By J.T. CHADWELL
What a whirlwind it has been over the last five weeks, but if you have bet with us on our average- and high-risk plays over the course of 102 games, you have at least made a little bit of pocket change to this point. Our overall profit to this point comes to 1.7 units. As the saying goes, “it ain’t much, but it’s an honest day’s work.”
For this edition of the cheat sheet we will look back and highlight where we were right and where we were wrong over the last month, and make some picks and some prop bets for the final, this Sunday at 3 p.m.
WHERE I-81 WAS RIGHT!
- BELGIUM TO ADVANCE TO THE QUARTERFINALS – Coming in, we had Belgium pegged as the team that might’ve had the easiest draw so we played Belgium at +150 to make the quarterfinals. After looking quite mediocre in the group stage, the draw played out just the way we wanted and Belgium in the end caught two winnable matches and made it exactly as far as we thought.
- MICHAEL OLISE TO LEAD THE CUP IN ASSISTS – While this ticket is not quite home yet, Olise has a 5-4 lead on Lionel Messi heading into the final match. Olise was France’s best creator and the job that Spain did to limit him in the semi-final match was fantastic and probably the biggest difference maker for the Spanish.
- FRANCE TO MAKE THE SEMIFINALS – Like the Belgians, the French benefited from a pretty soft draw through the quarterfinals. To make things even better, they played Paraguay instead of Germany in the quarterfinal matchup and the +130 ticket cashed pretty easily and was never really in danger.
- AUSTRALIA – In the end, Australia’s matches were our most profitable team for the World Cup at +8.45 units. It’s a good lesson in understanding price, as over half of that came from one single ticket we had on Australia beating Turkey in it’s first game at +425.
WHERE I-81 WAS WRONG!
- ENGLAND LOSING IN THE QUARTERFINALS – I would make this bet 100 times again given the way this tournament played out. England showed incredible resiliency going to Mexico’s home stadium and beating them with 10 men and then outlasting a very game Norway team in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately for England, its fans will never remember any of these matches, and the lasting memory will be the two Argentina goals late to send the Three Lions packing.
- CRISTIANO RONALDO and PORTUGAL – Look, we weren’t the only ones wrong about Portugal, and most were. But, it was a very disappointing World Cup for this Portugal team. Roberto Martinez just could not find the right lineup to get this team going. Portugal came to America with some of the classiest midfielders European Club football has to offer, and arguably the best left back in the world. Portugal leaves with Vitihna being subbed early in most games and Nuno Mendes nursing a hamstring injury. This was also more than likely, Cristiano Ronaldo’s last World Cup and it’s going to end with the memory of his lack of pace and inability to have a true impact on pretty much any game other than the Uzbekistan game.
- CAPE VERDE! – What a performance from this squad. Spain and Argentina are playing for the final and neither was able to take care of the small African country in regular time. It was an absolutely amazing performance from them and really gave us perspective on why we play the games. When a team plays this far above their baseline performance, it should come as no shock they were our least profitable team throughout the competition coming in at minus 10.8 units. Can’t be mad at that, we just tip our hats and thank them for taking us on a wild ride.
WORLD CUP FINAL WRITE UP AND PICKS
SPAIN VS ARGENTINA
We have finally arrived at the final match of the World Cup, and it doesn’t really come as much of a surprise that it is these two teams battling it out for the trophy. Spain has been the best defensive side by far, and Argentina has been the most resilient and have the best player. Argentina has really benefited in these knockout games from teams curling up into a ball late and trying not to lose. Argentina has dug themselves a hole many times, and relied on Messi to bail them out. That pattern absolutely cannot continue on Sunday. Spain will not park the bus the minute it gets a goal and will continue to play its game for 90 minutes. I look for Spain to control most of the ball here. Spain plays with an elegance full of precise passing, and a purpose to execute its plan. Spain is going to score and most likely score first. Can Argentina rally one more time? I think Spain will be too much in the end. Now let’s look at some prop bets for the match on Sunday:
- LAMINE YAMAL OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON TARGET (+155) – Argentina fouls. A LOT. And likes letting its fullbacks defend 1v1. Yamal is not scared of pulling the trigger and if Argentina turns him back inside instead of allowing him to get crosses in, Yamal is going to be shooting a ton. He will also likely get fouled, which will lead to free kick shots. Make sure to play this on a book that honors the sub rule in case he gets subbed out late. Over 2.5 shots on target (+550) AND over 3.5 shots on target (+2000) are interesting plays as well.
- GAME UNDER 7.5 CORNERS (+115) – I think this first half could be a lot similar to the Argentina/England matchup without the foul. Spain will be as patient as it needs to be and Argentina probably won’t be over aggressive early, as all of its success seems to come late. Neither team really attacks very wide either, and I don’t expect a ton of shots coming in that could get deflected out for corners either.
- FIRST GOALSCORER DANI OLMO (+1100) – Olmo likes to show up in big games and he’s been knocking on the door for a goal at this World Cup. He has been making some nice inside runs and is also capable of scoring from outside the box.
- ENZO FERNANDEZ 1+ SHOT ON TARGET IN EACH HALF (+2000) – Spain’s patience with the ball makes opponents very anxious. That anxiety leads to unwarranted shots, and if Spain is able to lock down Messi to the tune of Olise, the guy that will be taking those shots is Fernandez. Fernandez scored the game-tying goal against England on a shot from outside the box. I could see him trying the same multiple times in the final.
- SPAIN 2 ARGENTINA 0 CORRECT SCORE (+1000) – I could see this one being 1-0 for a long time and as Argentina throws bodies forward late, maybe Spain picks off an easy one to seal the deal.
We hope everyone has enjoyed betting with us throughout this World Cup.
Let’s do it again in four years!
DISCLAIMER: Sports betting involves risk. I-81 Sports and its contributors provide analysis and picks for entertainment purposes only. No bet is guaranteed, and all wagers carry the risk of loss. If you struggle with gambling, help is available. Contact the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700 or visit ncpg.org. In Tennessee, contact the Tennessee Problem Gambling Help Line at 1-800-889-9789.