By J.T. CHADWELL
Recap
We went 1-6 last week after just nothing fell our way all weekend. Cincinnati gave up a brutal 99-yard drive, Arizona State a 97-yard touchdown on third-and-27, Air Force and UCONN combined for over 700 yards of offense but only 42 points, and, the worst of them all, New Mexico turns the ball over 4 times.
The No Free Lunch Award: Indiana
After scooting by on the road at Penn State, public bettors foresaw Indiana in a very nice bounce-back spot at home against a Wisconsin team coming off a performance that saw its punter lead the team in passing yards (24) and still eke out a win against Washington. Indiana garnered 90 percent of the public money laying 29.5 points at home. A very lackluster performance in the first half made this number very difficult to cover as the Hoosiers allowed Wisconsin’s first drive to last nearly eight minutes. After scoring only 10 points in the first half, the nail in the coffin for the Hoosiers was a nearly seven-minute drive in the fourth quarter that resulted in no points. Although they outgained Wisconsin by 210 yards, the Hoosiers once again proved there is no such thing as a free lunch.
This Week’s Plays
Hawaii @ UNLV OVER 64.5
The spread on this game comes in a little lower than I expected, as Hawaii will be getting five points. I think this suggests a close game here is likely. As we dig in to the numbers, two things stood out to me. To hit overs, we need drives that end in scores, preferably touchdowns. Hawaii ranks third in the nation in red zone scoring percentage, while UNLV ranks 111th in opposing team scoring percentage. UNLV ranks 15th offensively in red zone scoring percentage while Hawaii ranks 92nd in opposing team scoring percentage. Explosive plays are also going to be in play here as UNLV ranks 126th defensively in yards per play.
Tulsa @ Army (-9.5)
I like this spot for Army, as Tulsa might be getting a little bit more respect than it deserves coming off a rare win. Tulsa does not do really much of anything well on offense, ranking outside the top 50 in every offensive category. The edge here will come in the Army rushing attack. Army is fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game and the Black Knights draw a Tulsa defense that gives up 177 yards per game. Army rushes for almost half a yard more per carry at home as well. Let’s look for Army to get the ground game going early and pound the Golden Hurricane.
UNC Charlotte (+44.5) @ Georgia
Buying this one up to 45.5 might be more comfortable, but it might not be needed. This is an exhibition for Georgia that should not see many starters playing more than a half. Add to the fact that Kirby Smart has NEVER covered a spread of this margin in his tenure at Georgia and Charlotte can get the job done.
USC @ Oregon UNDER 59.5
It seems like it has been a long time since we had a very significant USC/Oregon matchup, but this game is basically a playoff eliminator. While Oregon might have a path as a two-loss team, the Ducks would be put in a position where they would need extra help and could not control their own destiny. I expect this game to play out more like a playoff game than a regular season game. Neither team has an explosive offense and will probably be more on the conservative side with their playcalling to avoid mistakes. Throw in Oregon’s defense ranked in the top five, and USC’s heavy struggles on the road, and I think this one stays under 60.
Arkansas Team Total OVER 20.5; Michigan State Team Total UNDER 17.5
Texas came into the season with one of the best defensive units in the nation. That unit has crumbled as of late and is really struggling to stop anyone. The game total here is 57.5 so points are expected to be scored. Arkansas has a quarterback that can move and make plays similar to other quarterbacks Texas has struggled against. Michigan State is just trying to get to the end of the season and goes to Iowa to face a defense that is very good at home.
Colorado State @ Boise State (-16.5)
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Colorado State is bad and without the four New Mexico turnovers last week, the Rams easily get beat by 17-plus points again. Boise has been feast or famine this season, either losing outright or covering this number in a majority of their wins. Boise tends to be very good at home and does not turn the ball over a lot. Also the Boise State defense tends to show up at home, giving up a whole yard less per play than their season average. Boise can score 27 and cover this.
Syracuse @ Notre Dame (-34.5)
For the third consecutive week Notre Dame finds itself in the exact same spot, and for the third straight week we will back them; we went 1-1 in the previous two. The likelihood that a two-loss Notre Dame gets into the playoff has grown with each week, but one slip up and they are definitely out. Now for the third straight week we get one of the hottest offenses in the country with incentive to throw large points on the board against a hapless Syracuse defense. Notre Dame should score at will here, all we need is for CJ Carr to be a little more careful with the ball.
Longshot Parlay of the Week (+596)
- Houston ML vs. TCU (4 p.m., FOX) – TCU is reeling late and loves to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
- Pittsburgh ML at Georgia Tech (7 p.m., ESPN)– Haynes King can’t keep bailing out this Yellow Jackets defense.
- BYU ML at Cincinnati (8 p.m., FOX) – The Cougars have done nothing but win all year. They’re a better team than Cincinnati.
FUTURES MARKET OF THE WEEK – 2026 Super Bowl
Last week we examined the College Football Playoff market. This week let’s take at the current futures market for the Super Bowl and highlight teo teams.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1000) – Double digit odds on Patrick Mahomes should almost be a requirement for any sports bettor. Yes, the Chiefs are 5-5, but the schedule gets easier from here on out. Chiefs still have games left against the Cowboys, Texans, Raiders, and Titans. If they can hold serve in those four games, the Chiefs would then only have to win one of their three remaining games against the Colts, Broncos, and Chargers (and Justin Herbert is a little banged up right now) to get to 10 wins. And 10 wins will see them into the playoffs where, regardless of their seed, they will probably be favored to come out of the AFC.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+3500) – Here at the Chadwell Cheat Sheet, we like nothing more than large underdogs and big prices. San Francisco currently sits at 7-4 in a wide open NFC, and has already won a road game against the NFC’s top team with their backup quarterback. Niners are now finally getting healthy on the offensive side of the ball (Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall returned last week). The defense needs work, but at 35/1 odds, you get a head coach that has been to two Super Bowls, a quarterback that has been to a Super Bowl, and a team with a pretty soft schedule to end the season with upcoming games against the Browns, Titans, and Panthers. The Niners could easily get to 11 wins.