By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Another Sunday and yet another disappointing round from one of our tips. Wyndham Clark played his way into contention on Sunday before fading fast on the front nine. This tip sheet on Sundays is starting to feel a bit like Ludvig Aberg on Sundays which is ironic, because he is the player that started this cold streak we are on when he blew a three-shot lead on Sunday at Sawgrass when he ballooned his three-wood at No. 11 into the pond and never recovered. It was Bud Cauley who ended up holding the trophy at the end, and if you have been following golf for a while, you know how awesome it was to see him win. If you don’t know Bud’s story, it is well worth your time to look him up and everything he endured just to be physically able to play golf again, much less win a national event on the PGA Tour. It was awesome to see it come full circle for Bud, and hopefully there is more to come for his story. While Clark didn’t get it done for us this week, he will definitely get another chance from me next week as we head to the third major of the season.
PAST WINNERS, ODDS, AND TRENDS
2025, JJ Spaun (+10000) – Made eight cuts with two runner-up finishes in his 10 prior events.
2024, Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) – Had six top-10 finishes on the LIV Tour in his nine prior events.
2023, Wyndham Clark (+6600) – Made seven cuts with four top-10 finishes, including a win, in eight events prior.
2022, Matt Fitzpatrick (+2700) – In the 12 events coming in, he made nine cuts with seven top-10 finishes.
2021, Jon Rahm (+1000) – Made eight cuts with six top-10s in the nine events prior.
U.S. Open
This week we head south (barely), to Shinnecock Hills in the Hamptons of New York for the 126th version of the United States Open. This will be the third time this century that Shinnecock has hosted the US Open. The 2004 contest saw Retief Goosen victorious, and the 2018 version saw Brooks Koepka hoist the trophy. Koepka was a fourth-round withdrawal from the Canadian Open last Sunday with a potential right arm injury that does not sound promising for the five-time major winner. Koepka currently sits at 27-1, but he will be a hard pass this week due to the uncertainty of the injury, if he even makes it into the field. As normal, and rightfully so, Scottie Scheffler sits atop the odds board this week at a price of +460. This is the first week in multiple years that I feel okay playing against Scheffler into the outright market that includes him. While his results this season are nothing short of incredible, and any golfer would kill for those results, he just isn’t quite at the level he was two years ago. That can change in a heartbeat with someone of his skill, and it might this week given the added motivation that he can complete the Grand Slam of Golf with a victory. However, he has seen a cooled off putter the last eight weeks, only gaining 1+ stroke per round in two of the last eight events. His strokes gained approach has also dipped in four straight events. Finally, the U.S. Open has never really been Scottie’s best major. Granted he has still finished in the top 10 in four of the last five U.S. Opens, none of those top 10s were events where he was in close contention at the end.
THE BETTING CARD
- Rory McIlroy (+1200 FANDUEL), .35 UNITS TO WIN 4.2 UNITS – There is and always has been a sweet spot for Rory in outright markets. The general rule of thumb is to take him when you can get double digits, so I am very happy with a 12/1 price. Yes, Rory missed the cut here in 2018 — and he was a high quality player then as well — but he is at the point in his career that is all about the majors, and I fully expect Rory to play well this week. He is on record for specifically naming Shinnecock as a place he wants to win a major. We know he has been coming to practice here for a while and I think he will be completely dialed in this week. I almost forgot to mention, he has finished second in this event two of the last three years.
- XANDER SCHAUFFELE (+2200 FANDUEL) .2 UNITS TO WIN 4.4 UNITS – Five years ago I would’ve said that the U.S. Open would be where Xander got his first major. Five years later he has two majors and no U.S. Open trophies. This guy loves the U.S. Open setups and it shows in his performances in this event. He has NEVER finished outside the top 15 in this event, and was tied for fifth in his first try back in 2017. He tied for sixth on this same golf course back in 2018. He is performing at a very high level off the tee right now (gaining four strokes per tournament off the tee), and if he does the same this week it will help him keep the high numbers off the scorecard and a very good chance to win.
- CHRIS GOTTERUP (+4500 BETMGM) .125 UNITS TO WIN 5.62 UNITS– This championship looks built for Gotterup to win and this is definitely his best chance to win one to this point in his career. He has already won twice this season and comes to Shinnecock gaining an average of nearly eight strokes per tournament in putting/approach combined in his last three events. Gotterup’s best skill is with the driver, so if he can pair the driver with those putting and approach stats he will be in contention on Sunday.
- TYRELL HATTON (+4600 DRAFTKINGS) .15 UNITS TO WIN 6.9 UNITS – I think the books are sleeping a bit on Hatton here. While Hatton has never won a major, his record in majors is quite staggering: four top 20 finishes in his last six, including a tie for fourth in last year’s U.S. Open, in which he briefly led late on Sunday. Hatton has elevated his game since, and has seven worldwide top five finishes since September. Better yet he is coming off a win on the LIV Tour in his most recent start, in which he essentially led start to finish.
- WYNDHAM CLARK (+5000 CAESARS) .125 UNITS TO WIN 6.25 UNITS– I was a little on the fence on Clark given his performances late in the last two tournaments, but this price on Caesars was too good to pass up. Regardless of the last two events, Clark is playing some fantastic golf, and what was the result last time he came to this championship playing some fantastic golf? He outdueled Rory McIlory and Rickie Fowler at LA Country Club on a Sunday to hoist the trophy. Clark has finished tied for 21st or better in six of his last seven and has spent the high majority of the last three tournaments in the top five.
- KRISTOFFER REITAN (+11500 DRAFTKINGS) .05 UNITS TO WIN 5.75 UNITS – As one of the first (if not the first) on the Reitan bandwagon, I am betting this guy in every major as long as he stays above 50/1. He is a big time player that plays his best golf on the weekends. His ability to not only put himself in position to win, but finish the job with birdies is incredible. He shot 64-69 at Quail Hollow — no easy golf course by any means — to win the Truist Championship earlier this year. Shinnecock is a golf course that when you play your best golf, 65 is gettable while everyone else shoots 72-73. If Reitan does it this week, he will contend.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOTS
- GARY WOODLAND 120/1
- JACKSON KOIVUN 150/1
- JOHNNY KEEFER 380/1
- BILLY HORSCHEL 750/1
- CALEB SURRATT 1250/1
What is a unit, anyway? Check out our explanation, part of five key sports betting terms.
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