By BILLY DIXON
OK, seriously, I give up. When it comes to this Tennessee baseball team, I’m like the emoji with the hands held up in confusion and surrender. For sure the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde routine has kept things interesting, but Jiminy Christmas …
Just when you think they have things figured and are ready to roll, they turn in a stinker like they did in Lexington against Kentucky two weeks ago.
When they’re facing the daunting task of going against one of the top pitching staffs in the country, they scrap out five runs – including three against a pitcher who hadn’t allowed three runs combined in his last three outings – to steal game one. Then the Vols pound out six home runs and thrash the Longhorns in game two to take the series.
This was a weekend set where finding a way to win one game would be an accomplishment after the travails of the prior week.
How about the pitching? One week after getting ripped for 10 hits and six runs against Kentucky, Tegan Kuhns turned in perhaps the best outing for a Vol in years: no runs and only four hits in seven innings with 15 strikeouts – earning him his second Southeastern Conference Pitcher of the Week honor.
With the exception of the Kentucky game and a less-than-stellar outing against Missouri early in the season, Kuhns has been really, really good. Take out those two, and he’s allowed just four earned runs across six of his last seven starts (the outlier being the Kentucky game). He hasn’t allowed a run in three of his last four starts and, in those seven games, he’s struck out 61 in 41 innings and walked eight.
That’s star-level stuff. Except for the baffling exceptions that have plagued the entire staff.
Evan Blanco was good enough in Saturday’s contest, especially considering the circumstances. The Vols were going to have to use Johnny Wholestaff on Sunday (more about that in a moment), so they needed a long outing from Blanco. They got it. Seven innings pitched, scattering seven hits and five runs while striking out eight. Brandon Arvidson was able to come in and weather a ninth-inning rally to secure the win and the series.
That was vital because normal Sunday starter Landon Mack was scratched from the rotation due to what was described as “general soreness.”
The Vols went with midweek starter Taylor Tracey, who got two quick outs, then lost the zone. Three walks and two hits later, the Longhorns led 4-0 in the top of the first. In all, seven Vols took the mound. Thanks to 10 walks, Texas scored 13 runs on only 10 hits.
After the Tennessee weekend starters, Arvidson, and Bo Rhudy, the rest of the staff just has not been reliable against SEC foes. Four freshmen and two sophomores in the Sunday mix had the stuff to get batters out. In a game like this, 10 hits is not bad. You can live with a solo or two-run home run here and there. It’s the walks that kill you. Adrian Rodriguez‘s 3-run home run in the first was courtesy of two walks. Casey Borba‘s second homer of the day was a grand slam that came after 3 walks.
In all, seven of the 10 walked batters scored. With a 13-6 final score, those seven runs were the difference.
On the positive side, the Vols hit eight home runs on the weekend. Combined with ix more against Belmont in Tuesday night’s non-conference tilt and Tennessee now has 105 long balls on the season. More impressively, of the 12 combined homers Saturday and Tuesday, 10 different players contributed.
That brings us to:
Stats of Note
The 105 home runs not only brings the Vols within seven of last year’s total (in 12 fewer games so far), but also gives them the fifth most in the country. They are now officially the only SEC team to ever hit 100 or more homers in five straight seasons.
Five Vols are now in double figures, led by Henry Ford with 16. Manny Marin needs just one to join the club, and after a long ball each on Tuesday, Trent Grindlinger and Garrett Wright sit with eight each.
I hesitate greatly to say it in print considering how every such statement I make turns on its head the very next game or series, but the Vols are now the best fielding team in the nation. They have not made an error in seven games.
I’ve knocked on every piece of wood around me, but if the Vols can’t catch a cold this weekend, feel free to blame me.
They also rank highly nationally in other significant stats including doubles, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, and walks allowed.
Last time I mentioned these things, the wheels fell off the next time out. If it happens again, muzzle me. Actually, I’ll just muzzle myself.
What’s at Stake
I’ll get into Oklahoma specifically in a moment, but the big picture is becoming a little clearer in the SEC. Still, considering there are only three games left, the scenarios are numerous.
Georgia has clinched the regular season title with its weekend sweep of LSU. That series also almost certainly ended any chance for the Tigers to make the postseason. LSU would have to sweep Florida this week and make a deep run in the SEC Tournament (or win it for the automatic bid) to garner any consideration. If that holds, LSU will be the sixth defending national champion in 11 years to not make the NCAA field the following season.
South Carolina and Missouri are also essentially eliminated. Vandy and Kentucky are on the outside looking in, but can legitimately play their way in this weekend and with some success in the conference tournament.
That leaves the middle – and what a crammed mess that is.
