By BILLY DIXON
I officially give up trying to figure out this year’s Tennessee baseball team.
As the old saying goes: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
I won’t fall into the trap of trying to read too much into Sunday’s much improved performance against Kentucky in game three of the series. We saw that before at Vanderbilt and in the home series against Ole Miss.
Quite frankly, the Vols were putrid in Friday and Saturday’s games.
It’s the same story again and again. One week after earning Southeastern Conference Pitcher of the Week honors, Tegan Kuhns was smashed by Wildcat hitters. The same thing happened to Ethan Blanco Saturday. But, after a disastrous game against Alabama last week where he allowed four hits, five runs, walked four, and hit two in just 2 1-3 innings, Landon Mack was spectacular against Kentucky, tossing six innings and allowing just one run.
Go figure.
Then there’s freshman Cam Appenzeller. After absolutely dominating opponents for most of the season, the last three weeks have been the complete opposite. Combined, he allowed 14 runs on 14 hits and six free bases in just 6 1-3 innings. In his previous five SEC outings, he allowed only two total runs, 12 hits, and two walks in 23 1-3 innings with 27 strikeouts.
Simply baffling.
At the plate, however, Tennessee’s woes are easy to pinpoint. It’s the same problem over and over. Vols batters appear to want to be heroes instead of team players. Time after time after time, they are coming out of their shoes, swinging for the fences, and trying to pull everything. This results in lazy fly balls and weak groundouts.
Friday night in Lexington, the Vols had ZERO hits to the opposite field. Saturday, they had one – a Trent Grindlinger double down the right field line.
ONE opposite field hit in two games. They went down in order 10 times in those games.
Worse, this was not against shutdown pitching. After an SEC season opening sweep against Alabama, the Wildcats had lost every conference series. Yet they shut the Vols down at the plate and sprayed the ball all over the field while scoring 30 runs.
Yes, Tennessee bats bounced back in Sunday’s finale, plating 10 runs on 13 hits. That included back-to-back opposite field home runs in the second inning by Reece Chapman and Levi Clark. In fact, six of the 10 runs came directly from taking pitches the other way.
It was the exact same thing at Vandy and against Ole Miss.
I’m not falling for it this time. Until they show me a willingness to consistently take what the defense (and pitching) is giving them, I’m not convinced these Vols have what it takes to make the postseason, much less advance.
Part of the blame falls squarely on first year coach Josh Elander. Following Saturday’s run-rule debacle, he called out his team’s heart before walking it back. He was right to begin with, though.
I said a couple weeks ago that no one on this team was performing at such a level that they were above being benched. When the same batters make the same mistakes over and over yet continually get put in the lineup, it has to fall on the coach.
Worse, Elander committed a baseball cardinal sin this weekend. Everyone knows you don’t mess with success. Tennessee had won 10 of their last 13 and had things moving in the right direction. The last thing you do is tinker with the lineup. Inexplicably, he switched up the pitching rotation, moving Kuhns from game two to game one, Blanco from game three to game two, and Mack from game one to game three. He nearly singlehandedly blew the Vols’ lone win by staying with a clearly ineffective Appenzeller for far too long, allowing the freshman to allow a 6-1 lead to slip to 6-5 in one inning before pulling him. Bo Rhudy came in and was somewhat successful in his stint, ending the troublesome 7th and allowing just one run in the eighth before hitting a wall in the ninth. Despite having lefty closer Brandon Arvidson fresh, Elander allowed the righty Rhudy to face – and ultimately give up a two-run home run to a lefty batter cutting a hard fought 10-6 advantage to a white knuckle 10-9 margin before finally coming with Arvidson.
Additionally, a batting order that was starting to work was turned on its head.
It might seem like a small thing, but all baseball people know you don’t mess with a winning streak. Elander knows better.
It’s Not as Bad as it Seems
Yes, Elander deserves to be called out for some questionable decisions. But before we start throwing dirt on his grave, let’s consider some important facts.
If you watched the games this weekend – or Tuesday night’s contest versus Presbyterian – you might have heard the announcers mention that Elander is the first first-year coach to win 30 games at Tennessee. Tony Vitello only managed a 29-27 record his first year in 2018.
Elander had much more to work with than Vitello did when he took the job, but you can’t dismiss a 32-win season as any kind of failure. Furthermore, the Vols still have at least 8 games to go to add to that total.
Prior to Vitello, Tennessee had not managed a 32-win season since going 34-25 in Rod Delmonico’s final year, 2007.
It’s easy to be spoiled by success, but don’t take it for granted.
