By J.T. CHADWELL
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It has been a bit since the last Chadwell Cheat Sheet, but we are back and ready to fire for the NCAA Tournament. This week we will break down some value plays to win each region, and make a value pick based on odds. Remember, at the Chadwell Cheat Sheet we do not pick favorites and we are always looking for value at much bigger numbers.
Let’s get into the region breakdowns for this year’s bracket.
EAST REGIONAL
Duke gets the overall top seed in the region and the entire tournament coupled with its top overall spot in the KenPom rankings. Duke finished the season 32-2, but saw some injuries affect its rotations during the ACC tournament. It was a less than stellar betting finish to the season for Duke, as (depending on the spread you took in the Clemson game) they finished 0-3 against the spread and almost took a loss in the quarterfinals to a hot Florida State team. The thing that stands out to me in this region is the firepower of the assembled programs. UCONN, Michigan State, Kansas, Louisville, and UCLA have all won national championships in the last 30 or so years. Throw in Rick Pitino coaching St. John’s and every one of the top eight seeds in the East have a national championship trophy either in their athletic department, or a coach with one. That alone gives me enough reason to fade Duke at -135 to win this region. Is Duke the best team in this region? Sure they are. But -135 is not a price I am willing to entertain for a team that sees a path of Ohio State (who almost beat Michigan last week), St. John’s/Kansas, and then Michigan State/UCONN.
East Value Pick: St. John’s +1100.
I can’t pass up this price on a quality team with a quality coach who has an outside chance of being the first coach to lead three teams to an NCAA Tournament trophy. Pitino will be fired up over the Red Storm’s seed number here. After winning the Big East tournament, and two of three matchups with UCONN this season, St John’s sees themselves three seed lines higher than the Huskies. The first-round matchup for the Red Storm should be a nice one for them. Yes Northern Iowa has had its share of tournament glory knocking off a one seeded Kansas team in the second round years back, but this Panthers team lost 12 games in a Missouri Valley Conference that was mediocre at best, finishing sixth in the regular season. Next up St John’s gets a Kansas team that finished the season in turmoil. If Darryn Peterson brings his A-game for the Jayhawks, it will be a quality game and close matchup. If he doesn’t, St. John’s advances to the Sweet 16 where the Johnnies will be far less than +1100 against the Blue Devils. We saw last year what happens when you punch Duke in the mouth. They don’t punch back. Get past that matchup and it sets up a nice hedge opportunity as the Red Storm would likely be favored, or slight underdogs against anyone else they would play.
Are they worth skipping Starbucks one day this week? South Florida, 150/1. The Bulls open as only five-point underdogs to Louisvlle, which suggests they could pull off a small upset. Their path to the Elite Eight would include two potentially over-seeded teams in Michigan State and UCONN and this South Florida team can really score. They swept the American Athletic Conference regular season and conference tournament titles. It might be worth throwing some loose change on them.
WEST REGIONAL
After running the table in the Big 12 tournament, Arizona takes the top seed in the West Region, and with good reason. As far as winning this tournament, the Wildcats have a lot of things working against them. Arizona sure feels like its will be the buzz team this year after its quality performances in the Big 12 tournament, and the buzz team almost always gets put out earlier than expected. The school’s tournament history the last 15 years has not been good either, and West Coast teams, for whatever reason, just do not win this tournament (The Wildcats were the last to do so in 1997). One thing not working against Arizona is its draw. The region overall looks fairly weak, and it’s possible a couple of the potential threats to Arizona like Arkansas and Purdue maybe peaked too early going on runs last week to win their conference tournament. One thing this region is lacking is defensive efficiency. Arizona leads the way at third in the nation and Gonzaga is not far behind at ninth. However, the other top seeds in this region do not defend. Purdue is 36th, Arkansas 48th, Wisconsin 51st, BYU 57th. I am a firm believer you have to defend to win this tournament so the value pick by default is…
Value Pick: Gonzaga +675.
