By J.T. CHADWELL
It’s been a wild tournament so far, but we’re finally into the positive overall. If you’ve been betting with us since the World Cup began, you’re up 2.1 units overall on our average and high risk plays.
SPAIN VS AUSTRIA
A game in the knockout stage is better than no game in the knockout stage, even if that means drawing Spain in the opening round. Even though both these teams come from Europe, they haven’t met since 2009. That’s a good thing for Austria, as some of these players weren’t born back then, and can’t remember the things Spain has done to them in the past (three of the five most recent head-to-heads were 4-0, 5-1, and 9-0 to Spain). Austria will be up against it here and must play the defensive game of their life to stay in this match.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Spain to advance AND Spain race to 3 corners (-340)
- Average risk play: Spain moneyline AND Mikel Oyarzabal to score or assist (-110)
- High risk play: Spain to win 2-0 or 3-0 (+240)
PORTUGAL VS CROATIA
When two legends of the game take the field, you only hope it happens later in the knockout stage than this. In what is probably the final World Cup for both Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) and Luka Modric (Croatia), one will be sent home quite early. Portugal possess so much quality in the midfield that there is no reason it shouldn’t hold a big advantage here until you look at past performances in situations like these. Portugal seem to always fall short, while Croatia almost always outplays its odds, making it all the way to the semifinals in the 2022 Cup. I would expect a tight, close game here, as these teams have played three times in the last 18 months and all three have been close. Each team won by the same 2-1 score once, and the other match ended in a 1-1 draw, which is where we land for this crucial matchup.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Croatia +1.5 (-310)
- Average risk parlay: Both teams to score YES AND Portugal to have 3+ shots on target (+102)
- High risk play: 3 way moneyline DRAW (+260) or 1-1 Correct Score (+550)
SWITZERLAND VS ALGERIA
When the bracket doesn’t get drawn to form, we get some exciting matchups early on in the knockout stage. Unfortunately, the flip side of that usually means there is a stinker somewhere in there, like this match between the Algerians and the Swiss. Neither team has any chance of making it to the finals and this will be like a first-round NCAA Tournament matchup between a 7 seed and a 10 seed. Switzerland is better, but if we follow the trends we have seen in European teams facing African and South American teams, Algeria will be tough to crack, and its defense is quite good. Switzerland is yet to see a team from either country, can it buck the trend for the UEFA teams?
- Low risk parlay toss in: Algeria +1.5 goals (-425)
- Average risk parlay: Under 1.5 1st half goals AND Under 2.5 game total goals (-125)
- High risk play: Switzerland to win 1-0 or a 1-1 draw (+210)
Record
Low risk: 65-17
Average risk: 40-42 (minus 3.3 units)
High risk: 24-57-1 (plus 5.4 units)
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