BY J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
A nice finish to the weekend as Virginia getting the outright win as a 4.5 point underdog gave us a 4-1 record, only missing on the final leg of the parlay as Pittsburgh did not come ready to play against East Carolina. That’s three straight winning weekends now for the Chadwell Cheat Sheet! This week we will look closely at the upcoming College Football Playoff games as well as the Tennessee/Illinois matchup in the Music City Bowl.
Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs Illinois OVER 60.5 (Tuesday, 5:30 p.m., ESPN)
The line in this game is Tennessee (-2.5), which suggests we should see a pretty close game, so I lean towards a contest that is more back and forth, rather than a struggle for the offenses to get going. A couple key stats that work in favor here: Illinois was outside the top 100 in sack percentage. This should help he Vols on the deep balls they like to occasionally throw, which could yield more big plays than usual. The other massive gap is the third down offense for Tennessee (11th in the country) matched up against Illinois’ third down defense (120th nationally). If Tennessee can hit big plays and convert on third down, the offense will be hard to stop. On the other side of the ball, Illinois was 16th this season in completion percentage while Tennessee was 122nd in opposing completion percentage.
CFP Quarterfinal #1: Miami vs Ohio State (-9.5) (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)
The mission is quite black and white for the Hurricanes. They have to find a way to somehow move the ball against the No. 1-ranked Buckeye defense, and after watching them for four quarters against Texas A&M, I just don’t see how they can do it enough to make this game close. Miami’s defense is very good and I think the ‘Canes can keep this close for a half or three quarters. But to me this matchup isn’t about numbers and matchups, the Hurricanes just don’t have the horsepower to keep this game within 10 points if Ohio State plays it’s B-level game or better. The wild card for the Hurricanes will be if they can find ways for Malachi Toney to put the Ohio State defense on its heels. If you haven’t watched Miami this season, Toney is a next level playmaker that can flip a game in the drop of a hat.
CFP Quarterfinal #2: Oregon vs Texas Tech (+2.5) (Thursday, 12 p.m., ESPN)
In a game that looks pretty even on paper I opt to take the Red Raiders and the points. Texas Tech has been a phenomenal 12-1 against the spread this season with only two of the 12 wins even being within one score. I think the big question for the Red Raiders here is can they make Oregon a one-dimensional offense and make Dante Moore beat them through the air. Oregon does a great job of setting up its passing game with the run (100th in the nation in pass play percentage). Texas Tech has the No. 1-ranked rush defense in the entire country, but hasn’t seen a rushing attack quite like this one all season. Finally, Texas Tech boasts the second-ranked team in turnover margin in the nation. If the Red Raiders can limit Oregon’s rushing attack and win the turnover battle, I like Texas Tech to get the job done.
CFP Quarterfinal #3: Alabama (+7.5) vs Indiana (4 p.m., ESPN)
We should always be wary of a public underdog, which is what Alabama will be here. Buying the hook for the extra half point as well. This feels like a sucker line, but given Indiana’s results against teams with a pulse this season, I just don’t expect a blowout. Indiana was in low-scoring dog fights against Penn State and Iowa and I would expect the same to happen Thursday. The obvious concern is Alabama’s inability to run the ball, and it’s not going to get easier against Indiana, which has the third-best rushing defense in the country. Indiana’s pass defense is nothing special (although not bad by any means), so buying the hook really opens up the possibility of a back door cover.
CFP Quarterfinal #4: Georgia vs Ole Miss UNDER 55.5 (8 p.m., ESPN)
These two teams scored 78 points combined in their matchup earlier in the season, so the fact the total opened at 56.5 shows that was more of an outlier than something to expect again. Georgia’s defense has really found itself over the last few games of the season. Over the last three, the Georgia defense has allowed 0.6 yards less per play, and 1.1 less per play against the run. The Ole Miss offense looked good in the first-round matchup against Tulane, but this will be a much bigger challenge, especially with Georgia having already seen a lot of Ole Miss schemes. If Georgia can grab a second-half lead, I look for the Dawgs to ground and pound the Rebels in the second half. A running clock in the second half and we can cash the under.