By J.T. CHADWELL
For this week’s Friday 5 we are going to look at some hot betting trends and records within the Southeastern Conference and some of Tennessee’s opponents for the upcoming 2026 season. All stats and records will be from the 2021 season and forward.
Who excels when favored?
You guessed it! Coming in the top spot, the Tennessee Vols lead the SEC, covering in just over 59% of their games when favored. Tennessee is 29-20 against the spread in those games, with an incredible margin of victory 22.3 points. Coming in right behind the Vols is Alabama, with a record of 34-25-2 as favorites for a 57.6% hit rate. This number for Alabama jumps to 69.7% as a home favorite. Here are two featured matchups this coming season to look to take advantage of based on these trends:
- September 19, 2026: Florida State (2-4-1 ATS as away underdog) @ Alabama (23-10-1 ATS as home favorite)
- November 28, 2026: Tennessee (9-5 ATS as away favorite) @ Vanderbilt (7-12 ATS as home underdog)
Which underdogs bark the loudest?
Keeping in mind that there are a handful of teams that have way more experience than others in this category, we find that Arkansas heads the SEC when it comes to being an underdog with a 59.4% (19-13) hit rate when catching points. The Hogs eke out Kentucky’s record of 18-13 on percentage points. More strikingly, when we look at being an underdog on the road, the Arkansas hit rate jumps to a whopping 68.8% (11-5). Vanderbilt (65.2%), Mississippi State (61.1%), and Kentucky (58.8%) also boast strong averages on the road. However, put these three teams at home and we do not see the same success. As home underdogs, Kentucky still comes in respectable at 58%, but Vanderbilt (36.8%) and Mississippi State (31.3%) fall drastically. Here are a couple featured matchups this season to take advantage of these trends:
- October 3, 2026: Vanderbilt (15-8-1 ATS as an away underdog) @ Georgia (11-20-1 as a home favorite)
- November 7, 2026: Arkansas (11-5 ATS as an away underdog) @ Auburn (11-14 ATS as a home favorite)
Where is the home field advantage the best?
When we start dissecting between home and away we get a little bit bigger samples of data. Overwhelmingly taking the two top spots in this category are Alabama (70.6% hit rate) and Texas (64.5% hit rate). Also noteworthy, Texas is 2-0 in the last five seasons when it’s a home underdog, and could have a chance to make it 3-0 early in the season against Ohio State. Here are a couple matchups to take advantage on for the upcoming season:
- October 17, 2026: Florida (9-14 ATS as an away team) @ Texas (20-11-2 ATS as a home team)
- October 24, 2026: Texas A&M (6-13-1 ATS as an away team) @ Alabama (24-10-1 ATS as a home team)
Who is most comfortable on the road?
It really doesn’t come as much of a surprise that Arkansas and Vanderbilt take the top two spots here. We featured them and their stellar record as road underdogs earlier in this article. I think the reason for this is simple. For the top SEC teams, the schedule week in and week out is very grueling. When you can catch a team like Arkansas or Vanderbilt at home, you are naturally going to take it easier and have less focus than if you are playing a top team in the conference. Arkansas and Vanderbilt are constantly catching good teams that are looking past them and focusing more on the bigger fish. Here are a couple matchups that may fit this pattern in the upcoming season:
- September 26, 2026: Vanderbilt (16-10-1 ATS on the road) @ Auburn (16-21 ATS at home) Auburn plays Tennessee the following week.
- November 21, 2026: Arkansas (13-7-1 ATS as a road team) @ Texas (18-11-2 ATS as a home favorite) This is a classic trap game for Texas with LSU the week before and Texas A&M six days later even though the records are similar.
Who can REALLY BARK as a dog?
The final trend for today is going to look nationwide across all of college football to see which teams make the most money winning games outright as an underdog. Taking the honor as the top dog in the entire country is BYU. Since 2021, BYU has a 50% hit rate winning games outright as an underdog. Some other notable teams are: Ohio (14 wins, 45.2%), Coastal Carolina (14 wins, 43.8%), Illinois (14 wins, 42.5%), Houston (13 wins), Texas Tech (12 wins, 46.2%), and Louisiana (12 wins, 46.2%). Here are some matchups to keep an eye on this upcoming season:
- September 7, 2026: Ohio (45.2% moneyline hit rate as underdog) @ Nebraska (64.7% moneyline hit rate as a favorite with a -0.9 average margin)
- October 10, 2026: Coastal Carolina (43.8% moneyline hit rate as an underdog) @ Marshall (67.5% moneyline hit rate as a favorite with an average margin of -1.0)
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