Valspar Championship Tip Sheet

By J.T. CHADWELL

RECAP

Golf betting can be hard and that was proven on Sunday.  Our pick of Ludvig Aberg looked like the winning pick for a large portion of the tournament, and then it all came crashing down on the back nine on Sunday. Sitting in the driver’s seat with a two- shot lead and a 245 yard approach shot out of the fairway on the par-5 11th, Aberg flared his No. 5 wood far to the right and into the water which led to an eventual bogey.  Aberg pulled out his driver at the short par-4 12th and once again splashed it in the water, this time making double bogey.  The tournament was over from there as Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick had taken an insurmountable lead from Aberg.  Another close call that ends in a loss bringing us down to 4.46 units of profit for the year so far.  It is only a 0.8 unit loss this week with the withdrawal of Collin Morikawa.

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS

• 2025, Viktor Hovland  (70/1) – Made two cuts with no top-20 finishes in the six prior events. 

• 2024, Peter Malnati (300/1)  – Made three of seven cuts with a pair of top-10 finishes coming into the Valspar.

• 2023, Taylor Moore (60/1) – Made five of seven cuts with three finishes in the top 15 coming into this event.

• 2022, Sam Burns (20/1) – Made three of six cuts with a pair of top-20s leading into this event.

• 2021, Sam Burns (75/1) – Made six of 10 cuts with two top-5 finishes prior to this event.

The Valspar Championship

The PGA stays in the state of Florida, moving west to the greater Tampa area for the Valspar Championship.  The Valspar has been more of a volatile tournament in terms of the type of winner that we see year in and year out.  The first thing that stood out for this week, similar to last week, is that current form isn’t really necessary.  Of the past five winners, all have missed at least two cuts early in the year and haven’t produced many top results.  The field strength here isn’t usually very strong, however this year we will see a few more of the top players, so things could be a little different this year.  The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is typically a tougher test that yields a higher than average winning score.  It is also a bit of an old-school PGA test in the fact that short game and accurate driving are the two most needed skills.  In today’s PGA, a lot of the better players focus on power and putting.  The predictive value based on past results for Copperhead is pretty average compared to the rest of the PGA Tour, so we will use it some in handicapping this week, but not put a huge focus on it. 

THE BETTING CARD

• JUSTIN THOMAS (23/1), .2 UNITS TO WIN 4.8 UNITS – Thomas loves this tournament and played much better than I expected him to last week coming off injury.  He has four top-10 finishes in eight trips here and I really think he wants to be holding a trophy soon to give him confidence heading into The Masters.
• JACOB BRIDGEMAN (23/1), .2 UNITS TO WIN 4.8 UNITS – Course fit play here.  Bridgeman has been red hot to start the year and should absolutely love this golf course. He sure loved it last year when he finished alone in third.
• RYO HISATSUNE (46/1), .125 UNITS TO WIN 5.87 UNITS – Hisatsune has only lost strokes to the field in putting twice, and around the greens once in his last five events. He gets some class relief in this field and finished tied for fourth here last year. 
• RICKY CASTILLO (61/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 4.65 UNITS – Another player who should love this golf course.  Castillo is a wonderful iron player who is playing some fantastic golf right now.  Yes he faded to 70th last weekend at Sawgrass, but that’s expected for a course like that your first time.
• MATT McCARTY (61/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 4.65 UNITS – I still think he gets a win sometime this year, and the putter has been acting quite kindly over the last six events. He has gained over 19 strokes to the field putting during that time.  Will the inconsistent irons and wedges be good or bad this week?  Let’s hope good. 
• TAYLOR MOORE (65/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 4.95 UNITS – I think this is a crazy number for a past winner of this event who almost won three weeks ago in Palm Beach and was inside the top 10 for 36 holes at TPC Sawgrass. The short game is looking great, the irons are inconsistent.
• AUSTIN SMOTHERMAN (67/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.1 UNITS – Smotherman didn’t get us across the line in Palm Beach, but absolutely willing to give him another shot.  He continues to be the hottest iron player on tour and has strung together some nice finishes.  Another great week last week at Sawgrass.  
• RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN (86/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 6.52 UNITS – Number grab here.  Tied for 22nd here in his maiden voyage.  This guy is one of the top 10 players under the age of 25 in the world.  It’s been a rocky start to his first full season on the PGA Tour, but there have been flashes.  He has the short game to win here, but it hasn’t been at its best lately. No way he should be 86/1.
• LEE HODGES (115/1), .05 UNITS TO WIN 5.8 UNITS – The top comp score for the Copperhead Course is TPC Twin Cities (95.8) where the 3M Championship is played.  Hodges won that tournament by seven shots a couple years back.  Add in the fact he tied the first-round lead last week and 115/1 is way too high.
• DAVIS RILEY (350/1), .025 UNITS TO WIN 8.77 UNITS – Everyone’s favorite longshot.  Davis either misses the cut by six or contends for a trophy every week it seems.  Riley oddly fits the profile of the past five winners very closely.  He;s had three missed cuts and a top 10 this season, just like Sam Burns and Pete Malnati, and Taylor Moore had two missed cuts instead of three.  Furthermore, Riley absolutely loves this golf course.  In four trips here, he has three top 20s and a pair of top 10, one of which was a solo second-place finish.
• ADAM SCHENK (625/1), .025 UNITS TO WIN 15.65 UNITS – Last flyer of the week, and again this price is just way too high for someone who can win golf tournaments.  He has a solo second-place finish at this golf course and a top 11 finish this season to go along with three missed cuts. Although he missed the cut last weekend, a Friday round of 70 will give him something to feed off of this week.