The Zags have been here plenty of times so it is definitely not uncharted territory. Like the St John’s pick, Gonzaga draws a first round matchup with Kennesaw State, a team that did not expect to be here and finished sixth in its conference. A second-round matchup would likely see the Zags against BYU, who, much like Kansas, centers its team around a future high lottery pick player in AJ Dybantsa. Gonzaga would then most likely draw Purdue in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga can comfortably go eight deep and tts X Factor will be Tyon Grant-Foster coming off the bench. Foster had a season high 20 points off the bench in the West Coast Conference final against Santa Clara and has put together four double-digit scoring efforts in his last five games, If he can continue to compliment Graham Ike I think Gonzaga can make a run to the Elite Eight and get a matchup with Arizona. The further the Zags go, the more likely it is they get Braden Huff back as well.
Skip the Starbucks play of the region: Villanova, 100/1. Kevin Willard in his first season has turned things around quickly. The quality of wins isn’t really there for the Wildcats this season, but they got 25 of them, and regardless, that’s an accomplishment and winning is contagious. They would be overmatched by Arizona, but it’s not like those other Wildcats have the reputation of exceeding their expectations in tournament games.
MIDWEST REGIONAL
The top seed here is perhaps the most dangerous postseason team of the last 10 or 15 years, the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan looks ultra talented this year and was easily the best team in the nation through the first 10-15 games of the season. Michigan has also drawn a very favorable region in the bracket. Alabama lost Aden Holloway to an arrest, and Texas Tech is without its top player JT Toppin. That leaves Iowa State, Virginia, and Tennessee to derail the Wolverines in this region and I’m just not sure I see that happening. Iowa State has the best chance to do so, but at +290 it’s not enough to take the Cyclones now, as they would probably be very close to that number in a head to head matchup with Michigan. In short, Michigan probably has the easiest path to the Elight Eight of all the No. 1 seeds. While it may not be value the pick here is: Michigan -125.
Skip the Starbucks pick: SMU, 150/1. I am not sure I would take a longshot in this region, as it’s really hard to make a case for most of the teams in the Midwest, but if you’re going to try, then consider SMU. The Mustangs enter the postseason losing five of six, which isn’t good, but it means at one point they had a respectable 19-8 record. They have a winnable path to the Sweet 16 as eight-point favorites in the play in game. They have five players that average double digits, but defensively they rank 91st in efficiency. The silver lining in that is the teams they would play on their path to the Elite Eight all rank outside the top 30 in offensive efficiency. There is a reason they are 150/1, but the bottom part of this region does nothing to turn heads, so why not?
SOUTH REGIONAL
The final region of the bracket is the most wide open of the four. Florida comes in as the favorite at +160, but is coming off a beatdown at the hands of Vanderbilt, who the Gators could see again in the Sweet 16. There are some very pesky teams that play a variety of styles of basketball in this region. Defensive minded and gritty Houston comes in at +250, while up-tempo and offensive minded Illinois sits at +320. Vanderbilt is +1000 to keep the tables turned on Florida and upstart Nebraska comes in at +1500. All five of these teams rank in the top 15 in the nation in away game power ratings as well, so this should be a tightly contested region. Meanwhile, 24 teams in college basketball history have made the Final Four the year after winning a national championship, so it’s not the rarest of feats for Florida.
Value Pick: Illinois +320.
Illinois is another team that comes into this tournament in a bit of a lull, but that has never been a deciding factor when it comes to tournament success. Illinois has lost three of its last five, but the Illini have plenty of quality wins over the course of the season and a lot of those came in League play in the Big Ten, arguably the best conference this season. There are only seven teams that come into this year’s tournament with an offensive and defensive efficiency rating inside the top 30 and Illinois is one of them. Unfortunately their most likely Sweet 16 matchup is one of against another team with high efficiency at both ends, Houston. The fact that the price on these two teams is so close leads me to believe Illinois is very capable to take this region, as Florida as a +160 favorite is a fairly weak line.
Skip the Starbucks pick: Iowa +4000. I think Iowa comes into this tournament a bit under the radar, from both the public and the committee. They do not have the profile of a typical No. 9 seed. Iowa is a well rounded team ranking 31st in offensive efficiency, and 30th in defensive efficiency. A tough late schedule saw the Hawkeyes lose seven of their final 10 coming into the Tournament, but that was in the Big Ten and most of those games were on the road. A Sweet 16 matchup with Nebraska would have seemed unimaginable until the NIL era of college basketball, but Iowa won the first game of two in the rivalry matchup earlier in the season, so if they can knock off the Gators there is a path.
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