The Vols are tied in 10th place with Oklahoma. The series winner this weekend will claim the higher standing and better seed in the SEC tourney. The top eight seeds get byes through the first round (with the top four getting a double bye). It’s going to be difficult for Tennessee to earn one of these spots, but not impossible. Ole Miss sits one game ahead, but took the season series against the Vols and thus the tiebreaker. Tennessee would have to sweep and Ole MIss lose two to gain that ninth spot. Or win two and the Rebels get swept.
Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Florida are two games ahead. The best scenario here is to somehow finish tied with the Bulldogs – who Tennessee swept. Sweeping the Sooners, along with MSU losing two of three to Texas A&M (or winning two and the Bulldogs getting swept) combined with the Ole Miss scenario would earn the Vols a bye.
Confused yet? There are also longshot cases for finishing tied (and by virtue of tiebreakers) ahead of Alabama and Auburn.
There’s a wild, one-in-a-million scenario where Tennessee could finish in the top four and earn the double bye.
What we do know is that last weekend’s results against Texas basically assured Tennessee of a spot in the NCAA Regionals two weeks from now. Getting swept this weekend and losing in the first round of the SEC could make for white-knuckle time on Selection Monday, but it should be locked in. The Vols will almost certainly get a two seed and be on the road, but there is a scenario where they could finish strong and get a hosting nod.
The Vols currently have the 32nd best RPI. Only 28 teams have more wins overall and considering the rigors of SEC play that’s pretty good. Factor in 20 more locked teams (counting mid-major tournament champions, and the Vols can legitimately claim a better stake than 16 other teams. Although Tennessee has played a comparatively weak non-conference schedule – especially in the mid-week, they have a 15-9 record against teams currently projected to make the field. That is near the very top of ALL teams. They will be in the field.
I should also slide in here that the Vols finished with a perfect mid-week record, the only SEC team to do so.
Now for the Sooners
I’ve rambled long enough about what’s at stake, but want to give you a little info about what the Vols (35-18, 13-14) are facing this weekend.
Please note, as is always the case for the last series of the year, the first game is set for Thursday.
First pitch for game one and Friday’s game two are set for 7:30 ET. The finale on Saturday will begin at 3:00 ET. All 3 can be streamed on SEC Network+.
Much like Kentucky was (so don’t get too excited), Oklahoma (31-18. 13-14) is struggling coming into this series. The Sooners have dropped three straight series to Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas, giving up 34 runs to the Razorbacks last week and 23 to the Gators the week before. Their staff ERA ranks 15th in the league at 6.88.Their team batting average is about 10 points higher than the Vols at .267, but they rank 13th in runs and 14th in home runs.
What do they do well? Run. Like Kentucky, the Sooners steal bases. A lot of bases. 106 of them, to be exact. Five guys in their lineup have at least 14 swipes with Camden Johnson leading the way with 24.
As mentioned before, free bases lead to runs. The Vols MUST throw strikes.
Who will be called on to throw those pitches remains a bit of a question. The safe bet would be staying with Kuhns to go out Thursday and Blanco on Friday.
That would be short rest for both of them, but it’s still six days. They should be fine.
The problem comes when you look at the SEC tournament next week. If the Vols stay below the eighth seed (a likely case even with a successful weekend), they would play on Tuesday. You’d like to have one of their three main arms ready to go for that one. Odds are high they would be playing Missouri or South Carolina – both very winnable games. The way it stands now, that would move them out to possibly play Mississippi State – who they swept earlier in the year.
Tennessee has a recent history of getting surprising great outings from guys deep on the staff in the SEC tourney. It could certainly happen again, but no one deep on the roster has shown that ability yet.
Given this, the Vols likely have to choose what’s more important: This weekend at Oklahoma or the tourney next week.
One possibility coach Josh Elander should consider is not throwing Kuhns at all this weekend. That only works if Mack is back and available to throw. If so, start Mack on Thursday. Come with Blanco on Friday. Based on the results in both our series and those across the league, if the Vols need a win in the finale on Saturday, come with Kuhns then. If slots in the standings are pretty well wrapped up, save Kuhns for Tuesday.
If Kuhns throws Thursday, he MIGHT be available again on short rest for Wednesday’s SEC game if the Vols win Tuesday. But it’s also possible that Kuhns could throw on Thursday and not again for more than two weeks. Rest is good, but you don’t want to go into the most important games of the season – the NCAA Regional – with rust.
If Mack is unable to throw again, all of this is out the window. You have to go with Kuhns, Blanco, and Johnny Wholestaff again and hope Mack can go Tuesday.
Something for Elander to consider. Should also be mentioned that all SEC teams destined for a regional (as many as 13) are in the same boat.
Should things stay true to season form, The Sooners will likely start LJ Mercurious (6-6, 5.62 ERA), Cameron Johnson (6-1, 3.53 ERA), and Cord Rager (3-3, 5.32 ERA).
At the plate, Johnson leads the regulars with a .320 average. Brendon Block is the only Sooner in double figure HRs with 10.