach the Stanley Cup.
Speaking of not having much of a chance to make the Stanley Cup, the UTAH MAMMOTH (+1500) can be placed in that category as well, but a much different feel for the franchise, which is in just its second season of existence. Utah has seemingly built the start of a nice team with 40 goal scorer Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller at his side. There is still more building to do, but a nice season to make the playoffs this year. I think they stand a small chance at knocking off the LAS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS (+450). I think this team just continues to be overvalued. The Knights only amassed 93 points this season, and had to win their last game of the season to grab the number 1 seed in the division. They’ve been fairly healthy most the season, unlike many of the other teams in their division. The offseason acquisition of Mitchell Marner was supposed to send this team into the next tier, but the Golden Knights haven’t exceeded expectations. BONUS PICK: UTAH MAMMOTH TO BEAT LAS VEGAS (+155).
The series between the DALLAS STARS (+500) and the MINNESOTA WILD (+850) will, in my opinion, be the best of the first round. Great players on both teams, and both had very good regular seasons. Dallas has a nice mix of young players and veterans, while Minnesota’s top lines are in their prime and can score a lot of goals. This should be a heavy hitting series with both teams winning a couple games, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see either team advance here. I would also give either one of these teams a fighting chance in the next round against Colorado.
The ANAHEIM DUCKS (+3000) this season were every NHL bettor’s dream. The Ducks have tons of offensive firepower, but can’t stop a puck from reaching the back of their net to save their life. That isn’t a recipe for success against a team that has made back to back Western Conference finals, and a team we are picking to make it a third.
THE PICK: EDMONTON OILERS TO WIN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE (+550)
This Edmonton run reminds me quite a bit of the Chiefs’ run to the Super Bowl when they got trounced by the Eagles. When you have made two conference finals in a row, the regular season becomes more of a formality. That seems to be the case for the Oilers who have gone through the motions during the season, while fighting many injuries as well. Good news, the whole team is back healthy, and the younger players got lots of valuable playing time while doing so. Matthew Savoie and Jack Roslovic were both 20 goal scorers this season. Edmonton will enter the post season with a lot of firepower back to health and draw a very nice first round matchup with the Ducks, before getting the winner of Las Vegas and Utah, two teams they can knock off as well.