By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP: 2-3 last week; 8-7 overall
The run of winning weeks is over, as we caught a bit of an unlucky break with the weather in Pittsburgh. Lots of rain and wind handcuffed both teams on offense a little bit. However, the other two losses were not close. Maryland looks like it has improved quite a bit. Malik Washington was making some very good throws, some of which were under pressure from UConn defenders. They also established the run nicely, controlling the line of scrimmage and leaning on DeJuan Williams.
Meanwhile, it’s gut check time for the Oregon Ducks for the first time in Dan Lanning’s tenure. Things went pretty smoothly the first 55 games, as Lanning boasted a record of 48-7 during the regular season. But after a thumping in the CFB playoff from Indiana, a lackadaisical game nearly lost to Boise State, and a beatdown by an Oklahoma State team that hadn’t won a FBS game in almost two years, Oregon’s season could go south very quickly. Let’s see how they answer. And let’s see how we rebound and go 5-0 this week. Here are the picks:
All times eastern.
Alabama (-19.5) vs. Florida State (3:30 PM, ABC)
This line opened at 17.5 and has already moved to 19.5. This is a massive mismatch in talent on the field, and even more so when we look at the situational data. Alabama as a home favorite hits at nearly a 70% rate, while Florida State as a road underdog hits under nearly 30%. I could see this line even getting up closer to 21.5 by game time.
Penn State (-39.5) vs. Buffalo (Noon, Big Ten Network)
Right back to the well fading the Bulls this season. Matt Campbell has already shown he is capable of running up the score, and in only his third game as the Nittany Lions coach, I could see him doing it again. The kicker is, he can score as many points as he wants. The Nittany Lions’ depth is what makes this line attractive. Even with the second stringers in for a lot of the second half, they can still score points on this Buffalo team.
Mississippi State (+4.5) @ South Carolina (4:15 PM, SEC Network)
Kamario Taylor looks like an up and coming superstar in the SEC, and has the chance to upstage LaNorris Sellers this week. I had this game closer to a pick ‘em line, so I am happy to take the 4.5 here. I think Mississippi State can win this game outright. Mississippi State averaged 7.2 yards per carry against Minnesota, and if the Bulldogs are able to establish that same baseline against the Gamecocks, South Carolina could be in trouble.
UTSA (+31.5) @ Texas (8 PM, SEC Network+)
This is what I call the sandwich angle. This is a meaningless game for Texas sandwiched right in between two highly important games. Texas is coming off a huge comeback win where emotions were high and even head coach Steve Sarkisian had a hard time controlling his at the end of the Ohio State game. Couple that with the fact that Texas will go on the road next week to Knoxville and play Tennessee, and this is going to be a game where Texas could easily lose focus. UTSA has a capable enough offense to score some points, and even maybe cover through the back door if Texas is up 38 late. UTSA is also 16-11 as an underdog since 2020 against the spread.
Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin under 45.5 (12:30 PM, Peacock)
Data play of the week. Since 2013, early week, non-conference games with a favorite of more than four points, and a total of 47 points or less have gone under 68.9 percent of the time. That’s a good starting point. When we look at Eastern Michigan, since 2020 when they are an away underdog, the under is 16-12. Looking at Wisconsin, the under is 18-11-1 when they are a home favorite since 2020. And let’s be honest, this just feels like a 23-10 win for Wisconsin doesn’t it? Give me the under of 45.5.
Sicko Special of the Week
Jacksonville State (-2.5) vs. Georgia Southern (7 PM, ESPN+)
Jacksonville State snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last weekend at Ohio. Nothing would be more sick than to bounce back off that effort and get a big win at home, a place where Jacksonville State is quite comfortable. Since joining the FBS, this team is 15-5 against the spread at home. Last week we wrote about Georgia Southern taking experience on the road at Clemson and how it would benefit them, and it did. However, now the spread is only 2.5 points and if Max Johnson can’t figure things out after being in FBS for seemingly 15 years, he’s never going to. Jacksonville State wins and covers this weekend.