By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
I thought that the victory by Wyndham Clark at the U.S. Open might’ve turned our fortunes a little bit, but I was wrong once again. And once more at the Scottish Open, we were in fantastic position heading into Sunday and our three chances to hit (Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Chris Gotterup) all played terribly and we never really had a chance at cashing a ticket. It did not help that Tom Kim turned back the clock (crazy to say given he is only 24) and channeled his 2022 Wyndham Championship Sunday round. Kim has been on the upswing as far as his game goes, and it all clicked this weekend and he notched his fourth career PGA victory. More impressively, in those four wins, Kim has shot final rounds of 61, 64, and 66 twice to separate himself from the field. As best I can tell, no other PGA player has ever accomplished that feat before the age of 25. He picked a great week to find form, as we now head south from Scotland for the final major of the year, The Open Championship where Kim will find a golf course that perfectly fits his game.
Past Open Championship Winners, Odds, and Trends
- 2025, Scottie Scheffler (5/1) – Finished in the top 10 in each of the 10 events heading in, with three wins, including the PGA Championship.
- 2024, Xander Schauffele (12/1) – Nine top-20 finishes and a win in the 10 events prior.
- 2023, Brian Harman (110/1) – Made six cuts and finished in the top 15 four times in the 10 events prior.
- 2022, Cameron Smith (25/1) – Posted four top-15 finishes including a win in the 10 events prior.
- 2021, Collin Morikawa (35/1) – Had five top-15 finishes with a win in the 11 events prior.
The Open Championship
The final major of the year heads south from Scotland down to Royal Birkdale Golf Club, a long-running host in the rotation of courses for this event. Open Championship setups are typically a great overall test and almost always bring the best players in the best form to the top of the leaderboard. Each of the last five winners of this tournament had at least four top 15 finishes in their 10 events prior to playing the final major of the season, and four of the past five Open winners had a win in the lead-up to this event. This will disqualify anyone who hasn’t been in form.
Secondly, there are no tricks or questions about what you need to do to win here. The fairways are small, the pot bunkers are penal, and the fescue rough is definitely not the place to be. Driving accuracy and ability to get up and down from around the greens are of the highest priority this week. So many times on the PGA tour we look for the bombers who can be closer and we couldn’t be further from that this week. Lastly, we have some past data to go off for this golf course, as it has held the 2017 and 2008 Open Championships. Some notable finishes from 2017 include Haotong Li (solo in 3rd), Rory McIlroy (t-4th), Alex Noren (t-6th), and Brooks Koepka (t-6th). Jordan Spieth was the winner of the 2017 Open, but he was playing much better back then. Both times the course favored strongly accurate drivers of the golf ball.
Now, let’s take a look at the outright market. This will be the first tournament in a very long time that we see the odds even out at the top of the market. Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy still top the odds board, but the variance between the two is much smaller. We have seen as many as seven or eight points separate these two, but this week it will be less than two. Scheffler currently sits at +620, while McIlroy is at +770. Of the two, I would definitely favor Rory, but at a golf course like this +770 is still too low to play him. Jon Rahm (+1700) and Fitzpatrick (+1900) come in behind these two. Rahm cannot currently put four rounds together in a single tournament. Last week at the Scottish Open, his second, third, and fourth rounds were good enough to win, but he shot himself out of the tournament in the first round with an opening 3-over par score. We have talked about Fitzpatrick a ton this year and I would expect him to contend for this trophy just like he has contended for many trophies this year. Time to get into this week’s selections.
THE BETTING CARD
- MATT FITZPATRICK (+1900), .25 UNITS TO WIN 4.75 UNITS – Going right back to Fitzpatrick even though his Sunday golf last week wasn’t great. The putter was cold, but he still hit it fantastic. I think he is the best play this week to get someone into contention to give yourself some options to add to your ticket halfway through the week. If he makes putts, there is no question he will be right there at the end.
- ROBERT MacINTYRE (+4000), .15 UNITS TO WIN 6 UNITS – A great course fit who loves links golf, and played beautifully in his home national open last week. With the confidence he has coming in, he will be live to take down his first major. He will have to hit his driver a little better than last week, but he’s normally a pretty accurate driver and has a great short game that should fit this course nicely.
- JUSTIN ROSE (+4300), .15 UNITS TO WIN 6.45 UNITS – Rose is one of the select few making their fourth Open Championship start at Royal Birkdale. As an amateur in 1998, Rose finished tied for fourth. He has tied for second twice at other venues in the Open. He has a win already this year and has finished in top 25 in four of the last five tournaments in which he has played. He took last week off to sharpen his preparation for this event specifically. Rose doesn’t have many more opportunities to truly contend and you have to think he will be extra motivated to try and get one more major at the place where it all started for him.
- VIKTOR HOVLAND (+4100), .15 UNITS TO WIN 6.15 UNITS – Nice price for a guy that most would argue is likely to win an Open Championship at some point in his career. Hovland is probably the most skilled and decorated player to not have a major to his name. He has three top 15 finishes in five trips to the Open Championship and has finished in the top 15 in three of his last four events this season with one win to his name. His short game is massively improved and his strokes gained approach over the last four events is among the top 10 on the tour. He is also the most accurate driver of the golf ball during this span of those 10.
- RUSSELL HENLEY (+5400), .1 UNITS TO WIN 5.4 UNITS – Every year at The Open, we get a contender that maybe we wouldn’t normally consider on a links type course. For this year’s version let’s go with Henley. He fits the mold of the past winners of this event, and the course should fit his game brilliantly. It might’ve taken him a while to figure out links golf, but he has finished top 10 in the last two Opens. If this same field was playing in the states he would probably be 35- or 40-1.
- TOM KIM (+6200), .1 UNITS TO WIN 6.2 UNITS – It was the battle of the Kims for this spot, but Tom gets the nod over Si Woo due to Si Woo’s poor performances in majors. This Kim has found his stride over the last month and a half and now gets a golf course he should relish. We have already gave Kim his flowers earlier in this article, so now it’s time to cash a ticket on him.
- AARON RAI (+10000), .1 UNITS TO WIN 10 UNITS – Last play for the week, and strictly a number grab here. We stick with the theme of good iron players who can drive it accurately. Rai has already won a major this year, so winning two for a player of his caliber would be unlikely, but he has a fantastic place to do it and 100/1 is plenty enough to make me bite. Even since his win at the PGA Championship, Rai has posted three of his five events in the top 30, so his form is holding quite nicely.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOT PICKS
- Sam Bairstow 2000/1
- Stewart Cink 1150/1
- Francesco Molinari 925/1
- Padraig Harrington 850/1
- Kota Koneko 575/1
- Keita Nakajima 425/1
- Lucas Herbert 275/1