By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
So that’s what it feels like to have a tip come through in the clutch on a Sunday! We were all over this tournament from the start with five of the six golfers on our betting card for the Rocket Classic making the cut and four finishing in the top 15. In the end it was Michael Thorbjornsen coming through with a 63 on Sunday and a closing birdie to slam the door shut on the chasers, and a 5.85 unit profit for I-81 for the week. It marks the second week in a row (and we could be looking at a third) that a player under the age of 25 has notched his first career PGA victory. The victory for Thorbjornsen feels justified, as he has been close as a chaser many times already in his short time on the PGA Tour. The regular season now comes to an end as the PGA heads to Sedgefield Country Club, another longstanding course on tour, for the Wyndham Championship.
Past Wyndham Championship Winners, Odds, and Trends
- 2025, Cameron Young (50/1) – Made eight cuts with two top-5 finishes in his 10 events prior.
- 2024, Aaron Rai (35/1) – Made the cut in all 10 events coming in, with six top-20 finishes and four top-10s.
- 2023, Lucas Glover (80/1) – Made five cuts with three top 10s in the 10 events prior.
- 2022, Tom Kim (35/1) – Made nine cuts with five top 10s in his 10 events prior.
- 2021, Kevin Kisner (50/1) – Made six cuts in his 10 prior events, posting a pair of top-10 finishes.
Wyndham Championship
For the final stop before the FedEx Cup Playoffs, we head to Greensboro, NC and Sedgefield Country Club. Sedgefield has been a part of the PGA season for many years, and similar to Detroit Golf Club, requires a very specific skill set to be successful. However, we see a complete 180 degree turn in the type of skill set Sedgefield requires compared to what Detroit requires. This week we will be looking for accurate hitters off the tee, where distance and long bombers of the golf ball do not get any sort of advantage. As a matter of fact, Sedgefield is one of the bottom five courses on tour in regards to distance advantage.
The Betting Card
- JACKSON KOIVUN (24/1) .2 UNITS TO WIN 4.8 UNITS – The future is now and Koivun can still make the FedEx Cup with a good finish here. In baseball, we hear the term five-tool player used for the best of the best. Koivun is a five-tool player on the PGA Tour. His putter, short game around the greens, iron play, and total driving are all way above average. Most impressively, at 21 years old, the intangibles he possesses above the shoulders are already at a much higher level than most. His bogey free 66 on Sunday at the 3M after entering the final round with a three-shot lead was ultra impressive. I could easily see him running it back this week.
- BEN GRIFFIN (27/1) .2 UNITS TO WIN 5.4 UNITS – A little bit of a number grab here for a guy quietly playing really well, really consistently. Griffin has only missed one cut since April and has amassed five top-20 finishes and two top-5 finishes during that time. His driving accuracy has been a bit inconsistent, but overall he is a fairly straight driver of the golf ball. The putter has been really good, and he has gained on approach in seven straight events. Finally, he now comes to a course where he has finished top 15 in three out of four trips, with two of those in the top 10.
- HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (32/1) .2 UNITS TO WIN 6.4 UNITS – Matsuyama is hot right now, and has posted back to back top fives and it’s largely in part to his ability to control his driver again. If he does that again for the third straight week he will most certainly contend here. Matsuyama has been feast or famine at this golf course in his career with five missed cuts and four top-20 finishes. He seems to be in good form so hopefully he feasts this week.
- TOM KIM (43/1) .125 UNITS TO WIN 5.37 UNITS – A little surprised at how high this price is for Kim. His approach numbers are among the best of the best since May, and he is an incredibly accurate driver of the golf ball. Oh yeah, almost forgot to mention, he shot 61 here on Sunday to win back in 2022.
- DAVIS THOMPSON (62/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 4.65 UNITS – On first review, I didn’t think this was really a course fit for Thompson. However, by digging in more, we find that he has posted three straight top 25s here and has improved his finishing position each time, with the most recent last year being a tie for 11th. Couple that with Thompson’s recent form (T7 at the 3M and a T8 last week), and 62/1 seems like a fair number for a streaky player like him.
- SUNGJAE IM (63/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 4.72 UNITS – Horse for course play here. He is 63/1 because he cannot hit his irons like he could in his prime. He hasn’t gained over a shot on approach in a very long time. But Im was pretty solid last week, tying for 15th at the Rocket Classic, and gained strokes in all four aspects of his game. His driving accuracy and elite short game around the greens fit this course perfectly. He has finished top 30 in six of his seven starts here and three of those were top-10 finishes.
- BUD CAULEY (66/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 4.95 UNITS- Another fairly high number for a player in great form. Cauley won the Canadian Open last month and has followed it up nicely with two top 20s since then. If you’re not familiar with Cauley’s story, it is worth looking up. Cauley was involved in a horrific car crash that very nearly ended his career. Prior to the injuries, Cauley loved this golf course, posting four top-25 finishes in seven trips.
- CHRIS KIRK (72/1) .1 UNITS TO WIN 7.2 UNITS- Kind of like Davis Thompson last week, maybe we catch lightning in a bottle here. Kirk can be quite streaky with his ball striking and for most of last week he led the Rocket Classic in total ball striking. His tournament was derailed with a double bogey on the 13th hole on Sunday when he caught some horrific, unfortunate lies in the rough. If not for those, Kirk would’ve had a chance to win. He finished tied for fifth here last year, and if he can just roll in some putts this week, he could be near the top again.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOTS
- Luke Clanton 120/1
- Matt McCarty 130/1
- Lucas Glover 210/1
- Kris Ventura 210/1
- Brian Campbell 900/1