It’s also worth noting that all the other SEC powerhouse schools have experienced down years within recent years.
Arkansas went 26-29 in 2016 and currently sits with the same 32-17 record as the Vols.
LSU has had 5 sub-40 win seasons since 2007 – including a 29-26 year.
Mississippi State has had 6 sub-30 win seasons in that span, including going 26-30 and 27-26 in the two years follwing their 2021 National Championship run.
The exact same thing happened to Ole Miss, going 25-29 and 27-29 following its 2022 national title.
As frustrating as it can be, being in the postseason picture with a first-year coach just two years after a national title is a proven accomplishment.
Mid-Week Streak
The Vols continued their midweek dominance on Tuesday night, taking down Presbyterian 8-1, running their Tuesday night mark to 13-0 for the season. They go for perfection next Tuesday when Belmont comes to town.
Tennessee smashed another four home runs in the game, tying them for tenth in the country with 91. I was surprised when my research showed this team is hitting home runs and a higher clip than last year. The 2025 Vols hit 112 dingers in 65 games – 1.72 per game vs. 1.85 this year. They need just nine more in a minimum of eight remaining games to become the first team ever to hit 100 long balls in five straight years.
Troublesome Texas
If the Vols (32-17, 11-13) can manage just one win in each of the last two SEC weekends, that will give them the targeted 13-17 conference record. Barring Cinderella upsets in conference tournaments, that should be enough to get them an NCAA Regional invite. Especially if they can tack on a win or two in the SEC tournament.
Two things to be wary of that could get in the way of that. Vanderbilt – which swept the Vols — lies just one game back of Tennessee in the standings. LSU sits two games back. You do NOT want to go into Selection Sunday leaving your fate to the committee when LSU might be in the picture for the final spot. Not only is it name value, but the Tigers took two of three from the Vols and are defending national champs.
Vandy has a hapless Missouri and nearly as bad South Carolina remaining.
LSU has a tougher road with No. 5 Georgia and No. 21 Florida still to go.
If the regular season ended today, Tennessee and Vandy would square off in the first round of the SEC tournament – a game that could actually determine the final team to get in a regional.
Still, Tennessee controls its own fate and, believe it or not, can earn regional hosting honors, but considering the schedule to come, their sights would be best set on getting the two or three wins necessary to just make a regional.
This weekend, a very formidable Texas stands in the way. Friday’s game at Lindsey Nelson Stadium starts at 6:30, first pitch Saturday is set for 6 p.m., and Sunday’s series finale begins at noon. Friday and Saturday’s games can be streamed on SEC Network+. Sunday’s contest will be on ESPN2.
The Longhorns (36-10, 15-8) are ranked No. 4 this week and are an undeniably quality team. They’ve won nine of their last 12, but some of those wins have not come easy. They needed an eighth-inning grand slam to come from behind and beat Texas-San Antonio Tuesday. Last Tuesday, it took a two-out, 3-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to beat Sam Houston 15-14. While those are in unpredictable midweek games, nine of the Longhorns’ SEC wins have been by two runs or less.
In short, Texas is beatable, but that’s going to mean finding a way of getting to one of the best pitching staffs in the country. Texas is second in the SEC with a 3.83 ERA. They have three excellent starters and a shutdown closer.
Dylan Volantis leads the way with a 7-0 record and a miniscule 1.87 ERA. He’s struck out 92 batters in 62 innings and allowed just one home run. His last three outings have been stellar. He went six innings in all three games against Mississippi State, Vandy, and Bama, allowing a total of 11 hits in the 18 innings, three runs, and struck out 35.
Ruger Riojas will follow with his 5-2 record and 3.71 ERA. He strikes out more batters than Volantis with 96 Ks in 60 innings.
Then comes Luke Harrison who sports a 5-2 record and 4.35 ERA. He also strikes out more than one batter per inning.
The Vols MUST work these pitchers early in the game and drive up the pitch count. If the Longhorns get into the late innings with a lead, Sam Cozart is there to close things down. Cozart has seven saves, a 1.70 ERA, and has allowed only 16 hits in 42 innings pitched with 60 strikeouts.
Texas can also hit the ball with a .296 team average compared to Tennessee’s .276.
While well behind the Vols in home runs, the Longhorns have an impressive trio of power hitters. Aiden Robbins leads the way with 18 home runs to go with a lofty .359 average. Carson Tinney has parked 17 balls and Casey Borba 12.
All that does not take into consideration super freshman Anthony Pack, Jr., who is hitting .346 with 15 doubles and 17 stolen bases.