By J.T. CHADWELL
Welcome to a Thanksgiving Special Edition of the Chadwell Cheat Sheet. This week we will feature some games to watch out for during the Thanksgiving and Black Friday holidays, separate from our usual weekend betting outlook. We didn’t have much luck on player props earlier this month, but with the backbone of Thanksgiving sports being the NFL, it’s time for a “second helping.” Each NFL game includes some player props to watch for, as specific prop lines will not be available until closer to game time.
NFL
Detroit (-2.5) vs. Green Bay
The stars have seemingly aligned in this spot for Detroit. With Green Bay coming off an easy win against Minnesota, it looks on the surface like Green Bay might have things back on track after the back-to-back losses earlier in November. Meanwhile, the Vikings offense is a mess right now and might be the worst in the league. Now Green Bay must travel to Detroit to take on one of the best. It’s very possible Detroit got caught looking ahead to this spot last week after mustering up an impressive comeback win against the Giants. I just think Detroit overall is better than Green Bay at this point in the season and only having to lay less than a field goal makes Detroit the pick.
Player Props to watch out for:
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 4.5 Receptions – Gibbs had 11 catches last game. Against Green Bay earlier this season, he had 10. The Lions will look to keep feeding maybe the best skill player in the league the ball.
- Jordan Love UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts – Detroit does a pretty good job of managing time of possession. With Love’s favorite receivers injured, the Green Bay QB has a lack of weapons in the passing game. If it’s a close game on the road, I look for Green Bay to lean on the running game.
Kansas City @ Dallas UNDER 52.5
Don’t look now, but the Cowboys might be making a late playoff push jump-started by a trade that did not really receive a ton of attention. Two weeks ago, Dallas traded for DT Quinnen Williams and its run defense has seemingly taken a huge step forward. It’s only a small sample size, but the Cowboys held Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley to a combined 16 carries for 29 yards. By contrast, the three games prior to Williams’ arrival saw JK Dobbins go for 111, Emari Demercado for 79, and the Commanders’ stable of backs combine for 136 yards. Now here comes the Kansas City offense, which just had veteran RB Kareem Hunt amass 30 carries. Kansas City seems to be leaning a little more on the run as the Chiefs don’t hit near as many plays down the field any more. Also, Kansas City has only had three games all season go over this number.
Player Props to watch out for:
- George Pickens OVER Longest Reception (26.5 yards) – Chiefs have given up pass plays of 25+ yards to seven different receivers over the last three games against teams that don’t necessarily throw the ball down the field.
- Brandon Aubrey OVER 1.5 Field Goals – Good offense vs. good defense typically ends in a lot of field goal attempts and Aubrey just doesn’t miss.
- Kareem Hunt UNDER 33.5 Rushing yards – See write up above.
2 Leg Parlay: Baltimore OVER 23.5 team total / Chicago UNDER 21.5 team total
Baltimore gets to spend Thanksgiving at home against a Cincinnati defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed right now. They also get major class relief after two straight against above average defenses. Cincinnati has been the worst defensive team in the league and this should be a spot the Ravens look to get on track. Chicago on the other hand has been hot, but this seems like a lot of points to get against a tough Eagles defense that will be highly motivated this week after the second half showing against the Cowboys. The Lions and Packers didn’t combine to get 21 on them so let’s look for the Philly ‘D’ to bounce back at home.
Props to watch out for:
- Saquon Barkley OVER 99.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards – Last week Saquon had one of his worst weeks with the Eagles with only 22 rushing yards and a lost fumble. This game could be pivotal for home field advantage in the playoff race, so I fully expect Philly to get back to what they do well here and feed Saquon the ball.
- DJ Moore UNDER 3.5 Receptions – Philly has done a great job of limiting top WR options for their opponents. Cee Dee Lamb ended the last contest with only four catches, Amon-Ra St. Brown was limited to two catches, Romeo Doubs had only one catch, and WanDale Robinson only three catches. 4 straight number 1 WR options with less than 5 catches.
- Mark Andrews OVER 3.5 Receptions/Yards – Bengals just gave up 7 catches for 115 yards to Hunter Henry, 4 catches for 67 yards to Darnell Washington, and 6 catches for 118 yards to Colston Loveland. Add in that Andrews only needs 4 catches to become the Ravens all time leader in receptions? In a primetime game on Thanksgiving? This would be the top pick of the week.
COLLEGE
Indiana (-27.5) @ Purdue
Welcome to rivalry weekend in college football, and here we visit the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. They might as well go ahead and send the bucket to Bloomington. Purdue has one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten, if not the worst. Purdue has given up 30 or more points five times this year and exactly 27 twice. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is currently the -115 favorite to win the Heisman trophy, but Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is closing hard on him. Indiana can score at will on Purdue and I fully expect the Hoosiers to give every effort imaginable to boost Mendoza’s Heisman campaign, which could all come crashing down in the Big Ten title game against Ohio State. I am looking for Indiana to score 50 here and Purdue isn’t scoring 20. Give me Indiana big in this one.
Texas A&M @ Texas UNDER 52.5
When this total opened at 52.5, I had to do a double take. Texas A&M on the road has scored 38 at Missouri, 45 at Arkansas, 49 at LSU, and 41 at Notre Dame. Texas in its last four has given up 37 points to Arkansas, 35 to Georgia, 38 to Mississippi State, and 31 to Vanderbilt. If there is anything I have learned in 20 years of betting sports, it’s that when a line seems too good to be true, it generally is too good to actually be true. The over seems like the obvious play, so let’s go against the grain and take the under here.