By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
If golf tournaments were only 36 holes, I am not sure the PGA Tip sheet would ever lose. It was a fantastic opening two rounds from five of the six placement picks from last week, with Alex Smalley being the only player not inside his placement number halfway through the tournament. From there it was a calamity over the weekend for everyone else. The five players (Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Nick Taylor, Tony Finau, and Xander Schauffele) to make the cut shot a combined 16 over par on the weekend and not a single one shot an under par round either day. In the end, Hickory, N.C., native J.T. Poston got the win in a playoff over Ryan Gerard. Poston was absolute nails down the stretch making an incredible par on 17 after having to lay up with his second shot. Gerard nailed a 35-foot birdie putt to take a one-shot lead, but Poston answered by dropping an 11-foot par putt to keep Gerard’s lead at one heading to the final hole. Poston then laced a 7 iron to just inside 8 feet to make birdie on the final hole and take it to a playoff. It was Poston’s fourh career win and biggest win since becoming a member of the PGA Tour. We now head north of the border for the Canadian Open, where Ryan Fox will be looking to defend his title from last year.
Past Canadian Open Winners, Odds, and Trends
2025, Ryan Fox (+6000) – Made seven cuts with two top 20 finishes and a win in his nine prior events.
2024, Robert MacIntyre (+7500) – Made the cut five times with two top-10 finishes in his nine previous events.
2023, Nick Taylor (+6500) – Made five cuts with a second-place finish in the nine events prior.
2022, Rory McIlroy (+850) – Six top 20 finishes, including five in the top 10, in the nine prior events.
2021 – CANCELED
RBC Canadian Open
It’s the final tune up for the third major of the year and the PGA Tour heads to Toronto for the Canadian Open, and for the second straight year the event will be held at TPC Toronto Osprey Valley. Last year’s winner Ryan Fox was second in the field in strokes gained tee to green and sixth in the field in strokes gained approach. Fox was playing some good golf coming in and had even already won earlier in the year. I think those things will be important to note for this year’s field as well.
The top of the odds board is led by Tommy Fleetwood, and rightfully so to an extent. Fleetwood was in contention to the end last week and even walked off the 16th green with a one-hot lead. Matt Fitzpatrick is having the best season of his career but stumbled a bit last week at the Memorial. Sam Burns is listed as the third favorite. Burns, much like Ludvig Aberg, has really struggled on or near the lead on Sundays over the past year and a half to two years. He is an incredible driver and putter of the golf ball and has an iron game to back it up. But, his wedge play has been mediocre, and as the tournament gets later, it usually gets worse. The prices for Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, and Burns seem a bit high, so we will be looking for some value a little further down this week.
The Betting Card
- COLLIN MORIKAWA (+2400), .2 UNITS TO WIN 4.8 UNITS – As recent as three weeks ago, if you saw Morikawa at double the price of Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, or Burns, it would have been an automatic play. However, in his last two events, Morikawa has struggled, so the question is, is this a sign of his form dipping? Or are we going to take the discount and look for him to get back to form? On this golf course, I am going to opt for the discount. A lot of approaches come from 100-150 yards, and 200-225 yards. Those are two distances Morikawa has a massive advantage on over the majority of this field. Prior to the two most recent tournaments, Morikawa ran off five straight top 10s, one of which was a win. I don’t really like the board a whole lot past the guys at 100/1, so we choose to invest here instead.
- WYNDHAM CLARK (+2600), .175 UNITS TO WIN 4.72 UNITS – I am a little surprised we get this high of a number on Clark this week. When this guy gets going, he is a top 5-10 player. Is it possible he is starting a run of form like the one he went on midway through the 2023 season and carried into the 2024 season that saw him win three times on three big-time golf courses? That is absolutely possible. He missed the playoff by a shot at the Memorial last week, and won two weeks before that. He has gained 32 strokes to the field in the last two events.
- JUSTIN ROSE (+2800), .175 UNITS TO WIN 5.07 UNITS – Is he finally getting accustomed to the new McLaren clubs? Rose hit a small dip in form after an equipment change, but the last two weeks have been a different story. Rose heads to Canada with back-to-back top 15 finishes and hit everything but the driver well here last year. It was his worst week off the tee all year. He has gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six events, and the full game looks to be heading in the right direction.
- ALEX NOREN (+3900), .125 UNITS TO WIN 5 UNITS – I really thought Noren was going to have a massive year. He played incredible golf on the DP World Tour in the fall, including a win, and came back to America fully healthy for the first time in a while. Noren hasn’t really seriously contended, but the numbers would suggest he is very close. He finished tied for ninth last week and hasn’t missed a cut since mid February. He has four straight finishes tied for 31st or better and two of those were in the top 10. More encouragingly, Noren is ninth in this field in total strokes gained over the last three months.
- ALEX FITZPATRICK (+4300), .125 UNITS TO WIN 5.5 UNITS – I guess we find out if I am his kryptonite this week. Last time we were on Fitzpatrick, he finished 75th at the PGA, his only result outside the top 20 since March. Four of those were top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour, and he backed it up again last week by tying for sixth at the Memorial. The “other” brother is the hot hand right now.
- JORDAN SMITH (+6800), .1 UNITS TO WIN 6.8 UNITS – Smith’s first year on the PGA Tour has been hit or miss, but the irons have not. He has gained strokes on approach in every start but two this year. The putter has been ice cold, but this is a track that should fancy Smith’s great ball striking ability. Smith is currently rolling in a few putts as he leads his U.S. Open qualifying sectional. If that putter can find it’s way north of the border, Smith will have a chance to win.
- COREY CONNERS (+7000), .1 UNITS TO WIN 7 UNITS – Speaking of ice cold putters, no one has one more frequently than Conners. If he putted like an average PGA player he would have already amassed more wins on tour than the likes of Rickie Fowler, Burns, and many other players with way lower odds week in week out. We are getting a massive price discount for a guy who has only missed one cut this year and is playing in his home country’s national open. There isn’t much more motivation than we could hope for here. Conners hit it terrible last week at the Memorial, but the last time he lost strokes on approach in back to back tournaments we were starting to get prepared for the last World Cup. In this event he has finished four straight times in the top 30 with two of those being in the top 10.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOTS
- MACKENZIE HUGHES 110/1
- MATHIEU PAVON 275/1
- LUKE CLANTON 280/1
- DANNY WILLET 1100/1
DISCLAIMER: Sports betting involves risk. I-81 Sports and its contributors provide analysis and picks for entertainment purposes only. No bet is guaranteed, and all wagers carry the risk of loss. If you struggle with gambling, help is available. Contact the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700 or visit ncpg.org. In Tennessee, contact the Tennessee Problem Gambling Help Line at 1-800-889-9789.