By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Too bad we opted for the regular betting market last week. Si Woo Kim and Sam Burns both had very respectable weeks, but they didn’t hold a candle to Scottie Scheffler, who won the St. Jude by nine shots, and gave us a stark reminder as to why we were betting the “without Scheffler” market for many weeks during the season. The rest of the field looks to be in trouble in the final two playoff events of the year, as the FedEx Cup rolls into St. Louis and Bellerive Country Club for the BMW Championship.
Past BMW Championship Winners, Odds, And Trends
- 2025, Scottie Scheffler (2.5/1) – Made the cut in each of his 10 events coming in, with 10 top-10 finishes (!) and four wins.
- 2024, Keegan Bradley (80/1) – Made the cut in nine of 10 events coming in, with two top-20 finishes including a top-5 finish.
- 2023, Viktor Hovland (16/1) – In his 10 events prior, made the cut six times, finishing in the top 20 in each of those events and winning twice.
- 2022, Patrick Cantlay (15/1) – Made the cut nine times with seven top-10s and a win in his 10 events prior.
- 2021, Patrick Cantlay (25/1) – Made seven cuts, finished in the top 25 in all seven of those tournaments, and carded a win in his 10 events prior.
BMW Championship
Everyone who qualified for the BMW this week is officially qualified for every signature event next season. Only 50 players tee it up this week, so the field is limited with options. This means our betting card will be pretty scarce for the week. As mentioned, Mr.. Scheffler was kind enough to remind us why the outright market without him exists last week, so we will gladly oblige again this time. Bellerive Country Club has hosted a few PGA events prior to this year’s BMW, with 2018 being the most recent. Prior to that, its last hosted PGA event was in 2008, so not a lot to go off of in course history. Looking at the trends of past winners, however, the BMW has really put a focus on recent form within the three to six months prior to the event. Therefore, our focus will be mainly on longer players who have been in great form.
The Betting Card (Without Scottie Scheffler)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (17/1) .325 units to win 5.85 units – Not a bad price for arguably the second or third best player on the Tour. Fitzpatrick got off to a slow start in Memphis, but jumped all the way to a tie for third until he finished the round bogey-double bogey. Nonetheless, he is still a main contender every week and his game transforms to just about any golf course. More than fair odds here for probably the top player in the non-Scheffler market.
- Chris Gotterup (19.5/1) .25 units to win 5.12 units – Another player that finished bogey-double bogey in Memphis. Gotterup was in the top 10 most of the week before fading to tie for 30th place on the final two holes. Gotterup has a game that should fit this course and has been one of the top five to seven players all season long.
- Wyndham Clark (26/1) .20 units to win 5.4 units – Clark continued his great form last week in Memphis finishing in a tie for fifth. TPC Southwind wasn’t playing super easy but Clark only made four bogeys all weekend. Make a few more birdies this week and he will certainly be near the top.
- Jake Knapp (32/1) .15 units to win 4.95 units – Knapp is starting to get healthier after a wrist injury sidelined him for a few events. Another guy who spent the better part of the week inside the top 10, and he eventually finished tied for 7th. Knapp’s current form looks good and this course should fit his liking.
- Gary Woodland (60/1) .075 units to win 4.57 units – Room for one more on the card, so taking yet another stab at a player whose finishing position was way worse than the quality of his golf. Woodland made two bogeys and a double bogey in the final five holes on Sunday to wreck what would’ve been a top-25 finish. Woodland is one of few with experience at this golf course that will be in the field this week, and it wasn’t bad. He finished tied for sixth and entered the day only three shots off the lead.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOTS
- JT Poston (84/1)
- Nico Echavarria (110/1)