By J.T. CHADWELL
RECORD
Last Week: 3-3 (Won the Sicko Special)
Overall: 35-21 (5-2 Sicko Special)
RECAP
It was a 3-3 week last week, but if felt as if it could have been so much more. Boise State was one of the roughest losses of the season as the Broncos led 28-3 at half before Texas State scored 36(!!) unanswered points. Mississippi State also could not hang on after covering the 21.5 for pretty much the entire game. Unfortunately the Bulldogs could not find a touchdown and ended up missing the cover by one possession. Enough about last week, as we head into November 7th, a day all fans have long had marked on their calendar. With so many big games this weekend, we will look more at analysis for these huge matchups.
All times are Eastern.
BYU @ Utah (Noon, ABC)
First up this week is the Holy War, a matchup where BYU has won three in a row. Interestingly, these teams have played eight times since 2015, and neither team has covered the spread in back-to-back meetings (BYU covered the spread in the last matchup). I think the thing that stands out the most when looking at this matchup is Utah’s ability on defense to hunker down and play its best in the most important situational downs. Utah boasts a top 10 red zone defense, while BYU barely cracks the top 70 in red zone offense. The Utes also are top 15 in fourth down defense while BYU has only converted five of 12 fourth downs this season. Finally, looking at the over/under trends in this matchup, the under is 7-3 over the last 10 meetings.
THE PICK: UNDER 49.5
Texas @ Missouri (Noon, ESPN)
Texas opened the week as a 5.5 point favorite and that line has quickly faded down to 2.5. Texas comes to Columbia where Missouri is 6-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog over the last five years, and 28-5 straight up at home over that same time span. Steve Sarkisian in his career is 13-22 against the spread on the road. We don’t have much to go off this season for Texas, as this is only its second road game of the season (this could be problematic in itself), but in the game at Tennessee, the Longhorns could not get the run game going, and Missouri’s defense only allows 1.8 yards per rush at home. It is very difficult to go on the road and get a result in the SEC, much less back-to-back road results.
THE PICK: MISSOURI +3.5
Alabama @ LSU (3:30., ABC)
Our second rivalry matchup on this week’s sheet, and this one is between two teams who know each other really well. That typically favors the defense more than the offense. And when we look at the head-to-head matchups over the past 16 years, that is quite evident. The over has only hit four times in the last 16 matchups and there’s no reason to deviate from that here. We saw how much Keelon Russell struggled on the road in Neyland Stadium, and now he goes to an equally difficult venue against an LSU defense that has played really well this year. Alabama over the last three games has been averaging a full yard less per rush than compared the rest of the season, and if that continues, the Tide will be forced into obvious passing downs against one of the top five defenses in the FBS when it comes to rushing the quarterback. For that reason, we will pay a little juice to get this to a nice even number, but find a boost on your preferred sportsbook to offset it.
THE PICK: ALABAMA TEAM TOTAL UNDER 24.5
Georgia @ Ole Miss (7:30, ABC)
This matchup looks to be a bit of a struggle between what Georgia has done in two road games this season, and what Georgia typically does on the road against high powered offenses. In those two road games so far this season, the Bulldogs have had a better turnover margin, allowed less yards per rush, and less points per play than they have at home. However, Georgia has always struggled against high powered offenses with mobile quarterbacks who can make plays outside the pocket. Trinidad Chambliss fits that mold perfectly. Georgia has a top 20 run defense, but its pass defense is nothing special. I think if Ole Miss can protect Chambliss against this pass rush, and move him out of the pocket intentionally to give him more time to throw, they can keep pace.
THE PICK: OLE MISS +3.5
Kentucky @ Tennessee (6:15, ESPN)
Too many points (Kentucky +6.5) in a rivalry game here. Kentucky has proven all season it belongs in the SEC and I expect a close one again this week. Will Stein has been nothing short of amazing in his first year at Kentucky. The red flag for the Wildcats is that, in three road games they are giving up over a full yard per rush more than they do at home. They cannot afford to let Tennessee ground and pound them for four quarters. The glass half full look for the Wildcats: in those same three road games they have a +2.7 turnover margin. I think if Kentucky can avoid the mistakes and force a turnover themselves they can keep this to a one-possession game. Similar to the Alabama game, we will pay a little extra juice to get a nice even number, but there are lots of boosts available to offset that.
THE PICK: KENTUCKY +7.5
Miami @ Notre Dame (7:30, NBC/Peacock)
The biggest matchup of the week, and sometimes when the obvious thing to do is zig, you must zag. That’s what we’re going to do here. Miami is coming off three consecutive shootouts, so the obvious look here is to the over. However, I think Notre Dame matches up well against this Miami offense. Plus, this is a massive matchup for Notre Dame. This is the last chance the Irish will have to really impress the playoff committee, as their three remaining games pretty much carry no weight (Boston College, SMU, and Syracuse). I do not think the playoff committee would leave a two-loss Notre Dame out, but is Marcus Freeman really wanting to take that chance with its best win being the first week of the season against Wisconsin, who wasn’t playing near as well then? I don’t think so. I think this is a tight game early that opens up in the second half.
THE PICK: UNDER 28.5 1st Half.
Sicko Special of the Week
Air Force @ Army UNDER 45.5 (7:30, CBS/Paramount+)
Last week we talked about how Rutgers’ overs were the most profitable angle in college football, but this one rivals that. Service game unders have long been profitable, and in this one we get a respectable total of 45.5. Both these teams know each other’s offenses very well, and that is about 90% of being able to stop the flexbone and Wing-T. Second that with the fact neither team really passes the ball, and the clock will be running all game long. All we have to do is avoid the big scoring plays.