By J.T. CHADWELL
XBOX Bowl: Missouri State vs Arkansas State OVER 56.5 (Thursday, 9 p.m., ESPN2)
We start off the weekend in Texas with two offenses that have been really improving at the season’s end. The spread for this game favors Arkansas State by only a point, so I think we can expect a back-and-forth game here. For the season, Missouri State averaged 0.34 points per play, however over the last three games, that number has jumped to 0.49. We have also seen both teams calling more pass plays over the last three as well. Both these teams finished in the top 45 nationally in pass yards per game and pass play percentage. Both teams ranked national outside the top 75 in pass yards allowed per game. The final key stat here? Arkansas State ranks third nationally in plays per game. I think we will see a lot of possessions and a lot of passing which usually leads to a lot of points.
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan UNDER 49.5 (Friday, 11 a.m., ESPN)
This is a sneaky good matchup that will probably be overlooked by many with it being played on a weekday morning. Each team won its conference championship, and it looks like a pretty even matchup on paper. The four points for Kennesaw State looks like an enticing play, but I am going to lean towards the under here. We get two top 40 teams in run play percentage, so the clock will be running a lot. On top of that, neither team really turns the ball over or takes the ball away very much. Moreover, both teams are outside the top 100 nationally in field goal conversion AND red zone TD conversion. If we can avoid the big plays, I like this game to go under.
2 Leg Parlay: NC State Team Total o26.5/James Madison Team Total u14.5 (+114)
Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs North Carolina State (Friday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN)
Memphis saw a decent season slip through its hands, dropping four of the final five games of the season. The defense really slipped, as the Tigers gave up 28 or more points in each of those four defeats. NC State on the other hand saw its offense pick it up in the final few games of the season. Let’s look for the Wolfpack to be able to attack the Tigers’ 94th ranked pass defense and get some points on the board.
CFP First Round: James Madison at Oregon (Saturday, 7:30p.m., TNT)
The brutal reality of this “playoff” game is that James Madison is a 21.5 point underdog and in 927 NCAA Football games played until this point, only two times has an underdog of 21 or more points came out victorious (UCLA over Penn State and UAB over Memphis). James Madison has virtually no chance of winning here. The odds stack more against the Dukes when you look at their run play percentage. Oregon just has a different level of athlete on the other side of the ball than James Madison has played the rest of the season. Louisville held this team to 14 points and I see no reason why Oregon can’t do the same.
CFP First Round: Alabama @ Oklahoma (ML) (Friday, 8 p.m., ABC)
The Kalen DeBoer era just does not have the same feel to it as Nick Saban did. Alabama has been a mess of an offense for about the last month of the season. The Tide was lucky to move the ball across midfield against Georgia in the SEC Championship, and this Oklahoma defense is better than Georgia’s. Oklahoma also just beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa near the end of the regular season, which helped cinch an at-large playoff bid for the Sooners. While it is difficult to beat the same team twice in one season, there is nothing uplifting about this Alabama team right now that makes it seem like things will turn around. Ty Simpson is also rumored to be nursing a back injury. If Alabama sees another first half where the run game is completely irrelevant, I think the Sooners can make it 2-0 against the Tide.
2 Leg Parlay: Miami +7.5/Ole Miss Tulane UNDER 63.5 (+101)
CFP First Round: Miami @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 12 p.m., ABC)
To be quite frank, I thought the spread on this game was pretty square. This is the most exciting matchup of the first round of the playoffs. Miami ended the season playing well, but against some pretty weak ACC competition. The key for Miami in this one will be how the Hurricanes convert on third down. Texas A&M has the No. 1 1 defense in the nation on 3rd down and Miami will counter that with an experienced QB in Carson Beck. Miami started as a 4.5 point underdog and the line has moved to 3. This feels like a one-possession game either way, and I am not exactly sure who wins it.
CFP First Round: Tulane @ Ole Miss (3 p.m., TNT)
This is another true spread and total that I am just steering clear of this weekend. Unless you have been living under a rock the last month, there is no need to really dive into why. In short, Tulane’s couch is out the door, Ole Miss’ coach is out the door, and there is a lot of moving and shaking going on with both coaching staffs. Add to that, both teams have already played once this season when things were normal and I find it very difficult to put a pulse on this game. The first game these two played went under the total and that’s where I would lean here with all the volatility around Ole Miss.