By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Boom! For the second year in a row, we come out on top at Torrey Pines. Justin Rose was absolutely phenomenal all tournament long and never looked like a loser. Some decent finishes for some of the others on the card as well (Gerard T11, Matsuyama T-11th, Nicolai Hojgaard T-22nd). The Rose victory put us up 4.25 units for the week, giving us a total of 3.55 units for the season. Former East Tennessee State Buccaneer Seamus Power had a very nice showing this week as well. Power held in the top three for a good part of the tournament before fading to finish tied for 11th. Still a very solid week for Seamus and hopefully this is a sign of things to come this season for the Irishman.
Waste Management at TPC Scottsdale
It’s the week of the Super Bowl which only means 1 thing on the PGA Tour. It is time for what most would consider the most exciting stop on tour that is not a major. The combination of risk-reward shots coming in the final four holes, combined with the excitement of the 16th hole, makes TPC Scottsdale one of the best Sunday finishes when the tournament is close. Scottie Scheffler is in the field this week, and this might be his best course, so once again we will be diving into the betting market without Scottie Scheffler. Since COVID, Scottie has won twice, tied for third, tied for seventh, and tied for 25th. This week we will be looking for above average putters who have shown positive strokes gained tee to green over the last 3-6 months.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025: Thomas Detry (90/1) – Three top-20 finishes and no missed cuts in the prior six starts. Only lost strokes putting in one of those six events.
- 2024: Nick Taylor (150/1) – A top 10 and two top 25s and one missed cut in the prior seven starts. Gained strokes putting in all seven starts.
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (12/1) – Five straight top-15 finishes coming in, with a second-place finish. Lost strokes putting in one of those events.
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (25/1) – Four top 20s and three top 10s in the prior six events. Lost a stroke putting in only one of those events.
- 2021: Brooks Koepka (45/1) – Three straight missed cuts coming in, but two top 10s prior to the missed cuts. Did not lose strokes putting in any of those events.
COURSE HISTORY AND SETUP
TPC Scottsdale has long been a staple of the PGA Tour. It is a par 71 contested at 7,261 yards, which in the desert isn’t an overly long course so distance isn’t at a prime here. In the past, players like Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler have had lots of success here. Both have very good short games around the greens, so chipping and putting will be at a premium. Players will be making the switch from poa greens to Bermuda greens this week, so we will also be looking for players who putt well on that kind of surface. TPC Scottsdale is a course that really does not favor one type of player, so short game form is what we will focus on. Key stats we will be looking for this week:
- Strokes gained putting over the last 6-8 events
- Strokes gained around the greens over the last 6-8 events
- GIR Percentage
THE BETTING CARD
Scottie Scheffler is on another planet right now and this is his best course over the length of his time on the PGA Tour. With nothing really standing out in the outright markets without Scottie, we switch up the strategy a little bit this week with a placement round robin (3×6). In a 3×6 round robin, we are taking six selections in three-leg parlay increments and placing 20 three-leg parlay bets out of the six selections. Here are the selections for this week:
ROUND ROBIN (3X6) .05 UNITS APIECE 1 UNIT
- Scottie Scheffler win (+240) – Scottie won the American Express without breaking a sweat. There is no one on tour right now that can match this guy and he is going to be hard to beat once again.
- Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+126) – McNealy has finished in the top 10 here in back-to-back trips, and his early season West Coast form has become one of the most reliable betting angles in recent years. McNealy is once again firing on the west coast and has gained strokes putting in six of his last seven events.
- Jake Knapp Top 20 (+156) – Knapp is one of the most aesthetically pleasing players to watch on tour. The amount of clubhead and ball speed he can generate from such an easy swing is incredible. Knapp comes to Scottsdale red hot with three top 10s and gaining strokes putting in seven of his last eight events. In two trips here he has finished 28th and 44th.
- Sahith Theegala Top 30 (+134) – The Stadium Course is about as good of a course fit as you can find for Theegala. He loves the risk/reward setups, and if he is firing on all cylinders, he can take it really low here. Theegala has posted back to back top 10s so lets ride the form while he is hot. Putter is red hot as well, as he has gained 14 strokes to the field in putting over the last three events.
- Rasmus Hojgaard Top 30 (+134) – Last week it was his twin brother Nicolai on the tip sheet. This week we lean on the better putter of the two, and another player that will love the risk/reward setup. Hojgaard finished 12th here last season and comes to Scottsdale this week with four worldwide top 10 finishes since late August. He has only lost strokes putting twice since July.
- Kristoffer Reitan Top 40 (+128) – Back to the well on the world of golf’s best kept secret, and my most bet player over the last six months. This guy can flat out play, and the 66 he shot on the South Course at Torrey Pines on Sunday is proof of that. His length off the tee combined with his putting prowess put him in contention at many golf courses. Reitan will be seeing the Stadium Course for the first time, but he has the game to compete at a track like this. If Reitan can find consistency in his game and clean up his pitching and chipping, he will be a top 20 player in the world.