By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
I cant believe we are in 2026 and still talking about Brandt Snedeker winning a golf tournament, but here we are. What an awesome weekend for the President’s Cup Captain to win his 10th career tournament on the PGA Tour. One of these days we will make a pick on someone who has a hot putter. I think you could argue Austin Eckroat hit it better than anyone last week, but he just could not make a putt to save his life. Four misses inside 10 feet alone on the back nine on Saturday pretty much ended any chance he had on Sunday. Shout out to Tip Sheet favorite Kristoffer Reitan for taking down the Signature Event at Quail Hollow last week, too. I really thought he would thrive on some of these longer PGA courses, and he was stones on the back nine on Sunday. I’m certain we will see another mention of Reitan later on in the PGA Championship picks, and many more tip sheets to come.
PAST PGA CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS, ODDS, AND TRENDS
- 2025, Scottie Scheffler (4/1) – 5 of 9 top 10s and a win in the nine events prior
- 2024, Xander Schauffele (14/1) – 5 of 9 top 10s and a win in the nine events prior
- 2023, Brooks Koepka (21/1) – Win on LIV Tour and tied for second at The Masters
- 2022, Justin Thomas (15/1) – 5 of 8 top 10s in the eight events prior
- 2021, Phil Mickelson (250/1) – 3 of 8 T25 in the eight events prior
PGA Championship at Aronimink
We head to Philadelphia this week for the second major of the year, hosted by Aronimink Golf Club. Given the current state of golf and after looking at the past five winners of the PGA Championship, this week’s card will feature betting in the without Scheffler/Rory McIlroy/Cameron Young/Jon Rahm market. All trends point to one of the top three more than likely winning this event, but I think there is some good value if you take these guys out of the equation. Aronimink is not a long golf course and they have had some rain over the last few days, so we could see some fairly soft conditions. This calculation a lot of times results in some pretty low scoring. While course fits and compatibilities are never to be ignored, the much higher importance in majors visiting courses not regularly played is current form. This week’s card will rely heavily on guys in very good form as of late, and a few guys that always come ready to win a major regardless of form.
THE BETTING CARD WITHOUT SCHEFFLER/MCILORY/RAHM/YOUNG
- TOMMY FLEETWOOD (17.5/1) .215 UNITS TO WIN 3.97 UNITS – We kick the week off with fan favorite Fleetwood. After a rough couple of weeks prior to the Truist, Fleetwood seems to have found form again. He gained in all four aspects at the Truist en route to a top 5 finish. Fleetwood consistently ranks in the top 10 in the world in total strokes gained, and strokes gained tee to green, so getting this price in this market seems generous. He also shot the low round of the day TWICE back in 2018 on this golf course. Had he not opened with 71, he probably would’ve challenged for a win that week.
- COLLIN MORIKAWA (24/1) .15 UNITS TO WIN 3.75 UNITS – We continue this week with a past PGA Championship winner. I think the lingering back issues have subsided for the most part, so I am comfortable jumping on Morikawa here. Over the last six months, Morikawa is number 1 in approach, and the only player better tee to green in this market is Matt Fitzpatrick.
- BROOKS KOEPKA (27/1) .175 UNITS TO WIN 4.9 UNITS – The win is coming. Look at Koepka’s comments following his top ten in Myrtle Beach last week. He is having fun playing golf again and he is striking the ball at the level no one else but he and very select few others can. Koepka’s putter always performs better in majors, can he finally find a hot putter this week? He finished top 20 here in 2018 at the BMW, breaking 70 in all four rounds.
- KURT KITAYAMA (67/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.1 UNITS – Kitayama has a knack for showing up in bigger stops along the season on the PGA Tour, but has seemed to struggle more so in majors. The lone bright spot? A fourth-place event at this same event back in 2023. Now Kitayama comes into this year’s PGA Championship on the heels of three straight top 20 finishes, and he ranks 10th in approach over the last three months. Kitayama will need a high GIR% this week to contend, but he should love the golf course.
- JJ SPAUN (68/1) .125 UNITS TO WIN 8.62 UNITS – JJ gets the top spot on the card this week at these odds. Spaun quietly rose to the fourth-ranked player in the world last year, and won the U.S. Open at Oakmont. Following a big dip in form at the start of the season, Spaun is again quietly putting together nice results (win and 3 top 25s in last 5 starts). He ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained approach and tee to green when sorted over the last three months, six months, and 12 months. I fully expect Spaun to play well again this week.
- GARY WOODLAND (76/1) .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.77 UNITS – We will continue to ride the hot hand this week. While long term numbers don’t put Woodland in the mix, his approach numbers and strokes gained off the tee over the last five events is hard to ignore. Another past major winner in great form that could surprise at a big number.
- KRISTOFFER REITAN (84/1) – Told you he would make another appearance. Riding the hot hand of my favorite player. Reitan is a phenomenal putter to go with his length. He just put a new putter in the bag last week at the Truist. The result? Six strokes gained on the field and second in putting for the week. As many DP World Tour graduates do, Reitan struggled early on in his inaugural PGA Tour season. Now, he has made five cuts in a row, finished tied for 41st in his first trip to Augusta, has accumulated four top 15s, missed a playoff by a shot at the Zurich, and won a Signature Event. This guy is a top talent that plays weekend golf like most pros dream of (check his final round at the Soudal Open last year, his first DP World Tour victory). And speaking of that victory, he followed it up with a tie for second the next week.
- ALEX FITZPATRICK (100/1) – Let’s ride the hot hand again. Simply put, at 100/1, his tee to green, and total strokes gained numbers are too much to ignore. He is riding a white hot wave of form and no reason to stop here.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOT PICKS
- CASEY JARVIS (325/1) – Form has cooled off a bit, but he can really play. Showed flashes last week in Myrtle Beach and can take it deep with the best of them. He will need scoring conditions this week.
- MIKAEL LINDBERG (550/1) – Couldn’t believe this number. He is coming off a DP World Tour victory and another recent tie for third. He is top 10 in the world in strokes gained tee to green and approach over the last six months. Absolutely worth taking a flyer here.