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By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
A 5-4 championship weekend is nothing to write home about, but nonetheless still a winning week. Really disappointed in the James Madison offense for only scoring 31 on Troy, but it doesn’t matter for the Dukes as they draw into the College Football Playoff. We dive deep into the CFP championship market in this week’s cheat sheet.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF OUTRIGHT OUTLOOK
Teams I want no part of
- James Madison (600-1) and Tulane (800-1): Let’s face it, the rule that allows a non-Power 5 school a bid into the College Football Playoff is outright silly. College football is nothing like college basketball or baseball, and the distance between the big and small schools keeps growing in the NIL era. Underdogs in basketball and baseball are fun because standout players at smaller universities can affect a game in a big way. In football that just isn’t the case and neither James Madison nor Tulane have a roster that can win four games in a row against the level of competition in this playoff.
- Alabama (25-1): The Crimson Tide limped into the college football playoff and got awarded with the 9 seed. Alabama has to travel to Norman, Oklahoma to play a team that just won in Tuscaloosa. That will be a tall task for a Bama team that had minus-3 rushing yards in the SEC Championship. The real concern is for Alabama’s offense. Over the last three games, Bama has averaged 1.2 yards less per play, and only 2.7 yards per rush, with a putrid 27% third-down conversion rate during that time span. Add in a minus-0.7 turnover margin and it seems like the Tide have a lot to get figured out right now. That’s a bad situation to be in when going on the road to play one of the best defenses in college football.
- Ole Miss (25-1): The bottom part of this bracket is not where you want to be as an underdog. Georgia is humming and Ohio State has an otherworldly defense. Yes, Ole Miss gets a very nice draw in the first round, with a home game against a Tulane team the Rebels have already beat like a drum. But can we really see this Ole Miss team, after what it’s been through, winning back-to-back games in the later rounds against teams like Georgia and Ohio State? I sure can’t.
- Miami (22-1): The committee really did us a disservice by not giving us a potential second-round matchup between Miami and Georgia. The way the Georgia defense is playing, there is nothing more the Bulldogs would have loved more than a revenge game with Carson Beck. Instead, Miami has to go to Texas A&M, which should be a close game that the Hurricanes could win. But unfortunately the fun will most likely end in the next round against Ohio State. As is the case with Ole Miss, I just see it being very difficult for an underdog to come from this part of the bracket.
- Texas A&M (18-1): Six weeks ago, I really thought Texas A&M had a chance to win this thing. Unfortunately a favorable easier schedule in the SEC combined with a late-season loss to Texas dropped the Aggies all the way to a 7 seed, and now tasked with having to win three consecutive games against stiff competition. A&M has a very nice roster and a great coach, but I just think the task will be too tall to win three straight against three elite defensive units. The big question all season was whether or not Marcel Reed can win a game late with his arm. With this draw, he might have to do it three times in a row and I think we need much larger odds than 18-1 for that to happen.
The Favorites
- Ohio State (+240): By no means is this me saying Ohio State cannot win this playoff. I just think 240 is too small of a price to take for a team to repeat as national champion. There isn’t a doubt in my mind Ohio State will boast the best defense in whatever game the Buckeyes play. Repeats are not necessarily uncommon, as four programs have done it in the last 25 years. But nothing about this Ohio State team has shown it to be an unbeatable force, and at that price I am willing to look elsewhere.
- Indiana (+250): As we saw in the Big Ten Championship game, and now with the prices in the outright market, there isn’t much that separating the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes. I think it’s hard for a lot of people to comprehend Indiana being this good on the football field because the Hoosiers were dungeon dwellers in the Big Ten for so long. This is a team that can win a National Championship and I like the price more than Ohio State’s. I really think this is just a year where there isn’t one standout team, although Indiana comes into this playoff as the justifiable top seed. If all odds were the same, this is probably the team I am taking to win the whole thing, but at this price, I would rather look elsewhere.
- Georgia (+600): Every year in college basketball there is a “buzz” team that 90 percent of the sports media picks to win the NCAA Tournament because it finished the regular season on an absolute heater. Cue the Georgia Bulldogs as this year’s football version of the hot team. Georgia’s defense has seen massive improvements over the last four games and just put a beatdown on an Alabama team that gives the Dawgs fits all the time. There will be a lot of people jumping on the Bulldogs at 6-1 and it’s hard to blame them. There aren’t many reasons not to. If the price was a tad better, I would probably jump on them as well. There are just a few prices I like better.
Outright Market Picks
- Oregon (8-1): Three weeks ago I was not a huge fan of the Ducks. But things change, and Oregon has drawn the catbird seat here. An easy matchup with James Madison should see the Ducks draw a coin-flip second-round matchup with…
- Texas Tech (9-1): The quarterfinal matchup with Oregon is more than likely a coin flip, as the prices in the outright market would suggest. The reason I like taking both teams in the outright market here is simple. There is a very, very high probability one of these two teams makes the semifinal game against Indiana, and I don’t hate either team’s matchup against the Hoosiers. Oregon has seen Indiana already and it was a very close game the Ducks could’ve easily won in the end. Texas Tech is 12-1 against the spread this season and is one of the hottest teams coming into the playoff. Can either Oregon or Texas Tech beat (more than likely) Georgia or Ohio State? Maybe not. But with the amount we have to invest, we have the option to hedge once the title game arrives.
- Oklahoma (55-1): Simply put, I think this price is just too high. Oklahoma has a defense that will keep the Sooners in any game they play. Can their offense score enough to win four straight games against elite competition? Probably not likely, but the defense can keep them in every game. Add to that formula a playmaking quarterback like John Mateer and anything is possible.
My Betting Tickets
- Oregon to win National Championship – 0.5 units to win 4 units
- Texas Tech to win National Championship – 0.4 units to win 3.6 units
- Oklahoma to win National Championship – .1 units to win 5.5 units
Week 15 NFL Picks
New York Jets (+12.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jets are much more efficient with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. The Jaguars return to Jacksonville coming off a massive win at Indianapolis. Double digit points is too many to lay in a spot like this for Jacksonville, which can sleepwalk through this game and win it by a possession. Give me the Jets and the points.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)
The Bengals caught some really bad breaks at the end of the Buffalo game last week to blow a 10-point lead. A tipped interception and another interception that slipped from Joe Burrow’s hands ended the Bengals chances in the fourth quarter. The Ravens offense has been really struggling as of late, and the Bengals have looked much better since Burrow returned. Give me Cincinnati at home.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos UNDER 43.5
Maybe the biggest game on the slate this weekend falls in the late afternoon. It will have the feel of a playoff game even though the teams play in different conferences as both teams are playing for a top overall seed in the playoffs. I like both defenses to come prepared, so give me under 43.5.