By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
A 3-2 week last week that could’ve been way better had Oklahoma not gift-wrapped Alabama 17 points at the end of the first half. Nonetheless, we have another winning week. Before we get into some of this week’s bowl picks let’s look ahead to the CFB Playoff quarterfinals.
Indiana (-7) vs Alabama – Heisman Trophy winners don’t have the best record in CFB Playoff games. Can Indiana find enough offense to take the Tide down?
Ohio State (-9.5) vs Miami – Texas A&M has a really good defense that Carson Beck could not do anything against. Bad news for Carson, Ohio State’s defense is even better. Will Miami score a touchdown in this game?
Georgia (-6.5) vs Ole Miss – Ole Miss gets its second rematch in as many weeks. History (almost exactly) repeated itself in their first round matchup vs Tulane. The sportsbooks are expecting history to (almost exactly) repeat itself in the second-round matchup vs Georgia. The Dawgs won the last matchup by eight, but can Ole Miss turn the tables this time?
Oregon (-1.5) vs Texas Tech – Very exciting matchup here. Oregon hasn’t been winning its games in the most convincing ways possible. Texas Tech has destroyed everything in its path going 12-1 against the spread this season with the lone slip-up coming on the road at Arizona State. It’s very rare in college football to get a team 12-1 against the spread catching points. Will Texas Tech keep the throttle down and get to the CFB semifinals?
Bowl Plays
FIU/UTSA Over 59.5 (First Responder Bowl, 12/26, 8 p.m., ESPN)
Both teams finished their regular season on high notes with UTSA winning three of its last five (three of four if we throw out the South Florida game) and FIU winning four in a row. The interesting thing about these two teams is neither played many close games all year relative to the spread, which means it seems likely one side will score a lot of points. Both of these teams can score and if one team is able to get to 40, I like the other side to get 21. That’s enough points to cover the 59 here.
UCONN vs Army (-8.5) (Fenway Bowl, 12/27, 2:15 p.m., ESPN)
Welcome to the NIL era of bowl games. If both teams are at full strength here, this line might be flipped completely. UCONN had one of the best offenses in the nation all year. The total for this game is 43.5, which is a far cry from what it would be should the Huskies be at full strength. The line opened at Army -4.5 and in games where a team gains 10 or more points to the final spread, those teams hit the final spread 64% of the time. Give me Army minus the points.
North Texas vs San Diego State (+3.5) (New Mexico Bowl, 12/27, 5:45 p.m., ESPN)
Another game that has seen the line tank from the opening spread. This one is down almost four points as North Texas’ magical season fell just short of a CFB playoff birth. Unfortunately for the Mean Green, more times than not in college football, teams that fall just short end up falling way short in their bowl games. This is a quality Aztec side that, if it just comes motivated to play, can win this game outright. It’s also a very good matchup for San Diego State. The Aztecs have a pretty good run offense to attack a porous North Texas run defense. On the flip side, they boast the seventh-ranked passing defense to slow down the Mean Green’s second-ranked passing attack.
Missouri vs Virginia (+4.5) (Gator Bowl, 12/27, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
Virginia had everything in its grasp at the end of the season and could not finish off Duke in the ACC Championship game to make its way to the CFB Playoff. I like this matchup for the Cavaliers. These look like two pretty equal teams on paper, so getting 4.5 points here seems like the play. Missouri is only 2-2 in bowl games under Eli Drinkwitz. Looking at the head-to-head matchup, there really isn’t much to differentiate these two teams, so even though Virginia played a bit of a softer schedule, I still think this will be a close game that four points is probably too much to give or take on either side.
3 leg parlay (+102)
Northwestern ML vs. Central Michigan (GameAbove Sports Bowl, 12/26, 1 p.m., ESPN) – The Wildcats should be able to outclass Central Michigan.
New Mexico/Minnesota under 55.5 (Rate Bowl, 12/26, 4:30 p.m., ESPN) – Here we have two teams with good defenses that run the ball a lot. This game might feature the two least explosive offenses of the entire bowl season. I don’t expect a lot of points here.
Pittsburgh ML vs. East Carolina (Military Bowl, 12/27, 11 a.m., ABC) – East Carolina had a nice season, but will be missing some players and the line has moved almost four points in favor of the Panthers.