With a third of its 2026 season in the book, East Tennessee State has a dilemma on its hands when it comes to its defense, and giving up explosive plays.
I took a deep dive into the numbers, but before we go totally down the rabbit hole, let’s make sure all terms are defined. An explosive play is, you might have guessed, a play for significant yardage. Back in the day, we just called these “big plays” but I guess that wasn’t hyperbolic enough, so now they’re explosive plays or, sometimes, just “explosives.” Michael Bay would be thrilled. Is he a football fan?
Anyhoo…
For the purposes of this discussion, I used the definition of explosive plays established in this piece at State of the U, a website that covers the Miami Hurricanes. So, we’re looking at rushing plays that gain 12 or more yards, and pass plays for 16 or more yards.
Again, four games in the books for the Bucs, and in each, explosive plays have accounted for 50% or more of the opposition’s total offense. Sounds bad, but when you consider that explosives tend to represent 40-60% of total yardage, on average, not so alarming.
No, the dire data comes when we look at what happens drive by drive where the opposition has had an explosive play against ETSU.
Against Campbell, a 49-37 loss:
- Passes of 20 and 30 yards on the opening drive, with the latter for a TD
- A 26-yard run, and eventual TD
- A 50-yard pass, setting up a first-and-goal, leading to TD
- A 26-yard pass for the go ahead TD, 28-21
- Passes of 20 and 29 yards to set up first down in the red zone, and an eventual TD
- A 42-yard scramble by Kamden Sixkiller to set up first down in the red zone, then a 14-yard run also by Sixkiller that scored the game clinching TD
Against Tusculum, a 48-14 win:
- A 45-yard pass, leading to an eventual TD
- A 16-yard rush, with the drive ending in a punt
- A 24-yard rush, and another drive ending in a punt
- A rush of 16 yards, a pass of 18, and a drive that ended in a missed field goal
- A 24-yard pass, and a drive that ended on downs
- Runs of 21 and 57 yards, with the latter for a TD
Against North Carolina, a 35-3 loss:
- A 25-yard rush and 24-yard pass on the first TD drive
- A 16-yard pass, a 12-yard run, and a 26-yard TD catch
- Passes of 28 and 20 yards on a TD drive
- Two 25-yard passes on a TD drive
- A 15-yard run on a drive ending in a missed field goal
- Two 14-yard runs on a drive that ended the game
Against West Georgia, a 35-27 win:
- A 38-yard pass on drive bridging the first quarter/second quarter break, ending in the first Wolves TD
- A 24-yard pass, but the Wolves punted
- Pass plays of 30 and 21 yards, and a 15-yard run on the opening drive of the second half, which ended in a TD
- A pass of 23 yards for a first down inside the red zone, ending in go-ahead TD, making it 24-21
- Passes of 23 and 32 yards on the fourth quarter drive ending in a field goal
There’s a clear pattern here. That makes 23 combined drives by the first four ETSU foes where at least one explosive play occurred. Of those possessions, 16 ended in points, and two of the seven that did not yield points ended with a missed field goal. That number of scoring drives includes 15 that ended in touchdowns.
What about the truly explosive plays? The big Kabooms, as it were… plays that reaped 20 or more yards.
Opponents have had 19 drives where they gained 20-plus yards on at least one play. And on those the opposition has scored 16 times and posted 15 touchdowns. That means more than 84% of drives with an explosive play have resulted in points, including a staggering 78.9% where the possession ended in a TD.
That’s not good.
That’s worrisome. Alarming, even. Especially as the Bucs head into Southern Conference play.
Now, to be fair, the Buc offense is holding its own when it comes to generating explosive plays. Through four games, ETSU has 34 explosives, gaining 915 total yards, good for a little more than 56% of total output.
But, the Bucs can’t just assume the offense is always going to click. For reference, see the entire second half against West Georgia, with the exception of the record-setting 88-yard touchdown pass. Will Healy said it himself after the game, asking the rhetorical question, “can you win games when you’re not playing great on the offensive side of the ball?”
Definitely something to watch as the season continues.