By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
What a roller coaster week of highs and lows. The first game on the card, an under, saw 20 points in the blink of an eye and it looked like a quick loss to start the year. Then we saw USC, Virginia, North Carolina, and TCU lock in defensively to give us a 3-0 start to the week. After Hawaii scored late in the fourth quarter to take a 27-23 lead over Stanford as a 4.5 point underdog, a 4-0 start to the year seemed like a lock. Unfortunately in sports betting, nothing is final until the clock reads zeroes and it only took us four games into the season to catch our first horrible beat. Then, after a good-looking first half for UNLV, the Runnin’ Rebels completely crumbled in the second half and we take another loss for a 3-2 start to the season.
Boise State (+24.5) @ Oregon (3:30 PM, CBS/Paramount Plus)
I don’t think there is any doubt that Oregon will be a serious national championship contender this season, but this is one of those lines that you just automatically take it because it’s Boise State and you’re getting over three possessions. It’s not like Boise State is starting from scratch with its roster either. They’re going to take a fourth-year starting quarterback in Maddux Madsen into Autzen. Boise State also added some depth and quality in the receiving corps through the transfer portal. Even if the Ducks can amass a 30 point lead, I think the back door could be open for an offense that should have some quality.
Toledo (+10.5) @ Michigan State (Friday, 8 PM, FS1)
I really thought this line would be closer to a pick ‘em. Pat Fitzgerald takes over at Michigan State, and while the Spartans will most likely improve, this is too many points to give a decent team in his first game. Expectations are high for the Rockets this season, and they should compete for a MAC title. Sticking with the previously mentioned game’s theme, Toledo will take a veteran quarterback on the road to try and go into East Lansing and pull the upset. Finally, since 2020, Toledo boasts a 5-2 against the spread record as a road underdog, while Michigan State is 5-12-2 against the spread as a home favorite.
Northern Illinois (+31.5) @ Iowa (4:15, Big Ten Network)
In another angle similar to the first game mentioned, there is another automatic rule. Anytime Iowa is favored by 30 or more, take the other side. Iowa has a hard enough time scoring 30 points in offensive drills with no defense. In this game we get a Northern Illinois team that is 13-8-1 as a road underdog against the spread. Northern Illinois has pulled some big upsets in previous seasons as a big underdog as well (Notre Dame in 2024). Iowa is also going through a quarterback battle, as a new signal caller will be taking over for the Hawkeyes. With a lot of unknowns on the offensive side of the ball I think 40 points will be a tall task for a team that never does that anyways. Just one score from the Huskies and this line could easily hit.
Clemson vs LSU (-9.5) (7:30 PM, ABC)
GULP. These are games I typically try and avoid. There is a lot at play with LSU right now, and unless you have been living under a rug the last four months, we really don’t need to get into it. But the first glaring disparity here is the talent gap. LSU is just flat out going to bring better players to the table in the opener, and they have a head coach that, probably more than anyone in the new landscape of transfer portals and recruiting, can find a way to gel a team of new players quite quickly. The icing on the cake for me is Lane Kiffin’s record at Ole Miss against the spread out of conference. Ole Miss was 18-8 against the spread in non-conference games under Kiffin, while Clemson is just 7-20 against the spread against non-conference opponents since 2020.
Furman @ Tennessee (-13.5) 1st quarter (3:30 PM, SEC Network Plus)
Everybody’s favorite bet returns for yet another season. In a previous Friday 5 article we outlined Tennessee’s dominance at home against the spread in Josh Heupel’s tenure. Going back to his UCF days, Heupel has been the most profitable coach in college football against the spread in the first half. For this game, we get a nice line of 13.5. 14.5 might have been a tall task, but Heupel has shown he isn’t afraid to come out swinging early, and Furman really struggled on offense last week against Anderson College. This is a huge step up in class for the Paladins, and barring an unforeseen early score, I think the Vols will just need two touchdowns in the first to hit this.
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