By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
What a chance it was at a big hit last week in Texas. Andrew Putnam was in the mix from the jump and even had the solo lead on Sunday with 10 holes to play. Robert MacIntyre led the majority of the first 54 holes as well. Unfortunately J.J. Spaun got red hot on the back nine and eagled the par 4 17th en route to a one-shot win and, once again, our hearts got broken on a Sunday afternoon. It has been a rough last six weeks with a lot of bad beats on the weekend, but there’s no better time than this week to break off that streak and get a winner. It’s Masters weekend and we will be providing lots more picks and content for the biggest tournament of the year.
THE MASTERS PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025, Rory McIlroy (6.5/1) – Made cuts in all six events coming in with two wins and two top-5 finishes.
- 2024, Scottie Scheffler (4/1) – Made cuts in all eight events coming in, with two wins and three top-5 finishes,
- 2023, Jon Rahm (9/1) – Made the cut in all seven of his previous events, with three wins and a top-5 finish.
- 2022, Scottie Scheffler (14/1) – Made the cut in seven of seven events coming into Augusta, posting three wins and a top-10 finish.
- 2021, Hideki Matsuyama (50/1) – Made the cut in six of eight events, with three top-20 finishes.
THE MASTERS
Golf’s biggest event takes center stage this week as the players (and myself; I was there Monday!) head to Augusta National Golf Club for The Masters. Between the condition and the beauty of the golf course, and the risk/reward layout of the back nine, this event never disappoints. As proven from the data above, the cream of the crop nearly always rises to the top in this event. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jon Rahm are the top three players in the world and have combined to win the last four events here. Augusta demands the best shots from the best players, so total strokes gained over the last 3-6 months is the key indicator when looking for an outright selection. Augusta is also the most predictive course based on prior results, so while that will be factored in, all of the big names typically play here anyways. This year The Masters seems to be a little more wide open than in previous years, as last year’s champion McIlroy will be tasked with all the things the prior champion must do during the week (media events, champions dinner, etc.), and is also dealing with a lingering back issue. Scheffler is the deserved 4/1 betting favorite, but he has not been playing like it lately. With this being the first major of the year we will look to invest two total units into this week’s outright card.
THE BETTING CARD
- JON RAHM (13/1), .75 UNITS TO WIN 9.75 UNITS – For the first time in a really long time, there is a new leader in the clubhouse for total strokes gained over the last three months. Yes the competition isn’t as stiff on the LIV Tour, but Rahm’s finishes this season have been first, second, second, second, and fifth. We get 2.5 times the price on Rahm, who is also a past champion, than we do on Scheffler. Rahm also boasts five top 10 finishes in his career at Augusta.
- XANDER SCHAUFFELE (18/1), .4 UNITS TO WIN 7.2 UNITS- The sentiment around most people is that Schauffele adds a green jacket to his closet before the end of his career. He has all the tools to win here and this is a pretty good price for him this year. He has posted top 10s in three of the last four events he has played, gaining strokes in every category and every event except one, where he only lost .2 shots around the greens. His last seven trips to Augusta have resulted in five top 10s.
- CAMERON YOUNG (27/1), .4 UNITS TO WIN 10.8 UNITS- I am a little surprised his odds are still above 20/1 given he just won The Players and this golf course seems tailor made to fit his game. Young is sixth in strokes gained over the last three months and has posted three straight top 10s, all in signature events. If we throw out last year when Young’s game was a train wreck, his two trips here before that were top 10 finishes (seventh and ninth). If he continues driving it and hitting his irons this well, this could be one of those events that Young separates himself early and everyone else is chasing him.
- RUSSELL HENLEY (66/1), .15 UNITS TO WIN 9.9 UNITS- Time for the longshot portion of the card, because what fun is golf betting without longshots. This is a crazy price for Henley who doesn’t typically play bad at this golf course and has four prior top 20s here. We have been seeing Russ in the 20-25 range for all the signature events, so I’ll gladly jump at 66. Henley is 11th in total strokes gained over the last three months, and has only finished outside the top 20 once since June.
- MIN WOO LEE (66/1), .15 UNITS TO WIN 9.9 UNITS- Another longshot I am jumping at the number is Min Woo. The key for Lee has been the increase in iron play. He is starting to gain strokes on approach and the results are following. Lee is one of, if not the best when you combine off the tee prowess with short game skill. He is also fifth in strokes gained over the last three months, posting three top 10 finishes in that time. He has had four trips to Augusta with the best finish being 12th, but his game has been nowhere near this sharp heading in.
- ADAM SCOTT (80/1), .15 UNITS TO WIN 12 UNITS- The final longshot on the card goes to a previous winner that has been posting some good finishes as of late. Scott has made 20 of 23 cuts in his trips to August with a second in 2011 and a win in 2013. Scott is fourth in strokes gained approach over the last three months, so I’ll take a flyer on him event though his short game hasn’t been stellar. He knows this golf course like the back of his hand, and maybe some familiarity will get the putter and the short game going.