By J.T. CHADWELL
RECORD
Last Week: 2-4 (Lost Sicko Special)
Overall: 24-14 (3-1 Sicko Special)
RECAP
Kirby Smart and Georgia were finally able to get the job done in Tuscaloosa, marking Smart’s first win on Alabama’s field since leaving Alabama to become the head coach at Georgia. Georgia now takes the top spot in the polls heading into next week, and it’s well deserved. This looks to be the best team in college football. Other teams have better specific units, but combining all three phases (offense, defense, and special teams), the Bulldogs have the best combination. They take the top spot from Texas, which didn’t execute much of anything all day against Oklahoma. The Longhorns could not get their run game going, and it’s beginning to look like Arch Manning isn’t a guy who is going to go win you a game when needed. The pick six in a tied game with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter on a throw that was lobbed over the middle is just a decision and throw you cannot make in that situation. Texas appears to be severely limited on offense at the moment. Speaking of limited on offense, sometimes in sports betting things happen that just don’t make any sense, and we take the loss and move on. Toledo, which averaged nearly 49 points a game in its last four games ,was held scoreless through three quarters against a putrid Buffalo defense.
It’s now time to bounce back and get another winning week. (All times Eastern)
Alabama @ Tennessee UNDER 52.5 (3:30, ABC)
This line is catching steam right now and it’s probably not done falling. The logic is pretty simple here. This is a massive game for each team, both of which have shown the ability to stop good offenses with their defenses. Toss in that both starting QBs here will be freshmen, and I think this will be a very conservatively called game from both sides. Tennessee’s offense just isn’t very good this season, most glaringly when throwing the ball. Tennessee ranks 119th in the FBS in pass yards per game. The Vols’ scoring ability relies solely on how they establish the run and Alabama to this point in the season has been good at stopping it (20th in FBS). The key matchup in this one is how the Alabama offensive line protects Keelon Russell. Alabama is 111th in FBS in sacks allowed, and Tennessee leads the country in total sacks and sacks per game.
Oklahoma State @ Houston OVER 61.5 (7:30, FOX)
We just missed on the Houston over last week, so let’s run it back this week. Houston’s pass defense has been less than stellar this season, and that’s the matchup we want to attack here. Oklahoma State brings a high octane passing attack into the Lone Star State this week that ranks sixth in the FBS in passing yards. Even after a good showing (or poor Kansas State offensive performance), Houston still enters the week tied for 118th in the FBS in passing yards allowed, and we saw Oregon State hit the Cougars early and often through the air earlier this season. We mentioned Houston’s run offense last week, and they draw another soft matchup this week as the Cowboys are tied for 81st in the nation at stopping the run. Finally, teams are scoring in the red zone at a 93 percent clip against Houston, and this is a Cowboys team that knows how to get touchdowns instead of field goals.
Florida (Team Total UNDER 21.5 points) @ Texas (Noon, ABC)
The line in this game opened with Texas a 10.5 point favorite, which I found a little suspicious. But, I don’t trust Texas to beat anyone by 10 points, so let’s go to the next best thing, and the unit we can trust on this Longhorns team, the defense. Maybe we get a bit of an inflated line here after Texas gave up 27 to Oklahoma, but that was far from the fault of the defense. The Sooners scored a touchdown on special teams and on defense, only amassing one offensive touchdown all game. Florida is a hard team to put a pulse on, but one thing we can lean on over the last couple of games is that the Gators haven’t been able to get a run game going. Texas is 19th in the FBS in fewest rush yards allowed per game, and the game under is 11-18-1 in Texas home games since 2022.
Baylor (-5.5) vs. TCU (7, FS1)
One of the more disappointing teams this season has been TCU. They are now 2-3 for the season, but 0-3 against teams that have half a pulse. After a close loss early in the season to Auburn, Baylor is quietly putting together a nice season. The Bears have rattled off three straight wins against Louisiana Tech, Colorado, and Arizona State in convincing fashion. Points will be at a premium in this one, but TCU has their backs against the wall here. We always mention how run games travel well. Unfortunately for TCU their run game has been non-existent this season (110th out of 138 FBS teams in yards per rush), and now goes on the road to face a Baylor defense that is 17th in FBS in yards per rush allowed. TCU will be playing from behind the chains if that holds, and that’s where Baylor’s pash rush steps in. TCU is tied for 109th in the FBS in sacks allowed, while Baylor is tied for fourth in sacks.
Rice (+4.5) vs. Tulsa (4:30, ESPN+)
Data play of the week. We catch two teams that are in fantastic spots situationally this week, one to fade and one to play. Let’s talk about the fade of Tulsa. Since 2021, Tulsa is only 1-6 as an away favorite. Couple that with the fact Tulsa has now lost 3 straight, I am happy to fade them in this spot. Rice on the other hand is 13-6 has a home underdog since 2021. Rice has also lost 5 straight, but the competition has been way stiffer than what this Tulsa team offers. In addition to the competition being tougher, the games have also been pretty competitive. Even in last week’s 16 point defeat to East Carolina, Rice only trailed 14-9 heading into the 4th quarter. Tulsa doesn’t run the ball great (65th in the FBS in rush yards per game), and the Rice pass defense (30th in FBS in yards allowed) has been respectable this season. Finally, we get a Rice team that should be able to control the clock. The Owls rank 13th in the nation in rush yards per game and draw a Tulsa defense that is 110th in FBS in stopping the run.
Sicko Special of the Week
Navy (Team Total OVER 23.5 pts) @ UTSA (8, ESPNU)
Navy has hit this line in three of five matchups this season, and UTSA has given up this total in three of five matchups as well this season. The key matchup we are attacking here is the UTSA run defense, which ranks 111th in yards per rush allowed, and 119th in rush yards per game given up. Navy has a pretty good defense, so the game total of 55.5 is just a tad high for my liking. UTSA has a hard enough time stopping the run against normal teams, and Navy’s offense is incredibly hard to defend for teams that don’t see it very often. Let’s look for Navy to establish the run early and often and hit some big gaps against a weak run defense.