By J.T. CHADWELL
RECORD
Last week: 4-2 (Won Sicko Special)
Overall: 22-10 (3-0 Sicko Special)
RECAP
Going 6-0 for a second straight week was never going to happen, but very pleased with a 4-2 week that runs our yearly total now to 22-10 (19-10 and 3-0 in the SICKO Special). We lost an early one Saturday with Notre Dame failing to cover the 20.5 at North Carolina. This team has to get a little more serious to really be considered a true contender for the national title. Too many defensive lapses and silly turnovers against some very soft competition so far early in the season for the Fighting Irish. To me, they are not a top 5 team at the moment. Speaking of top 5 teams, Miami currently deserves a spot in that class as they put a beat down on Clemson. Miami has NFL athletes at just about every position on the field, paired with a smart, athletic quarterback. Miami was -135 to begin the season to win the ACC, and I thought that price was way too high. I was completely wrong and it looks like Miami will storm their way through the Atlantic Coast Conference and into the CFB Playoff at the end of the season where they will be a major contender to make it back to the title game they lost last year. Give me Texas, Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama to round out that top 5. And how about that, we have already had two of those teams play each other this year, and now I am about to tell you what’s going to happen when the other two play each other in Tuscaloosa this week…
All times Eastern.
Alabama (Moneyline -110) vs. Georgia (7:30 PM, ABC)
Don’t overthink this one. Kirby Smart is 1-4 in his career against Alabama, and Georgia’s record against Alabama dating back before Smart was the coach is no good as well. Alabama has won 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two. Interestingly enough, Alabama has only played Georgia two times in Tuscaloosa, but both times the Tide came out victorious and scored 41 points in each game. I still fancy Georgia’s chances more than Alabama’s to contend for a National Championship, but this has always been a terrible matchup for the Bulldogs regardless of where the game is played, and Alabama has the best home field advantage in the SEC.
North Carolina (Team Total UNDER 21.5) @ Pittsburgh (Noon, ESPN)
I do like Pitt in this game, I am just not sure I can fully trust the Panthers to cover the 3.5 as they will be trotting a new quarterback out for the rest of the season. This Pitt team is a little different than Panther teams of the past. Pat Narduzzi finally has a defense to lean on. I think this line is a little inflated from both sides based on some outlier results last week. North Carolina hung 26 on Notre Dame, but 14 of those came off a kick return and a garbage time touchdown when the Irish had stopped defending. Pittsburgh was the opposite. Virginia Tech hung 14 quick points on the Panthers, before Pitt dug its heels in and defended well enough to get the victory in Blacksburg. I think Pitt will probably lean on the run game a little more with a new quarterback and trust their defense to get them to 6-0.
Wake Forest @ NC State (+4.5) (Noon, CW)
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Back to back weeks we get NC State (who ran its home underdog record against the spread to 11-2 since 2020 last week) as a home underdog. Like the Pitt/UNC game, I think we get a little bit of an inflated line here thanks to Wake Forest dismantling Stanford at home last week. Wake Forest is massively improved, and is a quality team. But like last week for NC State, this feels like a one-possession game either way and the fact we get 4.5 covers a lot of one-possession potential scorelines.
Houston @ Kansas State (OVER 54.5) (3:30, FOX)
Our data play of the week lands in the Big 12. First data point: the public and the sharps thought this one opened too low. The total opened early at 51.5 and has already jumped to 54.5 and might not be done moving. Next, it’s a great spot situationally for both teams. Since 2020, Kansas State is 22-18-1 to the over at home, while Houston is 22-13 on the road to the over. Finally, it looks like a good matchup for both offenses on paper. Houston brings a good run game to Manhattan, and Kansas State is far from elite at stopping the run. Meanwhile, Kansas State has been above average throwing the football, while Houston has been extremely bad at stopping it.
Illinois (Moneyline) @ Michigan State (3:30, FS1)
OK, let’s move away from these teams that excel at home and find some teams that are good on the road. Betting a team to win after a loss to a team like Purdue is quite a risky proposition, but like a few other lines this week, I just think this is a tad bit of an overreaction, and Illinois is just the better team here. The icing on the cake is the Illini record against the spread on the road. Since 2020, they have been a top 10 team covering at 63% (19-11) on the road. On top of that, Illinois catches Michigan State in a good spot situationally, as MSU is equally as bad at home. The Spartans are 13-24-3 in that same time frame. Couple that with the fact Michigan State’s season is starting to derail after a promising start. Back to back blowout losses to two middle of the road Big Ten teams has Michigan State searching for answers. Let’s back the better team in the better spot.
Sicko Special of the Week
Toledo (-20.5) vs. Buffalo (3:30, ESPN+)
At surface level, people will look at this game and think Buffalo is getting too many points. A traditionally respected program that just lost by only three to a team that should’ve beat Michigan earlier in the season. I’m here to tell you this Buffalo team is bad, and Toledo can score points. Toledo has averaged 48 points per game over its last four and this might be the worst defense they have played yet. Situationally, this isn’t the best spot for Buffalo either. Buffalo is 9-13-1 against the spread as a road underdog since 2020. Let’s look for the Rockets to go up and down the field all day against this terrible Bulls defense.